Winless, 18th and not looking to make excuses, Geelong are the first defending premiers to lose their first three games since North Melbourne in 1976.
It’s worth noting this is a different Cats line-up to the one that contested the final Saturday in September. The team on Sunday had 800 games less experience than their grand final team.
Ollie Henry, Jack Bowes and Tanner Bruhn are yet to win in Cats colours, while Jonathon Ceglar, Max Holmes and Esava Ratugolea took the number of changes in round three from last year’s grand final to six.
Patrick Dangerfield – flanked by Jed Bews (left) – leads Geelong off the ground after the third successive loss under his fledgling captaincy.Credit:AFL Photos
That wouldn’t matter so much if their best players were performing but, apart from Jeremy Cameron, they are not. New skipper Patrick Dangerfield, key forward Tom Hawkins and dual best and fairests Cam Guthrie and Mark Blicavs are struggling. Mitch Duncan has been missing and Tom Stewart’s drive was missing in the first two rounds after he was injured early in round one.
Along with Cameron, those seven can be described as the Cats’ generators. Six are unplugged.
Jack Henry and Jake Kolodjashnij have not played either and Sam DeKoning has been in the wars, making their defence disjointed with Zach Guthrie their most consistent performer.
And with each element of their game style so intertwined, only one part needs to become clunky for difficulties to arise across the ground.
“When you fix one part of the ground, things flow from there. We’ve had to plug a few holes that have contributed, along with other things, to us being a bit disjointed,” coach Chris Scott said.
Defensive woes
If there is a sign Geelong is off, it’s that they rank 18th for stopping the opposition from marking the ball inside 50 in the first three rounds.
Instead of allowing the opposition about nine marks per game inside their defensive 50, as they did in the past two seasons, they have allowed on average 15 in the first three rounds.
That gives the opposition more set shots at goal and an opportunity to conserve energy when setting their defence behind the ball. Kolodjashnij’s return should help.
After being among the top four teams for most of the past 10 years when it comes to scores against, they sit 15th on that measure after three rounds.
Contested ball
Whenever they have been in trouble in the past the Cats return to getting the contest right.
After nine rounds last season Geelong had won five and lost four and were ranked 11th for contested ball differential. They finished the home and away season ranked fourth for that statistic and on top of the ladder.
After three rounds they sit 15th for contested ball differential after losing the count by 24 to the Suns after Collingwood and Carlton beat them in that area in the first three rounds.
The team have obviously lost an organising voice and ultra-consistent midfielder in Joel Selwood, but they won without him against good opposition in 2022, so there is no reason they can’t do so again.
The best way Dangerfield, Guthrie and Blicavs can support younger players Holmes, Bruhn and Bowes is to play well, which sounds extraordinarily simplistic.
That means focusing on using their strengths in midfield roles that have made them outstanding Cats with one purpose: to beat the opposition midfield. If that trio lifts, then others around will join in, particularly if Duncan returns to provide the Cats with the ball user they have missed.
Jeremy Cameron has kept the Cats competitive in the past two matches. Credit:Getty
Forward structure
Hawkins is labouring as the Cats attempt to get him fit and in touch through games, but the ball use has not helped him. Again everything is interdependent with Hawkins’ inability to impact in the air making life harder for Ty Stengle, while the high half forwards Gryan Miers and Brad Close are being caught out of position when the opposition intercepts and rebounds.
The Cats are ranked 12th for inside 50 differentials after being number one at the end of last season, an indication they are struggling to create repeat inside 50s.
They only scored one behind from stoppages against the Suns, a sign Hawkins is not being as effective rucking at forward 50 stoppages.
They are ranked 10th for scores and 13th for the percentage of times they score when entering their forward 50 with the absence of interceptors reducing their ability to translate turnovers into scores.
Premiership hangover?
That’s impossible to measure, but the Cats haven’t shown complacency for 15 years, so they are unlikely to start now. The good news for them is that North Melbourne reached the 1976 grand final and Formula One driver Sergio Perez started the Australian Grand Prix in pit lane on Sunday and finished fifth.
Scott is not looking in the rearview mirror for answers.
“It’s much more logical for us to think about who we are right at the moment and not reference last year and not reference what it might mean for July or August or September,” Scott said.
They can resurrect their season, but it must start on Easter Monday.
