Just over a month ago before facing Fremantle in round 16 Sydney, Swans defender Oli Florent gave a small indication of the collective pressure that surrounded his team despite having recorded 13 wins and one loss at the time.
“I guess we’re the hunted, and teams want to come out and really test us and put us to the sword,” Florent said. Little did he know how prophetic his words would turn out to be. Fremantle went on to a shock one-point win over the Swans that set in motion a run of five games with four losses and a single win against lowly North Melbourne.
That run is the second-worst five-game stretch for a league leader since St Kilda in 2004, who also recorded a 1-4 record but with a worse points difference than the Swans. The pertinent question is: What is going wrong with a team that until then was taking the AFL by storm?
Slow starts continue to fester
In a season with so many positives for the Swans, the team’s slow starts are lingering like an unwanted guest. The Swans have only led the first quarter twice from round 10: once against the Giants in round 15 and against North Melbourne in round 18. Neither of those leads was convincing either, going in for the first break three and two points up against the Giants and North Melbourne respectively.
According to Champion Data, since round 10 the Swans have conceded the most points (an average of 27.5) in the first quarter out of anyone in the league. By comparison, last-placed Richmond have conceded an average of 25.8 points.
The question of addressing slow starts has been asked of coach John Longmire regularly. His response has been that his coaching staff have been examining the issue in detail but haven’t been able to find a final cure for the issue.
Chad Warner after the loss in round 20 against the Bulldogs.Credit: Getty Images
The star midfield is shackled on the scoreboard
A significant number of highlights this season have come from the Swans midfield. Not only did they dominate possession with fearless running, but Errol Gulden, Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner were also major contributors on the scoreboard.
In the first fifteen rounds of football, Heeney and Warner averaged 1.7 and 1.5 goals respectively. Since round 16 against Fremantle, both players have dropped dramatically (allowing for the fact that Heeney was suspended against North Melbourne in round 18).
Heeney has registered an average of 0.7 goals and Warner 1.0 goal a game. Teams are working actively to shut down the influence of the two players exactly where it matters most – on the scoreboard.
Not leading from the front
At the start of the season, Sydney’s ability to score from anywhere on the field created havoc for opponents. The midfield dynamos Heeney and Warner were also shouldering an unreasonably heavy load that couldn’t last all season.
Key forward Joel Amartey managed an average of 2.2 goals in the first 15 rounds, bolstered by his impressive nine-goal haul in round 14 against Adelaide. Since round 16, he has been sitting on an average of 0.8 goals per game. The tall forwards – Amartey, Hayden McLean and Logan McDonald – are talented footballers, but, in the absence of the unexpected bounty of goals from the midfield, they will need to find a way to collectively create more impact on the scoreboard.
Joel Amartey of the Swans celebrates one of his nine goals against Adelaide in round 14Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images
A long injury list
The Swans dealt with significant injuries at the start of the season but adjusted seamlessly without veteran forward Luke Parker and captain Callum Mills. Their ability to adapt brought benefits, namely starting Heeney in the midfield instead of his normal spot in the forward line, which gave him more opportunity on the ball and had him in early Brownlow Medal contention.
At the business end of the season, injuries have finally started to take their toll. Small forward Tom Papley, who has been one of Sydney’s bright spots in the last five games in scoring an average of 1.8 goals, is out for up to five weeks with an ankle injury. Papley can turn games by himself and his absence will place even more pressure on other forwards to take on more responsibility on the scoreboard.
Defensive locks Lewis Melican and Dane Rampe will also miss the game against Port Adelaide, creating significant gaps in the backline for the opposition to exploit.
The Swans are near the end of a physically and mentally gruelling season. They have set the pace at for much of it but are stuttering. The good news is there are still four games of football to play before finals in September. Saturday night at Adelaide Oval is the perfect place for the Swans to start afresh.
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