Qualification for the 2026 World Cup in South America was back this month with two matchdays, as many teams make the final push to secure qualification for the sport’s biggest spectacle. Defending champions Argentina became the first country to qualify out of CONMEBOL meaning there will be five more automatic spots and an intercontinental playoff spot to play for.
After these double-headers in late March, there will be two more in early June and mid-September to decide which six teams will play in North America next year, and who could potentially join them via an intercontinental playoff.
So, after the latest frantic burst of matches, what are the big questions hanging over these teams as they prepare for their final push to reach the tournament in the United States, Mexico and Canada?
Argentina: Are they really on course to do something that’s never been done?
1st place: 31 points (goal difference, +18)
Results: 1-0 win vs. Uruguay, 4-1 win vs. Brazil
Retaining the World Cup is hard enough, and only two teams have ever done it: both Italy in 1938 and Brazil in 1962 won the second tournament on their home continent. No side has ever won a second consecutive World Cup on a different continent, but the past few days have put an extra spring in Argentina’s step as they build for 2026.
Without Lionel Messi, they beat their two historic rivals — 1-0 away to Uruguay and a 4-1 thrashing of Brazil — with results that does not come close to doing justice to the gulf in quality between the sides. It’s impossible to replace Messi with one player, but the combination of mobile striker Julián Álvarez and emerging playmaker Thiago Almada supplies plenty of hope for the future.
A possible concern is that the defensive unit is still the same as the one that often threatened to collapse under pressure in Qatar. But coach Lionel Scaloni has said that he will use the remaining four rounds of qualifiers to look at options. With Argentina already sure of a 2026 place before thrashing Brazil, he can experiment from a position of strength.
Argentina’s previous attempts to retain its crown — in 1982 and 1990 — carried an air of tragedy around them. This one looks like it might be different. Even if they don’t win next year, the past few days have hinted at a joyful future.
Ecuador: Can they redistribute their riches?
2nd: 23 (+8)
Results: 2-1 win vs. Venezuela, 0-0 draw vs. Chile
Ecuador’s campaign is proving a resounding success, and it would look even better had they not been docked three points for an administrative irregularity in the Qatar qualifiers.
They have only been beaten twice — everyone else has lost at least three times — and those defeats were both 1-0 away to Argentina and Brazil. In 14 rounds, they have conceded just five goals, by some distance the best defense in the field. This is largely down to an excellent crop of center backs: all quick, strong and young.
Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapié have now been joined by the highly promising Joel Ordóñez, currently improvising at right back. In an injury crisis, coach Sebastian Beccacece has plenty of other competent defenders to call on.
But he is nowhere near as blessed with his options up front. Enner Valencia scored all of Ecuador’s goals in the 2014 World Cup, all bar one in 2022, and is usually the sole goal threat in the current side. He has five goals in this campaign. No one else has more than two.
Valencia is 35, and cannot go on forever. Ecuadorian football — and especially the remarkable Independiente del Valle — is producing an abundance of center backs, but a scarcity of center forwards.
Uruguay: Can they recover their spark down the home stretch?
3rd: 21 (+7)
Results: 1-0 loss vs. Argentina, 0-0 draw vs. Bolivia
Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay were the in-form side in 2023, winning away to Argentina and cruising past Brazil at home.
The eccentric coach looked like an excellent match for a team that needed a generational change, but the past year has proved tricky. Luis Suárez, clearly upset at being eased out, set off a crisis by going public with gossip about a breakdown in relations between the coach and his players.
Then, the goals dried up. Uruguay went four games in a row without scoring amid talk of a crisis in the camp. All that appeared to have been surpassed in November, but morale may have taken a blow in these past few days. Again, Uruguay went two games without scoring.
The 0-0 draw away to Bolivia was a good result, but the earlier 1-0 home defeat to Argentina was very disappointing, especially as they created next to nothing in the last hour of the game. Bielsa took off Darwin Núñez and Federico Valverde early, but made it clear after the match that if the side is not scoring goals and if the individual talent is not firing together, then he is to blame.
The final four rounds are important for Uruguay when it comes to getting their mojo back and walking toward 2026 with a swagger in their stride.
Brazil: Time for a change in coach?
4th: 21 (+4)
Results: 2-1 win vs. Colombia, 4-1 loss vs. Argentina
Brazil made a change of coach in January 2024 after losing to Argentina in the home match of this qualifying campaign. Might it be time for another change for Dorival Júnior to go the way of his predecessor Fernando Diniz, after an embarrassing 4-1 capitulation to Argentina in Buenos Aires?
In its way, this thrashing was every bit as awful as the infamous 7-1 World Cup semifinal defeat against Germany in 2014. Brazil were comprehensively outplayed from start to finish. Dorival appears to see central midfield as an option, getting both selection and strategy wrong as well as seeming to exert little emotional control over his players.
In recent matches, flashes of individual talent — such as the stoppage-time Vinícius Júnior goal that beat Colombia last Thursday — have been enough to paper over the cracks, but not this time. Brazil would seem to be going nowhere and at this point, it’s very hard to see a collection of talented individuals being formed into a collective unit good enough to challenge for the World Cup in little more than a year.
Expect intense pressure for a managerial change in the coming days.
5th: 21 (+2)
Results: 1-0 win vs. Chile, 2-2 draw vs. Colombia
A year ago, Paraguay looked to be out of the running for a 2026 place. Then, after the Copa América, they brought in Argentine coach Gustavo Alfaro, and they have not looked back. No one — not even Argentina — have picked up more points in the subsequent eight rounds, and Paraguay now look well on course to make it to their first World Cup since 2010.
Alfaro has previous experience working in the CONMEBOL qualifiers. He stepped into the Ecuador job shortly before the start of the Qatar qualifiers and did an excellent job steering their young side through to the last World Cup. A serious figure — he does not celebrate his team’s goals — Alfaro seems happier working with underdogs.
But that does not make him a defensive specialist. Against Colombia, his Paraguay side were good enough to come from behind — always the test of a good team — and claim a draw.
The team are running on pure belief, and Alfaro can start preparing his trademark navy suit for a trip to North America.
