Forecast northerly winds could see the prestigious Sydney-Hobart race record challenged by the supermaxi yachts when the often-brutal bluewater classic sets sail on Boxing Day (1pm start AEDT).
The big boats are predicted to get off to a flying start from Sydney harbour, with light winds becoming blustery, propelling them down Australia’s east coast before they tackle the notorious Bass Strait towards Hobart.
“For the most part, we are looking at northerly winds and having those northerly winds increase through the first half of the race with a trough coming through on Wednesday,” the NSW Bureau of Meteorology’s Gabrielle Woodhouse said in a long-range forecast.
It augurs well for the 100-foot supermaxis among the 109-strong fleet — Andoo Comanche, Black Jack, Wild Oats and LawConnect — as they battle one of the world’s most challenging ocean events.
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They could feasibly make it to Hobart without any significant upwind sailing, while the rest of the fleet — slower mid-to-small sized boats — face two or more weather patterns with the trough shifting winds to south-southeast and rain developing.
Comanche holds the record for the 628-nautical-mile (1,200-km) endurance test of one day, 9 hours, 15min and 24sec, set in 2017.
Yachting meteorologist Roger Badham told reporters it remained to be seen whether the time could be lowered.
“It’s a very good race record, that’s part of the reason it may not go,” he said.
“I think it will depend on the first six hours of the race and the last six hours, how quickly they can get into second and third gear going down the coast and what breeze there is at the end.” Comanche navigator Justin Shaffer said the forecast was “generally good for us as we like going downwind”.
“We’ll have a good chance of being ahead (after the start) … by how much, we’ll see,” he added.
Michael Bellingham, who has sailed in 29 Sydney-Hobarts and will this year navigate the mid-sized TP52 Patrice, concurred that “the big boats will probably do this in one weather pattern”.
“How this changes and pans out on Wednesday will affect how the (rest of the) fleet do in this race,” he added.
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“It will be interesting to see what sort of wind strengths and sea conditions we get across Bass Strait.” Black Jack took line honours last year after a tight tussle with LawConnect, ending years of frustrating near misses to cross the finish line on the River Derwent after two days, 12 hours, 37min and 17sec.
Ichi Ban was the overall handicap winner, which takes into account the yachts’ sizes, pipping rival Celestial in a race where dangerous waves and weather conditions saw many withdraw.
Storms are part and parcel of the punishing race, which began in 1945. Six men died, five boats sunk and 55 sailors were rescued during the 1998 event, when a deep depression exploded over the fleet in the Bass Strait.
International boats are making a return after the race was cancelled in 2020 for the first time due to the pandemic, and Covid hit the fleet last year.
Entrants come from Germany (Orione), Hong Kong (Antipodes), Hungary (Cassiopeia 68), New Caledonia (Eye Candy and Poulpito), New Zealand (Caro), Britain (Sunrise) and the United States (Warrior Won).
Sunrise is a proven ocean racer, winning the 2021 Fastnet Race in Britain, while Caro has been tipped to take out overall honours, although skipper Max Klink played down the possibility.
“I do not think we are the favourite,” he said.
“It’s a very strong fleet of 52s.”
