In 2026, the World Cup will expand from 32 to 48 teams, likely with a structure of 16 groups of three. I am all for expansion — it will allow us to get to know more teams, players, coaches and fan bases, which is almost always a plus in my book — but I hate the thought of teams being guaranteed only two games before elimination. With everyone having played two matches in the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, we’ve only just begun to get to know these teams and set the stakes for what’s to follow.
– World Cup 2022: News and features | Schedule | Squads
What is to follow over the next four days? Pretty much everything.
After two rounds of matches, only three teams have officially clinched advancement to the knockout phase (France, Brazil and Portugal), and only two have officially been eliminated (Qatar and Canada). Twenty-eight teams still have work to do, and the plot twists have already been legion.
Let’s take stock of where we’ve come over the past nine days and where we still have to go.
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Whose odds have changed the most (for the better)?
For the most part, the teams that began the competition as the most likely to advance have continued apace. Before the World Cup, FiveThirtyEight’s SPI ratings gave six teams at least an 80% chance of reaching the round of 16 — Brazil, Argentina, France, Portugal, Spain and England — and as things currently stand, five of those are at 90% or higher. (Argentina are at 78% after suffering a shocking upset loss to Saudi Arabia but responding to beat Mexico.)
Some other teams, however, have seen their stocks soar.
Morocco (91% chance to advance, up from 46% at the start of the competition). There was nothing enjoyable about Morocco’s 0-0 draw against Croatia in each team’s opener, but when combined with a 2-0 win over Belgium on Sunday, Walid Regragui’s squad are well-positioned to advance. Stars Hakim Ziyech and Achraf Hakimi have combined for an assist and six chances created, Fiorentina midfielder Sofyan Amrabat has been like a machine when it comes to ball recoveries, and the Moroccans thoroughly outplayed Belgium. Either a draw with Canada or a Croatia win over Belgium is all they need to advance.
