When there’s $15 million in prizemoney on the line and the margin between winning and losing can be minimal, horses and jockeys need to make every inch count.
Heck, the world’s best sprinter Nature Strip only won by a slender margin in last year’s race (a long head, for the record).
So that’s why the barrier draw for this year’s The Everest will shake up betting markets and possibly play a major factor in determining who will write their name into folklore at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
But does the stall your horse is loaded into really matter that much, and how does it actually work?
What is a barrier draw?
Quite simply, a process which determines which stall each horse will start in for a particular race.
For example, if there are 12 horses in a race each will be allocated a number between one and 12 which determines what gate they will be loaded into.
Horses jump from the barriers during a Royal Randwick race.Credit:Getty
One is the inside barrier and closest to the inside fence while 12 will be the outside and furthest from the running rail.
Does it really matter?
It depends on who you ask.
Some trainers, jockeys and punters will place enormous clout in where a horse is drawn for a race, while others pay little attention to it.
The reality is it does have a bearing on the results of races.
How much generally depends on what type of race you’re looking at. Longer staying races probably don’t place as much importance on barrier draws as sprints like The Everest, where jockeys often ride their horses aggressively from the start to obtain a favourable position in the early stages because of the shorter distance of the event.
If I draw the widest gate in The Everest, does it mean I can’t win?
Definitely not.
The Randwick 1200-metre course is probably one circuit which gives all horses a chance, regardless of the barrier draw. It only really has one turn into the home straight and involves a long, straight run to that point meaning horses drawn in a wide barrier are not constantly turning and covering more ground opposed to rivals drawn closer to the rail.
James McDonald will ride The Everest favourite and defending champion Nature Strip.Credit:Getty
But there are other tracks where drawing an inside gate is crucial. Rosehill’s 1100m metre course, for example, involves a long, sweeping turn which means horses which can’t get close to the fence after the start are covering significantly more ground than their rivals. It’s like going down to your local athletics track and running in lane two next to a friend who is in lane one. After several laps you’ll get sick of running more distance than them.
Keep an eye on track bias as well. Savvy punters will watch the early races before The Everest to determine if there is a pattern with horses which are winning or running well. Are they all drawing barriers towards the inside? Are they finding a part of the track in the straight which seems to be quicker ground?
Redzel won the first two editions of The Everest.Credit:Getty Images
The rail will be shifted back into a position closer to its normal position after last Saturday’s Silver Eagle meeting when it was eight metres out. It means the ground back towards the fence shouldn’t be as worn as wider on the track and potentially helpful to horses on that part of the circuit this week.
Which gates have been good in The Everest?
The race has only been held five times, so there’s been no distinct pattern to emerge in the winning gates so far. The race has 12 runners each year.
Two-time champion Redzel was a horse noted for preferring to lead or race close to the frontrunners in his career, and hence took advantage when he drew barrier four in the inaugural race in 2017 and then gate one the next year.
But it has been possible to win with wider barriers, proven by Yes Yes Yes (nine), Classique Legend (six) before last year’s winner Nature Strip jumped from stall 10.
Yes Yes Yes won from barrier nine three years ago.Credit:Getty Images
When will The Everest barrier draw take place?
Officially, the barrier draw will be done via a drone show over Sydney Harbour on Tuesday night. It will follow several years of spectacular exhibitions to reveal the barriers for all 12 runners, using landmarks such as the Sydney Harbour Bridge, Opera House and Sydney Tower.
Technically, however, the barrier draw will take place in the offices of Racing NSW earlier in the day with only the reveal to take place later that night. All betting will be suspended on the race on Tuesday morning.
Where do the favourite horses want to draw?
Nature Strip is the overwhelming favourite ($1.90) to defend his title this year and will start the shortest-priced favourite in the history of the race. Being a horse who naturally settles up the front, it would be assumed he would want to draw closer to the inside to help him get there, right? Not necessarily.
Chris Waller’s star usually takes a few strides to hit top pace so drawing wide away from the ruckus can help him slowly muster speed and then come across the face of the field to find the front. He is a little bit of an anomaly in wanting a wide draw rather than an inside one because other jockeys can dictate to him if he’s a little tardy in the first few strides from a low gate and push him back towards the fence and behind runners.
Second favourite Lost And Running would probably prefer a barrier closer to the inside to camp behind Nature Strip and Eduardo, another noted leader.
The barriers won’t matter as much for Masked Crusader, Jacquinot and Private Eye, who like to settle in the second half of the field and will take their time to find a position.
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