Almost everyone outside Team Demon probably thinks Alex de Minaur will lose his Australian Open quarter-final to Jannik Sinner. Even de Minaur concedes he is the underdog.
But the 25-year-old’s history of persistence and proving people wrong suggests he is not without a chance against the defending champion and world No.1.
Alex de Minaur advances to the quarter-finals.Credit: Getty Images
De Minaur’s victory over Russian Daniil Medvedev at the 2022 Paris Masters was his first over a top-five opponent at his 19th attempt. He has often credited that breakthrough as the catalyst for his rise from also-ran to top-10 star – and now five-time grand slam quarter-finalist.
“Ultimately, you have to pop the cherry somehow and now that you know you’ve done it, you can do it again and again,” de Minaur told this masthead in early 2023.
“Like, it’s not something crazy to do it, right? I’ve been in positions where I’ve tried really hard, and I’ve been very close, but getting that first top-five win was huge for me.”
Two rivals have given de Minaur more trouble than any other: Sinner and Greek star Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Tsitsipas won his first 10 matches on the professional tour against the Australian, only for de Minaur to finally get the better of him in the Acapulco quarter-finals in March last year, after which he evoked the spirit of Vitas Gerulaitis.
“I would like to say that no one beats me 11 times in a row,” de Minaur joked. “But, hey, Stefanos has had my number for a very long time, so I’m glad I was able to get one back.”
Nobody beats Vitas Gerulaitis 17 times in a row.Credit: Fairfax Archives
The late Gerulaitis lost his first 16 contests to fellow American Jimmy Connors before belatedly defeating him, then quipping: “And let that be a lesson to you all. Nobody beats Vitas Gerulaitis 17 times in a row.”
De Minaur has lost all nine times he faced Sinner, from the final of the 2019 Next Gen Finals to the Davis Cup semi-finals in November last year. They also played practice sets on the Saturday before the Australian Open, and Sinner took the honours that afternoon, too, with this masthead watching.
The two of them are good friends, and have even played doubles together.
Sinner, for his part, is not publicly rubbing his head-to-head superiority in de Minaur’s face: “Every match is different. Playing against him here in Australia, it’s for sure different.”
De Minaur himself pointed out they have never faced off in a grand slam quarter-final either.
Speaking to this masthead pre-Open, he insisted he “definitely” felt closer to beating Sinner, adding that it was less about it being a bad match-up and more about the Italian being very good, including winning 73 of his 79 matches in 2024.
“Novak [Djokovic] and Carlos [Alcaraz] really are the two people who have found ways to still beat him, and still struggle big time. He’s just such a consistent player,” de Minaur said.
“I felt like the match we played at Rotterdam was a very high-quality match, with opportunities.
“The more time I spend on court with him, the more matches I play against him; it means that I’m doing the right things and playing the right types of matches.”
That Rotterdam match was an ATP 500 final, only weeks after last year’s Australian Open. Sinner triumphed 7-5, 6-4, and it took 64 minutes to split them in the opening set. De Minaur also had two break points to go 3-1 up in the second set, so he was not far away.
Their other two clashes in 2024 were late in the season when de Minaur was still playing in pain and his movement limited because of the hip injury he suffered at Wimbledon mid-year.
De Minaur’s stoic expression on defeating American Alex Michelsen on Monday night was him sending a deliberate message that the job this fortnight was not done. He made it clear afterwards that he believes he can upset Sinner.
“I’m looking forward to it,” de Minaur said of the Sinner showdown.
“It’s going to be an incredibly tough match, and I’m going to have to do something I haven’t done before, but why not start here?”
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