A World Cup win would see Samoa surge up the international rankings, but it won’t have an impact on their Tier Two status.
Heading into this year’s Rugby League World Cup Samoa sat seventh in the rankings behind New Zealand, Tonga, England, Australia, Papua New Guinea and Fiji.
Rankings are calculated over a four-year cycle and are determined by the date of an international game, the result and margin, the importance of the game and the strength of an opponent.
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More recent matches are weighted more heavily, which is why Australia sit fourth despite arguably boasting the best squad in the world. Before the World Cup the Kangaroos hadn’t played since their shock loss to Tonga in 2019.
World Cup games carry the greatest weighting, followed by World Cup qualifiers, then regional championships and one-off international matches.
Samoa’s 60-6 loss to England in the group stage would have hurt but their quarter-final win over Tonga and semi-final win over England will go a long way to improving their international ranking.
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However when it comes to changing tiers, Samoa’s World Cup campaign won’t have much of an impact.
The Rugby League International Federation introduced a tier system in 2016 — and a nation’s tier isn’t based solely off the team’s on-field success.
It goes much deeper than that with nations expected to meet a number of requirements including participation numbers, domestic senior competitions, junior development and access to recourses.
For the strength of international rugby league, many would consider it a good thing that Samoa is a Tier Two nation because an elevation to Tier One could cost them the likes of Brian To’o, Jarome Luai and inspirational skipper Junior Paulo.
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As per the NRL’s eligibility rules, a player can represent both a Tier Two nation and New South Wales or Queensland in State of Origin.
This is why To’o, Luai and Paulo could play for the Blues earlier this year, but represent Samoa instead of Australia in the World Cup.
But Tier One nations are not afforded the same flexibility, hence why Victor Radley’s decision to represent England in the World Cup — and ultimately rule himself out of ever playing Origin — was such a bombshell moment.
If Samoa were to become a Tier One nation — with Australia, New Zealand and England — that star trio wouldn’t be able to play State of Origin.
And if forced to make a decision, the opportunity to play in the NRL’s annual showpiece event and receive $15,000 per game could be tough to turn down. But who’s to say they wouldn’t choose Samoa over NSW?
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Take To’o, Luai and Paulo as well as Stephen Crichton and Josh Papalii’i out of Toa Samoa and there’s no way the nation makes it’s very first World Cup final this year.
By those five players being free to play Origin and then represent Samoa, this has arguably been the strongest World Cup to date.
In fact, outside of Australia, this is the first time in World Cup history the final won’t be made up of either England, New Zealand or France.
But there is another side to the conversation.
Siosiua Taukeiaho declared in 2019 that the team’s “main goal” is to become a Tier One nation and “be recognised as one of the best sides in the world.”
To some players the elevation to Tier One will strengthen their nation — but that would require the likes of Daniel Tupou, Felise Kaufusi and David Fifita to make the decision Radley did.
The promotion of nations like Tonga and Samoa would force the NRL to decide what’s more important — the strength of Origin or the growth of the international game?
