Michael Cheika should be cursing Warren Gatland as much as Eddie Jones.
The story of Jones’ second spell in charge of the Wallabies is seared into the minds of every Australian fan, but Gatland’s unhappy fate in Wales might also be playing on the minds of the powerbrokers at Rugby Australia.
Gatland has this week emerged publicly after his second spell in charge of Wales ended in failure, coming across as a somewhat embittered coach after a troubled two-year run.
Gatland had returned to the Welsh job in 2022 and, to his credit, launched a successful World Cup campaign the following year at which the Welsh hammered the Wallabies.
The 61-year-old has always been a great campaign coach, whether at the World Cup with Wales or on tour with the British and Irish Lions, but it’s what happened after the Cup that will be noted by RA heavies. Wales fell in a hole, Gatland’s methods suddenly looked outdated and there is a view in Wales that the national side is now two or three years behind where it should be.
Gatland and Jones are the reason why the “don’t go back” theory in coaching is such a strong one, with former success desperately difficult to replicate.
Michael Cheika greets Eddie Jones in 2023. Could Cheika also make a return as Wallabies coach?Credit: Getty Images
It might be that an older and wiser Cheika can avoid the pitfalls experienced by Jones and Gatland, but the don’t go back theory is a difficult one to overcome.
If it weren’t so persuasive, Cheika would be an absolute lay-down misère for the Wallabies gig. His record at club and Test level speaks for itself – far more impressive than his Australian rivals for the Wallabies job – and he has repeatedly shown that a two-year runway towards a home World Cup in 2027 would offer him ample time to embed his methods.
In fact, if Cheika has expressed an interest, then RA faces an unenviable decision in weighing up his obvious merits with the counter-argument that, as a coach who has already led two Wallabies World Cup campaigns, he is a coach that has ample opportunity already.
If not Cheika, then who?
Brumbies coach Stephen Larkham during his time with Munster in Ireland.Credit: Getty
Stephen Larkham’s chances grow the more you think about it. Not least because it was “Bernie’s Bros” – Tom Wright, Len Ikitau, Noah Lolesio, Rob Valetini and Nick Frost – who emerged last year under Joe Schmidt to form a near-complete Wallabies spine.
And while it is not the primary concern, Larkham’s move from the Brumbies to the Wallabies would appear to bring the least disruption to the Super Rugby landscape, on account of the Brumbies program being so institutionally strong it would withstand the loss (and perhaps open the avenue to bring Peter Hewat home).
There is also Larkham’s experience at Munster to consider, when he had to face the at-times unforgiving scrutiny of a passionate fan base – a glimpse into what he could expect at the Wallabies. He probably collected a bit of scar tissue in Ireland, which is no bad thing in the bigger picture.
There would be reassurances required by RA before a Larkham candidacy becomes compelling. A former Munster player who played at the club during Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber’s 18 months in charge and also under Larkham told the Herald the former Wallabies No.10 leant towards the technical and tactical side of the game, rather than the culture-building of the Erasmus-Nienaber partnership in their bad cop-good cop roles.
Yet, that might have been because Larkham was attack coach, not head honcho, and the same observation may no longer apply. But if it does, perhaps a continued Schmidt role, somewhere, can prove helpful if the two coaches are compatible.
Larkham at the Wallabies would certainly be a full-circle moment for Australian rugby. Twenty-two years ago Larkham played alongside RA chief executive Phil Waugh in a World Cup final in Australia, and it would be quite the story if the pair had key roles for the 2027 sequel.
But his more relevant qualification is that he is a coach, post-Ireland, with a growing track record of improving players. The Brumbies threw their babes into the Suva cauldron against the Drua last week and it didn’t seem to faze them. This week, Wright and Ikitau return, and the former’s rise in the fullback position last year happily proved this critic wrong.
Larkham’s name is not being shouted from the rooftops when it comes to the Wallabies job, but the 50-year-old’s time might have come.
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