After many years of losing lustre, Super Rugby Pacific got a lot right in 2025, and a bunch of regular-season stats released last week highlighted why many people have returned to the game.
There were more points, fewer penalty goals, fewer stoppages, more viewers and – most crucially – greater jeopardy. There were over four lead changes in an average fixture, including a change after the 70th minute in almost a quarter of games.
But then the finals arrived, and with them a realisation that Super Rugby’s restoration job needs more work. Specifically, a new and rickety playoff system.
The 2025 finals series was, wisely, trimmed from eight teams to six. That meant three qualifying finals, and the highest-ranked loser getting a second chance in the finals.
In most years, that would usually play out by the top two getting the job done at home, and the loser of the third versus fourth final getting another shot.
On the weekend, though, the Blues threw a welcome spanner in the works. The 2024 champs, who started slowly, only snuck into sixth and then pulled off an upset by beating the minor premiers, the Chiefs.
Tom Wright heads to the try line in the Brumbies’ win over the Hurricanes.Credit: Getty Images
It turned the Brumbies (3rd) and Hurricanes (4th) clash in Canberra into sudden death, and on the back of a brutally efficient forward pack, the ACT men played superbly and secured the win.
But here’s the rub: instead of the Brumbies earning a home semi-final next week, the Canberra side will travel to Hamilton this week to play the “lucky loser” Chiefs on Saturday.
It seems highly unfair, but that’s the system put in place by Super Rugby Pacific, which determines that the only punishment for the Chiefs losing is being “penalised one seeding place”.
The system is designed to offer a reward to the team that finishes as minor premiers, but a look through Super Rugby’s history shows it is double-dipping and overkill.
The valuable reward for finishing first in Super Rugby has always been having the ability to go on and host the final, as long as you keep winning.
In a competition involving long-haul travel, stats show hosting the final is akin to having one hand on the trophy. In 27 competitions since 1996, the minor premiers have won 19 times. (And counting the COVID-era comps, it’s 25 from 33).
The team finishing second has won six times, meaning there have only ever been two winners from outside the top two – the Crusaders (3rd) in 1999, and the Highlanders (4th) in 2015.
Playing at home deep into the Super Rugby finals has an outsized advantage. The home team has won 49 of 58 semi-finals since 1996 – and most road wins were achieved by domestic rivals. No overseas team has ever won a semi-final in New Zealand.
So the Brumbies will have a steeply uphill assignment to get the win in Hamilton next week. No Australian side has ever won a playoff after a flight across the Tasman, and the Brumbies have been beaten in New Zealand in the semi-finals for the last three seasons.
They have themselves to blame for dropping games and not finishing in the top two. And the bizarre part is that if they beat the Chiefs, and the Blues somehow end the Crusaders’ run of 30 straight finals wins at home, the Brumbies would then host the final.
But armed with their generous get-out-of-jail-free card, the Chiefs could also still host the final, too.
The more cogent system would either be giving the top two teams a week off before the semi-finals, or just observing the basic principle of rewarding winners.
The Blues scored at the death to beat the Chiefs in Hamilton.Credit: Getty Images
The minor premiers, who will rarely lose in this fashion, undoubtedly deserve a second chance. But in a competition where hosting a home final has proven so advantageous, it’s too much to give a losing team two bites at the playing-at-home cherry.
Asked about the system post-game, diplomatic Brumbies coach Stephen Larkham said he was okay with it, but was no doubt also aware about not sending signals about the Hamilton trip being mission impossible.
“There needs to be a reward for a team that finishes first,” Larkham said. “Otherwise, they’re just like everyone else in the qualifying finals. They’ve been outstanding all year.”
The Brumbies are determined to “go one better” than their last three campaigns, and they can draw from the fact that they are the only Australian side to have won finals overseas. With Larkham as backs coach and now-forwards coach Ben Mowen as captain, the Brumbies beat the Bulls in a 2013 semi in Pretoria, and they also won in Cape Town in a quarter-final in 2015.
Though they didn’t plan to talk about it if the Blues won and turned their final into a knockout game, players heard the news via the GIO Stadium loudspeaker during warm-ups.
“I thought we were really calm going into the game,” Larkham said. “We spoke about controlling our emotions in finals footy and yeah, when it was announced over the loudspeaker, it could have been easy for the guys to start panicking.
