The stage is perfectly set for the first Clásico of the season at the Santiago Bernabéu on Saturday (stream LIVE at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+). LaLiga leaders Barcelona head to the Spanish capital with a three-point advantage over second-placed Real Madrid.
This was not scenario that was expected after 10 games. Madrid beat Barça twice on their way to the league title last season and then added one of the world’s best players, Kylian Mbappé, to a front line already starring Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo Goes and Jude Bellingham.
Barça, meanwhile, started the season shrouded in uncertainty and continuing financial issues. Hansi Flick arrived to replace Xavi Hernández as coach, and while Dani Olmo was signed from RB Leipzig, they began the season with a squad that looked short on numbers and experience.
However, they have started the campaign in fine form — as shown on Wednesday when Raphinha scored three goals as his side beat Bayern Munich 4-1 in the Champions League — and Flick could move Barça six points clear of Madrid with a win in his first Clásico.
Mbappé, though, will want to have his say in his debut in the fixture, too, while Vinícius comes into the game on the back of a hat trick in Madrid’s 5-2 comeback win over Borussia Dortmund. — Sam Marsden
Clásico all-time head-to-head
All competitions
Madrid 105, Barcelona 100, Draws 52
LaLiga
Madrid 79, Barcelona 74, Drawn 35
LaLiga games at Bernabéu
Madrid 37, Barcelona 19, Drawn 13
— ESPN Stats & Information
What happened last season?
Barcelona were the better team in both of last season’s league Clásicos, but that wasn’t enough. Both games were vintage Madrid smash-and-grabs. In the first Clásico of the season at Montjuïc, on Oct. 28, Barça dominated for an hour. Ilkay Gündogan‘s goal put them ahead early on. Luka Modrić and Eduardo Camavinga came on and changed the game, but Bellingham won it, scoring a long-range equaliser on 68 minutes before a second goal deep in added time made it 2-1.
The Supercopa meeting in January felt like an outlier as Madrid ran out comfortable 4-1 winners. In April’s return league fixture, Barça were on top for long spells, leading 1-0 and then 2-1, but Madrid raised their game and Bellingham inevitably scored a 91st-minute winner, making it 3-2 as the Bernabéu erupted. Had Barcelona won those two Clásicos, they’d have been champions. But they lost both. Talk about fine margins.— Alex Kirkland
Midfield
Real Madrid: Ancelotti has recently opted to strengthen his midfield, going for a quartet in the middle of the park rather than a more lightweight trio. Two of Aurélien Tchouaméni, Camavinga and Modrić will accompany Federico Valverde and Bellingham. Valverde is arguably Madrid’s player of the season so far, doing his best to fill the retired Kroos’ boots, while Bellingham hasn’t scored for his club since May… Could that change on Saturday? The weak link is Tchouaméni, who often looks uncomfortable in possession. — Kirkland
Barcelona: Injuries have disrupted Barça’s midfield this season. Gavi, Frenkie de Jong, Olmo, Fermín López and Marc Bernal have all missed large parts of the campaign. Gavi, De Jong, Olmo and López are all available again, but the Blaugrana are likely to stick with Marc Casadó, who has done brilliantly since being promoted from the B team, and Pedri. The question is which of those returning players, if any, are fit enough to accompany them from the start. If the answer is none, the other options are Raphinha in the No. 10 role, or the inexperienced Pablo Torre. — Marsden
Edge: Barça
Attack
Real Madrid: Vinícius and Mbappé need no introduction. The pair are lethal in front of goal — both scoring at Celta on Saturday, with a total of 11 league goals between them — even if they aren’t the most obvious duo, sharing many characteristics. Their weakness is a shared reluctance to track back, more pronounced in Mbappé’s case, and the knock-on effect of that on the team’s overall solidity. But their quality on the ball is undeniable. — Kirkland
Barcelona: Flick has the Barça front line purring. Lewandowski, whom he previously worked with at Bayern, has been the big benefactor of the team’s improvement in the final third. The veteran striker is getting the ball in more central areas in the final third and has netted 12 times in 10 league games. Yamal from the right and Raphinha, either from the left or centrally, have also been brilliant. No-one has more goal contributions in LaLiga than the trio: Lewandowski leads the way with 14, followed by Raphinha and Yamal, who have 10 each. The case could be made that they have been the best front three in Europe so far this season. — Marsden
Edge: Barça
Coaches
Real Madrid: Ancelotti has struggled to find exactly the right formula so far this season to get Madrid firing on all cylinders, but you wouldn’t bet against him getting there eventually. The Italian has vast experience, has won it all, and knows all about this fixture, having coached Madrid in 11 Clásicos over two spells. He’s prone to the occasional high-profile Clásico gamble — think Sergio Ramos playing in midfield in 2013, or Modrić as a false No. 9 in 2022 — but they’re rare. — Kirkland
Barcelona: Flick has quickly made his mark on this Barça side. They press well, create chances quickly when they win the ball back and defend with a really high line. He has improved the output of players who struggled at times last season, including Lewandowski and Raphinha, and has trusted in youth when faced with a lengthy injury list. He can almost do no wrong at the moment, but that can quickly change if he doesn’t get things right in the Clásico.– Marsden
Edge: Madrid
Key clashes
Kylian Mbappé vs. Pau Cubarsí: Cubarsí, 17, is a precociously talented defender, but Mbappé is getting better game by game — Ancelotti says he’s looked “a different player” after resting over the international break — and will relish the space he should find in behind Barcelona’s defence. Madrid tend to struggle when faced with a deep block, but such an approach would represent a radical shift for Flick’s Barça, who favour a high line. If they stick to that philosophy, Mbappé will enjoy himself. — Kirkland
Lamine Yamal vs. Ferland Mendy: It will be interesting to see how Barça attack Vázquez at right-back, either through Raphinha staying wide or Balde pushing up, but the most fascinating battle comes on the other side. He may only be 17, but so many Barça games are being determined by Yamal already. Either teams overcommit men to mark him, leaving space for the other attackers, or he produces a moment of magic. Mendy, on his day, is a fine defender, so it promises to be an absorbing contest. — Marsden
Clásico predictions
Real Madrid 3-2 Barcelona. Yes, Barça have been the best team in LaLiga this season, but Flick’s kids haven’t come up against a forward line with the pace and goal threat of Mbappé and Vinícius. Expect an end-to-end, entertaining game, with both teams on the front foot. I think that will favour Madrid, but it should be fun either way, with lots of goals. — Kirkland
Real Madrid 2-2 Barcelona. Famous last words, perhaps, but I agree it will be entertaining. Flick insists he won’t change his ideas too much, which should mean plenty of attacking and a high line. That would lead to chances and goals at both ends.– Marsden
Betting odds
Real Madrid +105, Barcelona +220, Draw +290 (at time of publication)
— ESPN BET
