When Joe Schmidt took on the Wallabies job the clock was already ticking.
He had 13 Tests before the first British and Irish Lions showdown on July 19, 2025, in Brisbane.
Eight of those Tests have now flown by, and after the second Bledisloe Test in Wellington this weekend Schmidt will have just four Tests remaining to get ready for Andy Farrell’s tourists.
If the tipping point in terms of selection hasn’t already been reached – the point at which any future course is irrevocably set by past actions – then it must be awfully close to it.
This is great news for the 23 selected to face the All Blacks on Saturday, but perhaps less so for those still on the margins, such as Waratahs No.10 Tane Edmed.
Schmidt, in fact, must ponder a difficult question: can the impact of any new player not used so far this year be greater than the potential destabilisation of the building blocks that have been put in place?
Tane Edmed makes a break for North Harbour against Waikato.Credit: Getty Images
And those building blocks are evident when you look at the data, supplied by Opta, that build a real picture of the players that Schmidt likes.
Captain Harry Wilson is the only player to have played every minute of the Rugby Championship so far (400 minutes).
The next players in line are Len Ikitau (385 minutes), Andrew Kellaway (377 minutes), Rob Valetini (366 minutes) and Tom Wright (320 minutes).
A further eight players have been rewarded with between 200-300 minutes, headed by Noah Lolesio (290 minutes). The other seven, not in order, are Allan Alaalatoa, Angus Bell, Hunter Paisami, Jeremy Williams, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Matt Faessler and Nick Frost.
‘Can the impact of any new player be greater than the potential destabilisation of the building blocks in place.’
You don’t need to be a genius in pattern recognition to see a core group of Wallabies emerging through the first eight Tests of Schmidt’s reign, and his relatively high use of debutants has arguably masked the fact that the top 23 has become relatively stable.
All of the above players have again been selected for Bledisloe II.
Of course, there are a few quirks in the data. Carlo Tizzano and Marika Koroibete have both played a touch more than 300 minutes, but Tizzano owes those big minutes to Fraser McReight’s injury.
Koroibete is the only player to have enjoyed plenty of game time during the Rugby Championship whose future selection is under a cloud, particularly as he plays his club rugby in Japan.
Marika Koroibete charging for the Wallabies in Sydney.Credit: Getty Images
It isn’t the case that big minutes equals guaranteed Lions selection for the current squad, but there is undoubtedly a correlation between the data and the individuals that Schmidt trusts.
Take Wilson, for example. Yes, you would expect the Wallabies captain to be on the field for every minute, but Wilson didn’t get the armband until the third Test of the Rugby Championship – the victory against Los Pumas in Argentina.
The captaincy honour didn’t precede Wilson getting 80 minutes each week, it followed three such Tests (against Georgia and twice against South Africa).
Which brings us to Edmed. The Waratahs No.10 is currently starring for North Harbour in the NPC in New Zealand. So much so, in fact, that he is the competition’s leading points scorer after seven rounds.
To say that his move to New Zealand has been a success is an understatement. But at risk of being the bloke that turns up with warm beers, the difference between NPC rugby and the Test arena is enormous.
Even Super Rugby clubs in New Zealand keep only a handful of contracts open for NPC standouts each year, and they are usually for squad players who won’t be in the top team (at least for the first year).
Expecting Edmed to transfer his NPC form to Twickenham when the Wallabies face England in their Spring tour opener is therefore unrealistic, especially as he would be coming in cold with little understanding of the structures Schmidt has been putting in place this year.
That’s not to say Edmed won’t get a crack in Europe, especially with Tom Lynagh troubled by his hamstring issue.
But the first Wallabies team to face the Lions could end up being quite similar to the one that opposes the All Blacks on Saturday.
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