Geelong have entered a high-risk phase in their battle to defy AFL equalisation policies designed to bring them back to the field.
And it leaves the Cats in grave danger of being called a destination club while evolving into one that believes it can do no wrong as they entertain the idea of recruiting disaffected Demon Clayton Oliver while planning to also nab Bulldog Bailey Smith and Carlton’s Jack Martin.
Veteran Geelong coach Chris Scott has done an outstanding job at keeping the club regenerating and competing on the run. Credit: Getty Images
One relief for Cats fans is that the smart heads at Geelong understand this. Coach Chris Scott said at the club’s best and fairest that the Cats were reaching a point in fighting the equalisation system where the risks were inevitably higher than they once might have been.
He said the club was in a position where “we have got to be a little bit careful that we don’t assume we do things better than everyone else”.
Of course, they have done things better than most in the recent past, but they have become better at assuming they do, too.
The club has shifted its approach off-field in a way that is more hard-headed and corporate than it once was. The Cats have embarked on a marketing strategy to pursue membership targets and fill the now 40,000-capacity stadium, while trying to simultaneously maintain a community feel.
It’s a tough ask.
There is now a danger for Geelong of succumbing to hubris and falling into chaos as this growth focus makes winning necessary to keep everyone satisfied.
On-field success has made the shift harder to detect, but it has happened, even if the club can justify the approach given how tough it is to find revenue.
Within the shift have been changes that make even Geelong vulnerable.
They lost their most significant on-field leaders and community heroes Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins and Harry Taylor recently.
They have a gap in the number of players aged 25-28 compared to their rival contenders – the Brisbane Lions and Sydney have more of their core at that age than Geelong, which leaves a potential leadership void.
Their coach, who has presided in outstanding fashion over this era, is next out of contract at the end of 2026, and who knows whether he will want to be there beyond that. Patrick Dangerfield will be gone at the latest by 2026 too, which takes another experienced head away. Long-time fitness boss, and a man who left his ego at the door, Scott Murphy, is moving to rugby union.
Melbourne star Clayton Oliver has flirted with the idea of joining GeelongCredit: Paul Rovere. Artwork: Aresna Villanueva
Their next crop of youngsters including best-and-fairest winner Max Holmes have formed a tight bond. Oliver Dempsey, Tanner Bruhn, Sam De Koning, Shannon Neale, Ollie Henry, Jhye Clark and Connor Sullivan show all the qualities that have come to define Geelong.
But as young players they remain untested when it comes to dealing with different personalities who have been there, done that before they arrive at the club.
One thing has appeared to escape those lauding Geelong for their brilliance in attracting Smith and Oliver: the Cats want it believed that the duo’s respective clubs don’t want them, while Carlton’s Jack Martin was delisted due to constant injury issues.
Who would know whether Melbourne want Oliver or not? They don’t seem to know themselves. But the argument that the Bulldogs don’t want Smith is dubious given the Cats have been into the talented midfielder for the past two seasons, years when Smith gave very little to the Bulldogs due to form and an ACL injury.
In terms of comparing risk profiles, Smith and Oliver are more akin to Cats recruits Mitch Clark, Jack Steven and Tyson Stengle than to Dangerfield, Jeremy Cameron, Jack Bowes, Zach Tuohy and Isaac Smith. Stengle arrived alongside Eddie Betts and has been good, but Clark and Steven had no impact.
Eddie Betts played a positive influence on Tyson Stengle’s career, particularly when they both landed at Geelong for the 2022 season.Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images
Martin is less of a risk as they will give up no draft capital, his attitude is beyond question and they are entitled to think they at least have a chance to get him fit.
With Smith set to be on a long-term deal and, if they land Oliver on a multimillion-dollar contract lasting until 2030, it could well be for others to clean up if the risks fail.
Geelong should be thankful if Melbourne stop them from going down the Oliver path as it seems too risky a call even though Oliver is clearly keen to get there. While Geelong run a brilliant football program, everyone needs reminding occasionally that they aren’t miracle workers. Oliver has required his club, his management, his skipper Max Gawn and the AFL to be heavily involved in his life to get him back on track and there remain questions whether he will recapture his form. Geelong would need to commit to a similar whole-of-club approach to make it work. That’s never easy.
Remember Hawthorn were lauded for grabbing Tom Scully and Jonathon Patton from the Giants at a bargain price and offloading Ryan Burton to bring in Chad Wingard from Port Adelaide. The Hawks did well to draft Will Day and trade in Sam Frost in that period but landed little else and, after much heartache, were forced to change tack.
Richmond paid a high price for Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto as then-coach Damien Hardwick wanted to keep competing. They finished bottom this season after the coach left midway through 2023 and plans went awry.
At least at Geelong their coach has promised the Cats’ decision-makers won’t risk the club’s future for short-term gain.
If that is the case they should be content with landing Smith and Martin, develop their exciting crop of players and remind themselves that destination clubs can still attract free agents regardless of the cycle – without the same risk Oliver might bring.
They should reset their sights on Tom De Koning and others who will be free agents next year as well as joining what will be long queue trying to convince Harley Reid to return to Victoria.
And under new president Grant McCabe, a local with a good reputation, they should remind themselves they have been able to have success while standing for more than just winning.
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