Brad Arthur is under intense pressure to get a key — and deeply personal — selection right for the grand final, with the final make-up of his side to make or break the Eels’ chances of ending their premiership drought.
The Eels have done a great job to get to the decider after years of finals heartache, but considering the players that are leaving the club at the end of the season, right now represents a golden chance to break the longest title drought in the NRL.
Reed Mahoney (Bulldogs), Isaiah Papali’i (Tigers), Marata Niukore (Warriors), Oregon Kaufusi (Sharks) and Tom Opacic (Hull KR) are all moving to other clubs at the end of the season.
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There is a sense of destiny about this Eels side, but if they don’t cash in on their success and take home the trophy on Sunday, who knows when they’ll get another shot.
The biggest selection dilemma facing Arthur is an intensely personal one — whether he carries son Jakob on the bench for the grand final, despite the fact he may not play a role on the field.
Arthur logged zero minutes in the preliminary final against the Cowboys, with 16 Eels players getting the job done in stifling conditions in Townsville.
The argument for carrying Arthur on the bench is that the Eels don’t have genuine cover for halfback Mitchell Moses should he go down injured or get concussed, as he did in week one of the finals against the Panthers.
Arthur is a talented youngster who has the makings of a future regular starting No.7 in the NRL, but the counter argument is that he is not far along enough in his development to carry the Eels to the title on his own, especially opposite the best halfback in the game in Nathan Cleary.
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There is a fair assumption that should the Eels lose Moses in the grand final, they have lost anyway, so planning for such a scenario could be irrelevant.
The NRL360 panel dissected the issue on Monday night with James Hooper declaring the Eels must focus on winning the game and not the worst-case scenario of Mitchell Moses getting injured.
“What do you do if Moses has another concussion?” Phil Rothfield asked on NRL 360.
“Bryce Cartwright,” Hooper said.
“But he hasn’t played in the halves for a long time,” Rothfield replied.
“He hasn’t, but if Mitchell Moses gets rubbed out, do we all agree Parramatta are virtually no hope of beating the Panthers? “ Hooper said.
“If Moses gets rubbed out and he cannot finish the game then you can virtually put the pen through the Eels.”
Paul Kent said the Eels were playing with fire trying to carry a player on their bench who might not get on the field.
“I know Moses has had a recent concussion, but it is still a high risk play to have a player there on the idea that your halfback might get knocked again,” Kent said.
Hooper, meanwhile, said the Eels needed their full 17 to stand a chance against the Panthers.
“To roll the Panthers though with their back five and the go-forward they get out of yardage,” Hooper said.
“Then you go the forward pack, James Fisher-Harris, Moses Leota, Spencer Leniu, Viliame Kikau.
“To beat that side, to compete with that side, I think the team would be better balanced.
“If there was an injury to Mitchell Moses, you could possibly use Ryan Matterson or Bryce Cartwright to sub in and otherwise you go with three other forwards on the bench.”
Braith Anasta believes if Moses goes down the Eels have lost anyway, so there is no reason to plan around Arthur filling the halfback void.
“If Brown or Moses goes down and Arthur comes on, I think they lose the game,” Anasta said.
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“If Brown or Moses goes the game is over. They are in trouble anyway.
“I don’t think Arthur can come in and steer the side if they went down early and steer them to victory.
“It might sound a bit harsh, but that is my opinion on it. It is a contentious one.”
Hooper pointed out that you only have to look back to the first week of the finals for evidence that Arthur will struggle to fill Moses’ shoes if called upon.
“It happened in week one of the finals,” Hooper said.
“It was 13-8 and Moses got ironed out. Jake came on and look he did his best. He is a young bloke and he tries his guts out.
“But you are playing the best side in an NRL grand final. It is a big call.”
The debate once against shine a spotlight on Arthur who turns 21 this week and has played just 20 NRL games since his debut last season.
That attention only intensifies when you consider the players that are set to be left out of the 17.
Makahesi Makatoa has played 24 games for the Eels this season and was surprisingly dropped for the preliminary final in favour of Bryce Cartwright, who has played 10 games in 2022.
Former Blues Origin forward Nathan Brown, who has 137 NRL games of experience, played 13 games in 2022 before he fell out of favour.
However, Brown is now set for a stunning recall at the expense of Cartwright, according to The Sydney Morning Herald.
All three players could provide value off the bench. Arthur, meanwhile, has played 13 games in 2022, but apart from a couple of starts when Brown was switched to centre and Moses was sidelined, his minutes off the bench have been limited.
The Eels also need to consider the calibre of the opposition they are playing. The Panthers have been the standout team all season and are playing in their third straight grand final.
The Eels may have been able to get by with just 16 players against the Cowboys, but the Panthers are a different beast entirely.
Parramatta may have beaten the Panthers twice this year, but one was aided by the send-off of Nathan Cleary, while they came from behind to beat them 22-20 in Round 9.
The Panthers beat them convincingly 27-8 in week one of the finals and Arthur struggled after coming on following Moses’ concussion.
Penrith have the grand final experience on their side with most of their team a part of the last two appearances in the decider, while the Eels have just one player in Ryan Matterson to play in a decider.
The Panthers are a relentless football team, especially through the middle of the field led by James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota up front.
One only has to look at the way they stormed back from 12-0 down against the Rabbitohs to know just how fit and ruthless their forward pack is from their starters to their bench.
And with crafty players like Api Koroisau, Isaah Yeo and Nathan Cleary, the Panthers will pounce on any half gaps created by fatigue in the Eels forwards.
The Eels will need an almighty effort from all 17 players just to compete with the Panthers in the grand final, which means they may not have the luxury of carrying a player on their bench who doesn’t play.
There is also the potential for a player or multiple players to be rubbed out of the grand final due to concussion, given that it is set to be an all-out war between the two arch rivals.
Arthur is a specialist halfback so how he can help the team if injuries strike to any player other than Moses or Dylan Brown is debatable.
Nathan Brown and Makatoa can play anywhere in the pack and centre if absolutely necessary, while Cartwright’s versatility can see him play in the back row and, importantly, the halves if required.
If Cartwright is an option in the halves given his history as a playmaker early in his career, it begs the question why do the Eels need Arthur at all?
Arthur senior seems to be planning for the worst-case scenario that Moses is injured in the first minute of the grand final.
But the flaw in his solution to that problem is that his son Jakob, given the stage of his development, won’t win the Eels the title.
Two old sayings come to mind when assessing Arthur’s grand final selection headache. The first is “horses for courses” in that the Eels need to pick the right mix of players to beat the Panthers.
The second is “you need an old dog for a hard road” in that the experience and toughness of players like Brown and Makatoa in particular will be vital in the pressure cooker of an NRL Grand Final.
And with five of their top 17 moving on next year and the futures of Dylan Brown and Moses uncertain, this may be the Eels’ one and only chance to win the title before their premiership window closes.
