Since the U.S. men’s national team learned their path through the World Cup back on April 1, just about everyone picked the opening game against Wales as a must-win. Wales, which hadn’t qualified for a World Cup since 1964, were considered arguably the most beatable team in the group.
But it was more than that: since the World Cup expanded to 32 teams in 1998, a whopping 84% of teams who have won their first group stage game eventually reached the knockout round.
Now that the USMNT failed to get that win, instead settling for a draw on Monday to Wales to open the 2022 World Cup, what are their odds of advancing now? Is their match against England on Friday a must-win, or do they still have some wiggle room?
Predictions: What projection models see after USA draw
Before the tournament, FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index gave the USMNT a 53% chance to reach the knockout round of the World Cup. Now that they’ve opened the tournament with a draw to Wales, their chances have dropped to 45%.
Note that FiveThirtyEight’s SPI gives Wales worse chances at only 37%. The forecast is a measurement of “overall team strength,” they say, with both the attack and defense represented as the two key components. Based on that, the SPI isn’t as confident in the Welsh team.
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In the rest of Group B, England have a whopping 93% chance of advancing after their impressive 6-2 win over Iran on Monday, per the SPI. Iran are left with just a 25% chance to advance.
Other models weren’t as keen on the USMNT’s chances to advance out of the group from the start, though. The Alan Turing Institute in London, for instance, gave the USMNT only a 36.1% chance to reach out the knockout stage before the tournament even started. The model hasn’t been updated since the USMNT drew to Wales on Monday, but we’re sure the result didn’t help those odds.
Betting: What oddsmakers think is next for USA
The USMNT’s chances to win Group B have taken a tumble after their draw to Wales, falling from +10000 to +12500, but oddsmakers still seem to believe the Americans are likely to advance out of the group stage at -115, per FanDuel.
Before the Wales match, the USMNT was -118 to advance, meaning that bookmaker confidence was strong going into the start of the tournament and still remains high after Monday’s draw to Wales.
