It has been a decade since China announced an ambitious 50-point reform plan to bring to life the “football dream” of avid fan President Xi Jinping. With the stroke of his pen, playing football at school was no longer a choice for students – it was compulsory.
Textbooks on the game were introduced to the curriculum for more than 5000 elementary and secondary schools. Football’s administrative structures in China were promptly overhauled.
It signalled the start of a years-long investment frenzy in which Chinese businessmen starting buying clubs throughout the world (including in Australia), clubs in the Chinese Super League began spending obscene sums of money on the world’s top players, and millions of dollars were channelled into elite development programs and facilities – all in service of Xi’s plans for China to qualify for, host and then, one day, win the World Cup.
It has also been eight years since FIFA announced the controversial expansion of the World Cup from 32 to 48 teams, in time for the 2026 edition, to take place in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Asia’s allocation increased from four direct slots to eight, partly to appease the game’s nascent powerbrokers in the Middle East, but mostly to increase the probability of China being involved, and FIFA’s television audience ballooning thanks to a population of 1.4 billion.
A study by Futures Sport & Entertainment projected that in the event of Chinese qualification for 2026, the World Cup’s worldwide viewership would jump by 3 per cent, outweighing the impact of any realistic combination of the other 15 new teams.
So far … no good.
Then-German chancellor Angela Merkel and Chinese President Xi Jinping greet players before a match between the under-12 teams of Germany and China in Berlin in 2017.Credit: AP
Despite the leg-up from FIFA, Team Dragon’s hopes of qualifying for next year’s World Cup – directly, at least – rely on what would be an unlikely victory over the Socceroos on Tuesday night in Hangzhou.
Nothing short of a win would be enough to keep alive the possibility of a top-two finish for China in Group C, where they are bottom of the pile on six points. That’s where they will stay if they lose to Australia, a team they’ve beaten only once before in World Cup qualifying, in 2008. And that was a dead rubber for the Socceroos, who, under the late Pim Verbeek, had already stamped their ticket for South Africa 2010 and rolled out an under-strength team.
Wenneng Xie celebrates scoring against the Socceroos in October.Credit: Getty Images
Stranger things have happened, but Chinese football is at a low ebb. The CSL, for starters, is struggling to keep up with its rivals in Asia: eight-time champions Guangzhou Evergrande no longer exist, nor do Jiangsu Sainty, who went bust three months after winning the 2020 title. Shanghai Port, the title holders coached by former Socceroo Kevin Muscat, crashed out meekly in the AFC Champions League’s round of 16.
Talk of a Chinese World Cup bid, meanwhile, has disappeared entirely. They were due to host the Asian Cup in 2023, but had to hand back the rights due to pandemic-related restrictions.
And while football fields have apparently sprung up across China during the past 10 years as part of Xi’s infrastructure drive, enabling more children to play the sport, it is hardly being reflected in the national team.
Ranked No.90 in the world by FIFA, between New Zealand and Curacao, it’s been tough going for Team Dragon in their bid to reach the game’s pinnacle for the first time since 2002. While they recovered from a first-up 7-0 hiding by Japan with wins over Indonesia and Bahrain, subsequent defeats to Japan (again) and Saudi Arabia have left their top-two hopes hanging by a thread.
As such, not unlike Indonesia last week in Sydney, the Socceroos are expecting China to come out and attack from the start on Tuesday night, backed by a crowd of up to 80,000 fans. The memory of Adelaide Oval in October – when China jumped the Socceroos with the first goal in Tony Popovic’s first game in charge before succumbing 3-1 – suggests they can pose a real threat.
“They’re going to be coming out swinging,” said Socceroos defender Cameron Burgess.
“They’re playing at home in front of what looks to be a big crowd … we’re under no illusions, it’s going to be a difficult task for us. We need to stand by our authority in the game and do what we can do to hurt them as well.”
For the Socceroos, a win is essential, but their qualification equation won’t be clear until Japan and Saudi Arabia’s match, also on Tuesday night, is complete. Japan became the first non-host nation to confirm their spot at the World Cup last week, and can do Australia a big favour by beating the Saudis. In that event, Popovic’s side would need up to two points in June to qualify directly, but only if they topple China first.
WORLD CUP QUALIFYING PERMUTATIONS FOR THE SOCCEROOS
If the Socceroos WIN their next match against China:
- they will remain in second position on Group C and move to 13 points;
- third-placed Saudi Arabia will have between 9-12 points (next match is away to Japan, who have already qualified);
- if Saudi Arabia lose to Japan, the Socceroos will need one to two more points to clinch a top-two finish and seal World Cup qualification, depending on other results;
- if Saudi Arabia draw with or beat Japan, the Socceroos may need up to three more points to clinch a top-two finish;
If the Socceroos DRAW their next match against China:
- they could drop to third place in Group C if Saudi Arabia beat China;
- ensures they will need a win over Japan (home) or Saudi Arabia (away) to stay in control of their top-two destiny;
If the Socceroos LOSE their next match against China:
- they could drop to third place in Group C if Saudi Arabia beat China, but will have just a one-point gap over China and potentially Indonesia or Bahrain, if one of them beat the other;
- would place top-two hopes in extreme risk and leave open the possibility of missing qualification altogether without two wins in June.
