Since the turn of the century, no team that’s lost by at least 40 points in a Grand Final has progressed beyond the semi-finals the following year.
While still only one-third of the way through the season, the early signs suggest Sydney could become the latest casualty of that statistic.
The Swans’ 29-point loss to Collingwood at the MCG was their second loss in as many attempts at the venue since last year’s 81-point defeat to Geelong in the 2022 decider. It was also their fifth defeat from their past six games this season — a streak that included a 50-point loss to Melbourne and a 93-point loss to Geelong.
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Frustratingly for Swans fans – and no doubt coach John Longmire – there’s evidence to suggest the panic button shouldn’t be hit, even though the team sits 11th on the ladder with a 3-5 record.
The Swans lost to Port Adelaide by two points in Round 4 then the Giants by one point in Round 7 – two games that easily could’ve swung in Sydney’s favour. The Swans also led flag favourites Collingwood by eight points at half-time and only trailed by five points at three quarter-time before being overrun by the best fourth-term team in the competition.
Longmire in the past two weeks has lauded his side’s intensity, effort and attitude, particularly with several key players still on the sidelines. Only execution has let them down.
That’s the glass half-full approach on those three games, though.
Longmire takes aim at Buddy boos | 00:31
Ultimately the Swans led Port Adelaide by 20 points nine minutes into the last quarter and led the Giants by 24 points 10 minutes into the last quarter – and they still lost both games. And on Sunday, the Swans kicked just 1.4 after half-time compared to Collingwood’s 7.5.
The Swans are now a game-and-a-half outside of the top eight and only half-a-game ahead of Richmond — a side widely criticised for its form this season — while they’re just 4.5 per cent ahead of Fremantle — a side copping significant heat.
“We don’t have ladders that say ‘oh they were unlucky, it worked for a bit’ – no one says that. It’s win or loss,” AFL 360 co-host Mark Robinson said on Fox Footy.
“They’re in a bad spot. They’re 11th, equal with Fremantle, the Giants and Gold Coast – and at different times this year, two of those teams (the Dockers and Suns) have been slaughtered by the commentary. But no one’s talking about the Swans.”
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PERSONNEL ISSUES
Any discussion about the Swans’ woes must start with their injury list.
Most bruising of those unavailable are the key position cogs. Paddy McCartin, Dane Rampe and Sam Reid are all players that can play a significant role in the Swans’ structure, while Joel Amartey was beginning to emerge before he suffered a significant hamstring injury in Gather Round.
Those are players Longmire both doesn’t have access to and is unlikely to have access to in at least the next month of football.
No. 1 ruck Tom Hickey also hasn’t played a game yet this season.
St Kilda hall of fame member Leigh Montagna suggested on Fox Footy’s First Crack a recalibration of expectations for the Swans may be needed in the footy world.
“I think we’ve got to now look and go ‘This is what they’ve got, this is their lot in the backline.’ Paddy McCartin, probably not going to play again, Dane Rampe still a fair way off,” Montagna said.
“Their season is starting to be on the line almost with what they’ve got.”
CONCERNING TRENDS
After a couple of convincing wins over Gold Coast and Hawthorn to start the season, the Swans’ form line has plummeted.
Since Round 3, Champion Data stats show the Swans are the third-worst team in the competition for points against and the second-worst team in the competition for opposition points from stoppages. They also rank 16th for points against, 13th for opposition scores per inside 50 and 14th for contested possession differential.
Such numbers paint a picture of a side lacking significantly in almost all areas of the ground, but particularly at the coalface. The Swans lost the contested possession count in their defeats to the three top premiership contenders: Melbourne (-34), Geelong (-20) and Collingwood (-9).
“It has been an area of concern for Sydney around their contest work, their mid work. Have they got the depth to go with sides like Collingwood at the moment?” triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown told Fox Footy on Sunday.
Swans score then feed Daicos | 00:42
Brown was particularly startled by how the Swans appeared to over-possess the ball against the Magpies in the second half.
In the second quarter, Sydney had 110 disposals, 15 inside 50s and took just 29 marks as they took the Pies on to score 4.6 to 1.1. But it was a different story in the third term, taking 49 marks from 127 disposals and 10 inside 50s for a result of 0.2.
“In the second quarter … they went at the Pies. They attacked, the game was a bit messy, they flicked the handballs on, they found the shorter targets,” Brown told On The Couch.
“I don’t know why they changed and I don’t know what the message was at half-time … They (the Magpies) may have (shifted something defensively), but I thought it was more of an intent … To me, it looked like the pace went out of the game.”
INDIVIDUALS DOWN ON FORM
What would also concern Swans fans is that several players are well below their expected output.
Lance Franklin has kicked just 7.7 from five games, including two goalless games against the Power and Magpies. It’s the first time Franklin has averaged less than one-and-a-half goals per game since his debut year for Hawthorn in 2005.
The 36-year-old is still seen as a key member of the Swans’ best 22, but his output is clearly down, even on recent years.
Swans rallying around star man Buddy | 01:37
More concerning, though, is the form of 27-year-old Isaac Heeney, who’s also kicked just 7.7 but from eight games.
It’s the first time since 2018 Heeney has averaged less than one goal per game – and in 2018, Heeney was playing predominantly as a midfielder, averaging 20.4 disposals, 10.4 contested possessions and 3.5 clearances per outing. This year, Heeney is only averaging 14.9 touches.
“He’s meant to be at the peak of his powers. He’s kicked seven goals in seven weeks, another quiet game for him, no real influence,” Montagna said.
“Maybe they’ve got to try and spark something up. Their forward line, which was their strength last year … it’s become really clunky and disjointed over the last month or so.”
Heeney’s struggles are mirrored by those of Tom Papley, who from Round 3 onwards has had 21 shots at goal for a return of just seven majors, barring of course his stellar six-goal, 25-disposal haul against Richmond in Round 5.
“I’ll say it: I think Isaac Heeney and Tom Papley are far too inconsistent for their status of ‘big game players’,’” Robinson said. “They are good players, but great players do it nearly every week or once every two weeks. Not once every five.
“Everyone goes ‘oh Heeney’s a star’. Well he was All-Australian last year … I don’t think he’s got to the level this year. Tom Papley was injured, kicked six goals in one game and he’s kicked (11) for the rest of the time.
“I think those two players – and others – but those two players need to lift.”
James Rowbottom’s hasn’t won as much ball on the outside this season — his contested possession rate has increased from 50 to 60 per cent, but his disposal and score involvement averages are down from last year — while personnel issues have also taken Callum Mills away from the midfield at times.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Three winnable matches against Fremantle, North Melbourne and Carlton are on the horizon before the mid-season bye, which Sydney needs more than most.
A bruising fortnight awaits after that, with a clash against the Saints followed by a trip to the Gabba to face Brisbane.
The names on paper are still strong and other players are having solid seasons. Chad Warner, Luke Parker and Errol Gulden have been consistent performers around the midfield area, Nick Blakey and Ollie Florent have been terrific down back and top draft pick Logan McDonald has arguably been his side’s most consistent forward, booting 15.5 from eight games. Plus there’s ample time for the likes of Heeney, Papley, Mills and even Franklin to regain form.
Premiership window revisited – Round 8 | 01:12
Swans fans can also take heart from the fact their team under Longmire has tended to finish seasons stronger than they started.
We all know what the Swans did in 2017 from 0-6, winning 14 of 16 games to make the finals. Then in 2021 they won seven of their final eight home and away games to surge into a surprise elimination final berth.
Last year, they won 11 of their last 14 home and away games to finish inside the top four on their way to a Grand Final berth.
But they were 5-3 after Round 8 in 2022. This year they’re 3-5.
“They’ve got areas to fix up,” Robinson said.
“John Longmire has shown over a long period of time that he knows how to find answers, he knows how to find triggers. So we wait and watch on this football club.”
