World rugby is currently very unpredictable – except it seems when it comes to the Springboks in Australia.
The Wallabies’ win in Adelaide last weekend continued their remarkable home record against South Africa, which stretches back decades. They haven’t been beaten in Australia by South Africa in almost 10 years, and even that loss was something of a collector’s item.
There were some momentum shifts in Adelaide that were unique to the Test – in particular Nic White milking a yellow card to Faf de Klerk, an act that was ultimately rewarded when Marika Koroibete scored an important try at the start of the second half when the Springboks were down to 14 men.
Refs won’t buy that from White again. In fact, you can be sure that at some point between now and the Rugby World Cup a genuine grievance will be overlooked.
However, that doesn’t really explain why the Wallabies have such a hold over the Springboks at home over a long period. The answer to that conundrum, if there is an easy one, can probably be found in watching the Springboks against the All Blacks over the years, as much as watching them play Australia.
When South Africa play New Zealand, they know exactly who they are. They define themselves by the opposition. They are all about set-piece, kick-chase, defensive pressure and goalkicking. They understand exactly what they have to do to apply pressure to New Zealand.
I think when they come to Australia, they find the Wallabies a much more elusive target. They are lulled into playing a bit more rugby. They are caught between two worlds.
Marika Koroibete’s try-saving tackle will be played on highlight reels for a long time.Credit:Stan Sport
There are some clues of this in Marika Koroibete’s trysaver on Makazole Mapimpi last weekend. Of the six players closest to Koroibete and Mapimpi, five were Wallabies (Hunter Paisami, Len Ikitau, Noah Lolesio, Reece Hodge and Nic White).
That’s a consequence of the Springboks’ transfer to the edge being clunky after the Wallabies defended the maul well. As the South African back line wasn’t well organised, they didn’t have anyone to hold the Wallabies defence before they went wide to Mapimpi.
It was not the only time the Springboks got burnt when they tried to play, including an attack in the 17th minute that will go down as one of the most un-Springboks like phases in recent years. It started with a lovely chip kick by No.13 Lukhanyo Am, a brilliant regather from prop Ox Nche, superb hands from second-rower Lood de Jager, and ultimately a penalty to Australia after a turnover from Fraser McReight.
Nothing explains the Springboks’ current modus operandi (at least against the All Blacks) better than that phase of play. You don’t get any points for artistic merit – the smarter option is to back their scrum, back their maul, and back their goalkicker (Handre Pollard’s radar went missing in Adelaide).
Fraser McReight celebrates his try during the Wallabies’ first-up win over South Africa last week.Credit:Getty
You would expect the Springboks to go back to their DNA in Sydney on Saturday. Sure, Damian Willemse offers more of a running option at No.10 than Pollard, but with rain forecast for the Test the Springboks are not going to repeat their loose moments in Adelaide. Two minutes after the McReight penalty mentioned above, Pollard knocked on trying to look for a miracle offload. That’s just not who they are.
On Saturday, they have opted for what is arguably their best front row of Steven Kitshoff, Malcolm Marx and Frans Malherbe (although the injured Bongi Mbonambi is criminally underrated), and probably their form No.8 (Jasper Wiese) and No.9 (Jaden Hendrikse).
That is a team picked to provide a set-piece platform from which Wiese and flanker Franco Mostert can carry hard at the Wallabies. It’s set up for close quarters combat. In terms of style, Sydney will be a very different contest from Adelaide.
The Wallabies see the storm coming. Given the holes they found in the Springboks defence last week with some excellent running lines and footwork (not enough has been said about Len Ikitau’s contribution in attack), they have retained the 6-2 split on the bench.
They are capable of going back-to-back against the Springboks, but this week may be a much harder grind.
