The best ride will win The Everest – as it did with James McDonald, currently capable of scoring on a broomstick, on Nature Strip last year.
It’s harder today for Nature Strip from a wider draw (12) and a shorter price. Sure, the gelding has tactical speed, but finding the fast lane if the rail is firmer could take the edge off him. From the seven gate, I’ll gamble with Hugh Bowman having more options on Lost And Running.
Barriers could be vital. Launching from 11 could take the edge off Mazu, getting assistance from Sam Clipperton. Maybe he hasn’t the pizzazz of McDonald nor the touch of Bowman but Racing And Sports rates him at 47 over The Everest course and distance. J-Mac (48) is marginally ahead.
Hopefully, the bleat of “riding for luck”, something happening to put horse and rider in a beneficial position, won’t be heard. Riding to win is better on the ear, and attractive to the eye.
1. Nature Strip
A world-class sprinter, he has the figures plus the Randwick form, the jockey and the trainer, but the barrier (12) and track conditions are queries. Yes, he handles the wet but the circumstances in the first 200 metres will be vital. He won the race last year with the jockey doing everything right. Wary of the short odds. Prediction: Second
The first 200 metres will be vital for Nature Strip.Credit:Getty
2. Eduardo
Nash Rawiller, absent last start, is back and the combination is tough to overcome. Usually a worthy rival for Nature Strip, which puts him on a short list. Can lead or take a sit, which is an advantage, but a nine-year-old? Prediction: Fourth
3. Lost And Running
Fourth to Nature Strip in the corresponding race last year but indicated he could do better. Two efforts this campaign confirm he’s ready to run the race of his life but he needs exceptional navigation, a Hugh Bowman “pearl”. He’s the best gamble. Prediction: First
Lost And Running (right) is ready to run the race of his life.Credit:Getty
4. Masked Crusader
Gets back and requires spectacular steering. Big finish in slower ground last start and renowned for giving Nature Strip a scare. Looked short of peak appearance and condition last start. He’ll be better today. Prediction: Third
5. Mazu
Trained by the Snowdens, successful twice in The Everest with Redzel, so the timing will be right. Did enough last start behind Lost And Running to endorse class. Gate 11 could be a problem but a winning chance. Prediction: Fifth
6. Private Eye
Weight-for-age in elite company a test. Being prepared by Joe Pride, the gelding is capable of being better now than ever before. He’ll be back in the ruck but getting split at the right time can score. Prediction: Sixth
7. Overpass
The four-year-old is smart but hardly good enough to reverse his sixth to Lost And Running last start. Heavy track efforts read 4-0. Prediction: Eighth
Can Jacquinot take The Everest?Credit:Getty
8. Ingratiating
Improver with a big finish. If rivals go berserk in front, he could cause an upset. Preferred by Godolphin to stablemate Kementari, who would have been a consideration but a week ago hardly the first pick by Godolphin for the race. Prediction: Ninth
9. Joyful Fortune
Formerly of Hong Kong and very fast. The anticipated leader in some speed maps but will he sustain the necessary pressure? Not for mine. Prediction: 11th
10. Shades of Rose
Highly talented mare, with a wing on every foot, but never had the blowtorch applied like today. Expect her to melt over the latter stages. Prediction: 10th
11. Jacquinot
A youngster with untapped ability who could dazzle late, but maturity is the issue. However the last three-year-old to win The Everest, Yes Yes Yes, wasn’t as impressive in his previous race. Both are by Rubick, and Jacquinot could climb The Everest, but not today. Prediction: Seventh
12. Giga Kick
Talented three-year-old and winner of four out of four, but in much lesser grade. Currently he has a benchmark of 90 compared to Jacquinot’s 103 and are on the same handicap, 53kg, under weight-for-age conditions. Hardly. Prediction: 12th
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