Laurie Daley has it all to lose.
Which is why, despite much discussion and speculation, some of his selection choices in a week’s time for the State of Origin opener should be quite obvious. Especially in the spine.
In his second coming as Blues coach, failure isn’t an option this time around for the man universally known as the “best bloke in rugby league”.
After coaching NSW for five series between 2013 and 2017, he finished with a record of nine losses and six wins, with one series win in 2014.
Considering his side was up against the great Maroons team that won 11 of 12 series between 2006 and 2017, it was probably a fair return. He won at least one match each year.
But, he was axed in favour of Brad Fittler ahead of the 2018 series, which Fittler won.
Fittler himself fell out of favour when Billy Slater coached the Maroons to wins in 2022 and 2023.
Michael Maguire landed the job and guided NSW to an inspired 2-1 win last year after being monstered in game one following the Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii send-off.
Maguire’s success in 2024 heaps the pressure on Daley, and NSWRL CEO Dave Trodden.
Trodden is an unabashed fan, and a friend of Daley. He was at the forefront of the decision to bring him back after seven seasons in the wilderness.
After last year’s series win, a loss this year would put them both in a position where the scrutiny will be crushing.
Mitchell Moses makes the break to seal the match and the series for NSW.Credit: Getty
With it all to lose, what does Daley do at the selection table?
One great match by Eels halfback Mitch Moses on his return from injury was enough for many pundits to say he should be selected as halfback ahead of Nathan Cleary, whose Panthers were struggling through the first third of the season.
Those people have lost their minds.
The argument being that Moses did the business in games two and three last year when Cleary was missing.
At worst, they want him picked at five-eighth ahead of Jarome Luai, if Cleary is preferred in the number seven.
At fullback, James Tedesco has played out of his skin, almost single-handedly inspiring the Roosters to a better-than-expected 4-5 start to the year.
There’s been a big push for Daley to pick him, even though he left him out of a January gathering of possible 2025 Blues squad members.
That would mean axing the Panthers’ Dylan Edwards, who finally forced his way into the side for games two and three last year after several quality seasons. He missed game one after being selected, and Tedesco earned a one-match reprieve.
As an avid listener of Daley’s Big Sports Breakfast on Sky Sports radio, I’ve tried to read into his almost daily non-commital comments about Blues’ selections, discussion of which is mainly met with laughter.
Nathan Cleary makes a break against the Cowboys on Saturday night.Credit: Getty Images
Every now and then he lets something slip.
He’s a big fan of Cleary, obviously, but also of Moses and Edwards.
Regarding Edwards, he particularly noted his return to form against the Broncos in Magic Round. He’s also a massive fan of Tom Trbojevic, who hasn’t played Origin since he tore a pectoral muscle in the opening minutes of game two in 2023.
But he can pick him at centre, from where he destroyed the Maroons in 2021, winning the Wally Lewis Medal as player of the series.
When he names the side in a week’s time, Daley will go with Edwards, and he’ll pick Cleary.
He will also have no problem picking Cleary and Moses as his halves combination.
That’s where the risk comes in, picking two match-controlling halfbacks as a combination.
Cleary at seven is an absolute no-brainer – the out-and-out champion among an amazing crop of current players. He will be an Immortal one day.
He is 27 now, and peaking. Against the Broncos in Magic Round he was supreme.
The Panthers’ ordinary start to the year should matter little because what Cleary and his Panthers mates achieved, four premierships in a row, is outrageous. Only champion players and champion combinations can do that via sustained excellence for more than 100 matches.
Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai.Credit: Wolter Peeters
That’s why Luai must be five-eighth, not Moses. Now at the Wests-Tigers, Luai was alongside Cleary for all four.
If you want to win Origin, you pick winners, the champions who know how to win. And that’s Cleary at seven, Luai at six and Edwards at one.
Throw in incumbent Reece Robson at hooker, and that’s the spine.
Cleary should also be the skipper. He co-skippers the Panthers with Isaah Yeo, who will also be in the Blues side. But the time is now to tell Cleary it’s his team and his show.
Jake Trbojevic was an inspired choice as captain last year, especially for his off-field leadership, but he can’t be picked this year. As great as he has been, he didn’t play enough minutes in Origin last year, averaging 20 per match.
And, there are other, better, current options around for middles.
Payne Haas picks himself, then there’s Mitch Barnett, Stefano Utoikamanu, Jacob Saifiti, Terrell May and Spencer Leniu.
With Trbojevic out, it’s Cleary’s time.
The best of his generation. Surrounded by his mates, he’s even better.
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