What your team needs to improve to win the 2025 premiership

Collingwood

Must be more settled off the field
To think the Magpies were the envy of the football world after their 2023 premiership. It wasn’t long last season before off-field issues arose, in particular the absence of football department chief Graham Wright (now Carlton CEO-in-waiting), which made coach Craig McRae’s life a lot tougher when they failed to make the finals. The Magpies enter 2025 with a new president and football department boss, and a need to avoid a repeat of the three-straight losses they began last year with. Dan Houston is a huge addition, but the Magpies are the Dad’s Army of the league, beginning the season with nine players aged over 30. Can they stay healthy?

Essendon

Must not pay attention to the calendar after the mid-season bye
The Bombers are a difficult team to decipher, and appear to have the same mental block as the Blues. But here’s something definite – they are a combined 17-11 between rounds 1-15 through 2023 and ’24, but are a combined 5-14 after the mid-season bye. Ouch. They also need Peter Wright to get moving. The 2022 best and fairest had a dirty 2024, managing only 14 games before being dropped by the end of the season.

Fremantle

Must deliver when it really counts
The Dockers have missed the finals the past two seasons, including when they dropped their final four games last year amid a bevy of injuries to slide from third on the ladder to miss September action. This list is strong, and there are no excuses. Coach Justin Longmuir must improve his team’s turnover game and offence if it is to take that next step, having ranked ninth for points scored (85.4) and sixth in scores from turnover differential (+6.9) last year. The Dockers were 4-7 when Sean Darcy was sidelined – they need him back from summer ankle and knee issues as soon as possible.

Geelong

Must have defensive consistency, and integrate Bailey Smith
The Cats were hard to read last year. They began with seven straight wins, only to slump to 1-6 in their next seven. Defensively they unravelled, conceding an average 105 points per game from rounds 8-15 – ranked 17th. That was after conceding just 73.1 in the first seven rounds. While they rallied and finished third on the AFL ladder, they finished the season 10th for points conceded (83.1). Whether former Bulldog Bailey Smith can find his groove as a permanent midfielder will also shape the Cats’ season.

Gold Coast

Must find a way to win on the road, and navigate the Matt Rowell contract debate
The Suns won seven of 10 matches at People First Stadium last season under new coach Damien Hardwick but, like the Crows, were poor on the road, winning only four of 13 games. For a club yet to play finals, that was another mediocre return. New skipper Noah Anderson embodied the drop-off on the road, averaging just 1.8 tackles compared to 4.8 at home. He also averaged 4.1 more contested possessions and 3.5 more clearances at home. Whether Matt Rowell stays or leaves – and how the club and player handle this public debate – will also be crucial.

Greater Western Sydney

Must overcome the mental demons of last year’s finals flameout
Remember, the Giants led Sydney by 27 points in time-on of the third quarter of their qualifying final, only to lose. They then led Brisbane by 44 points late in the third term of their semi-final, only to lose. While they enjoyed elite goal-scoring accuracy last season (53.8 per cent, which was second-best), they need to improve in scores from turnover differential (ranked 10th) and they were poor at stoppage (ranked 15th for clearance differential). They will want more from Stephen Coniglio – the former skipper had his worst season last year based on numbers alone since debuting in 2012.

Hawthorn

Must maintain the hunger and make adjustments to a gameplan that will be closely dissected
They became the Hollywood Hawks last season, their game plan built on dash from half-back and a newfound confidence working something of a miracle when they won 11 of their final 13 home-and-away matches. But the opposition will be better prepared this season, meaning the Hawks will face a fight to again lead the league in points scored, the least points conceded, scores from turnover differential, scores from clearance differential and goals per forward-50 entry, as they did from rounds 11-24. Just where skipper James Sicily settles, after the Hawks acquired defenders Josh Battle and Tom Barrass, will also be important.

Melbourne

Must get back to enjoying the game without off-field distractions
It was a whirlwind of drama for the Demons last season, whether that was to do with the futures of Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver, or events involving the boardroom and executive. It’s no secret the Demons need to find a way to hit the scoreboard more freely. They ranked 14th (77.6) for points scored but, typically, were strong in defence, conceding 78.8 per game (ranked seventh). Oliver had his worst season since his debut, averaging 23 disposals, 11 contested possessions, four clearances and four tackles. He needs to again be the man who has claimed four best and fairests.

North Melbourne

Put simply – must learn how to win
No one expects the Kangaroos to challenge for the flag this year, but it’s time to lift and be in the finals mix at least until the midpoint of the season. The Kangaroos were the youngest team in the AFL in 2024, but that is likely to change now they have secured premiership veterans Caleb Daniel, Jack Darling and Luke Parker. It’s been a long, dark road in recent seasons, including last year when they had a lead on the scoreboard an equal competition-low 23 per cent of the time. Their three wins also came by a combined 26 points. They were last in scores from turnover (-22.4) and scores from clearance differential (-17.2), concerns that Parker and Daniel hope to help ease.

Port Adelaide

Must handle the coaching succession plan and get busy in finals
This will be Ken Hinkley’s final season, with assistant Josh Carr having been groomed to take over as part of a succession plan. While club powerbrokers hope that won’t be during this season, that could change if the Power struggle and fall from premiership calculations. Should they make September, they need to find a way to score consistently. They are 1-5 in their past six finals, their forward half issues obvious. They average the fewest points (62.4) of any team to play more than one final. They have averaged 84.4 points (ranked fifth) in the home-and-away campaign in this period. Just how they replace Dan Houston is a fascinating watch. The now-Magpie has averaged the fifth-most disposals of any permanent defender over the past four seasons (22.6), ranking third for uncontested possessions per game (14.3).

Richmond

Must stay true to the rebuilding process
The Tigers are at ground zero and are nowhere near challenging for the finals, let alone a premiership. They lost a total of 1268 games of experience over the summer – the most in the competition. While this year is about getting games into the youngsters, they need to find a way to improve on their competition-low 65.4 points per game last year, while minimising the damage when things go wrong, having lost 10 games by at least 40 points. We look forward to watching No.1 pick Sam Lalor, who averaged 27 disposals, 14 contested possessions, seven clearances and seven score involvements for GWV Rebels in 2024.

St Kilda

Must be fit for a King
Max King’s average goals per game (1.6) were last year the lowest since his debut season, while his 1.5 contested marks and five score involvements per game were also a career-low. If King can stay fit – a big if – and get going, it should help the Saints improve their overall scoring. Their best footy was at Marvel Stadium where they were 8-5, but away from home they were 3-7 – with two of these wins against battlers West Coast and Richmond.

Sydney

Must rid themselves of any psychological scars and maintain their turnover game
A new coach brings a fresh start, but for those involved in the 2022 and ’24 grand-final meltdowns, there are demons to exorcise. These can’t really be erased until the Swans again reach the final Saturday of September, but a poor start to this campaign could indicate the pain lingers. Here’s a statistic the Swans will want to maintain. They were 18-0 when they outscored their opposition from turnovers, compared to 1-7 when they were beaten. Only the Lions had a better turnover game than Sydney across the season. Skipper Callum Mills, who missed 19 games through injury in 2024, will be like a recruit.

West Coast

Must conjure a minor miracle, but hope Harley twists the throttle
This is a rebuilding program under new coach Andrew McQualter, and there is much to do. Here’s a start – they have been last in contested possession differential in each of the past three seasons, while they were last for clearance differential over the past two seasons. They were also bottom two for points scored. Improve this, and life becomes that much easier. Harley Reid had a fine debut season, averaging 19 disposals, 10 contested and six clearances. He booted multiple goals in three games, the Eagles winning two of them. If he can have more of a scoreboard impact, the Eagles’ hopes of a rebirth will strengthen.

Western Bulldogs

Must find a way to make the leap
The Bulldogs are on the cusp in several key areas – ranking fourth for attack (averaging 93 points), fifth for defence (conceding an average of 76.5 points) and fifth in scores from turnover differential (+7.3). If they can elevate into the top three in these areas, they will be in premiership contention. They already boast the league’s best stoppage game – outscoring the opposition by 9.1 points per game from clearances. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan has had an interrupted pre-season, but if he can improve his goal conversion – he has the worst accuracy (39.5 per cent) of any forward in the top-50 for shots at goal since 2022 – the Bulldogs will be in business.

* Statistics from Champion Data.

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