Rugby Australia won’t get a 50-50 broadcast split out of New Zealand Rugby for a new Super Rugby deal from 2024 onwards.
The principle is nice but in the real world it’s a commercial stinker for the Kiwis, and no union in the world would sign up to it.
But Australia will get an uplift from their current deal, under which NZR effectively funds RA to the tune of about $5 million a year just for Super Rugby.
It is understood the increase on offer from NZ Rugby’s current proposal is material – not double that $5 million a year but not a million miles away from it.
That’s also separate to the shared Rugby Championship pot, where NZR is already the majority funder, and reflects the Kiwis’ oft-stated preference to get a deal done with RA.
But there’s no more coming, or if there is it will be tinkering around the edges. RA is probably at the stage where it has to “take the three points” on offer, or head in a different direction.
New Zealand hold all the aces when it comes to a rugby revenue split.Credit:Getty
The current Super Rugby Pacific impasse has been reached because of the significant discrepancy in broadcast deals between the two sides, with RA’s deal with Nine/Stan – the publishers of this masthead – valued at about one-third of NZR’s deal with Sky NZ.
RA wants more of NZR’s broadcast deal – way more than $5m – to help it pay for its teams in Super Rugby, which is an expensive, fixed-cost business.
The problem with the 50-50 principle between uneven commercial partners is that it throws up some unintended consequences.
At the level RA is looking for, anyone involved in Super Rugby across the ditch would ask one question: why would we agree to that amount when we could run two more teams of our own with it, and retain the premium broadcast content of New Zealand derbies?
Sevu Reece scores as the Crusaders take yet another Super Rugby title.Credit:Getty
It would be an illogical deal for NZR, whose leverage has also increased thanks to what can only be described as a once-in-a-generation opportunity from European rugby.
The proposed world club championship, to begin in 2025, is so heavily weighted in favour of the southern hemisphere that RA and NZR should sign the contracts immediately before the European Cup bosses change their mind.
As it stands, seven teams from Super Rugby Pacific – including the highest-ranking Pasifika outfit – will get tickets to the 16-team world club championship – an obviously generous allocation.
If Super Rugby Pacific doesn’t exist, the Euopeans are likely to go primarily to New Zealand to fill those spots – if they haven’t done so already – with NZR holding the licences for Moana Pasifika and the Fijian Drua, whose funding agreement with the Australian government is far less than what they get from the Kiwis.
The world club competition, which would pit the Toulons of the world against the Crusaders et al – could boost NZR’s existing broadcasting agreement, even though the Super Rugby Pacific schedule will require a haircut in 2025 to make it work.
In theory, RA could renegotiate an aggressive increase in its own broadcast deals, which would be a carrot for the Kiwis to go 50-50. But even here there are issues.
The deal with Nine-Stan was originally for three years with a two-year option until 2025, covering the British and Irish Lions tour. Normally, that tour would deliver a big increase on RA’s annual $28m deal. However, if the increases for 2024 and 2025 are incremental, as is thought, that means the first big ticket item of Australia’s golden decade could come and go without a big broadcast windfall for RA – and by extension NZR.
Beyond 2025, Foxtel are no certainties to come back to the table to provide competitive tension, having spent heavily on renewing their AFL deal – an attitude they’ll presumably replicate to secure future NRL rights.
In other words, the incentives for NZ Rugby to go 50-50 are limited.
Of course, RA could carry through in its threat to set up a domestic competition.
It may be that there is no deal that works for all parties, and therefore no deal: the trans-Tasman frenemies could wish each other luck in a hostile world and reassess down the track.
But then again, that would mean leaving $15m-plus of NZR money on the table should the current proposal run from 2024-2025. Instead, RA could take the three points, keep the scoreboard ticking over and still point to a reward for their attacking play.
Watch all the action from the Women’s Rugby World Cup from New Zealand with every match streaming ad-free, live and on demand on Stan Sport. Continues this Saturday with Scotland v Australia (12.30pm AEDT), USA v Japan (3.15pm AEDT) and France v England (5.45pm AEDT).
