Tom Lynch, Joe Daniher and, dare we say, Dustin Martin loom large in Thursday night’s elimination final, but can the Lions overcome their poor finals record?
Jon Pierik looks at the key questions.
Lion tamer? Star forward Tom Lynch can be the difference in Thursday night’s elimination final at the Gabba.Credit:Getty Images
Are the Lions for real?
That’s the big question heading into September. They appeared set for a top-four finish but slipped to sixth, having leaked too many goals over the final month of the season. Team defence, as coach Chris Fagan conceded, has been an issue. The absence of Marcus Adams (concussion) is a major blow, leaving Harris Andrews as the key man in defence. Their 1-5 win-loss record through the finals over the past three years reeks of a team lacking in belief when the stakes are at their greatest. Two defeats to Melbourne and a stinging loss to the Tigers in round 20, the latter having coughed up a 42-point lead, means this clash shapes as much as a psychological battle as it is physical against a side that has been there and done that – on three occasions.
Is home ground an advantage for the Lions?
It should be but the “Gabbatoir” has been anything but in recent finals. The Lions have lost four times at home under Fagan, in part because of their inaccuracy in front of goal. This offsets the win they had over the Tigers in the 2020 qualifying final. However, the Lions have lost only twice in 11 games there this season, and won nine of their last 10 there last year. It’s now time to get the job done when it matters the most.
Will Dusty be rusty?
Perhaps, but it’s not a major concern. It’s been more than nine weeks since Martin played his last game, the man regarded as the best finals performer, perhaps of all time, hampered by a hamstring strain. There had been a setback or two in his recovery but he has lifted his intensity over the past fortnight, and has trained strongly. Even if Dusty is not quite match fit, any defender – Brandon Starcevich is likely to spend time on him – will be nervous when he lines up inside attacking 50. The three-time Norm Smith medallist only needs to have 15 or so touches to have a major impact, and if left one-out it could take only one goal from him to turn the contest.
Can the Lions stop Lynch?
Having recovered from an adductor issue, Lynch is the man who could tear this game apart. He has been a man on a mission over the past month, booting 21 goals in four games (including four against the Lions in round 20) since returning from a hamstring strain. Harris Andrews is likely to get the job on him but, even if he is quiet, the Tigers have weapons aplenty. Noah Cumberland booted five goals when the teams last met, and there’s Jack Riewoldt and Shai Bolton. And here comes Dusty. It’s an imposing forward line – the Lions will be under pressure.
It’s time for Joe Daniher to take a stand if the Lions are to improve their miserable finals record of recent years.Credit:Getty Images
Can Joe take a stand?
While the Tigers have a deep forward line, and are the league’s No.1 scoring side, the Lions are No.2 for scoring. Matthew Lloyd has put some heat on Daniher to take a stand. He has 36 goals this season, behind small forward Charlie Cameron (47), but had a finals campaign to forget last year, managing only one major in a straight-sets exit. He had only six touches in the semi-final loss to the Western Bulldogs, far from good enough for a high-priced, recruit. It’s now time for the former Bomber to deliver.
What the coaches say
Chris Fagan: “I look at the Richmond team that we play and remember back when ‘Dimma’ [Damien Hardwick] got them into three elimination finals in a row and they couldn’t actually win and then they missed the finals completely then came out and won the premiership the year after that. I’m a bit of a historian on the game, and I look at teams and their progression towards hopefully winning premierships, and usually there’s a few disappointments along the way, and I feel like we’ve had those in the last three years.”
Damien Hardwick: “He [Dustin Martin] will play predominantly forward. We know he’s played that role before and he’s quite capable. Against Brisbane he’s had some really good games like that. What we do know is that players of Dustin’s ilk put themselves where they need to be.”
Odds
Richmond: $1.72
Brisbane: $2.15
Source: Pointsbet
Verdict
Richmond by eight points.
