Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka will drop heat early and often in Saturday’s Australian Open women’s singles final on Rod Laver Arena.
Based on their run to the final, three out of every four points will see either player hit the ball a maximum of just two times in the court.
Consistency will take a back seat to shock and awe. Shot tolerance will be thrown out the window. For both players, the final will be two cracking swings and then daylight.
The first two touches of the ball for either player will mean more to the outcome of the point than everything that follows. We used to associate consistency, repetition, shot tolerance, and grinding with the women’s game. Throw that out the window for this final.
Aryna Sabalenka has played three out of every four points in the 0-4 shot rally length on her way to the final.Credit:Getty
Sabalenka has won 78 more points than she has lost in the 0-4 rally length, while Rybakina is very similar with an 85-point advantage. When the point matures into a fifth shot or longer, Rybakina is in a slight deficit, winning 89 points while losing 91. Sabalenka has proven more assertive in longer rallies, winning 29 more points than she has lost (105-76).
Longer rallies in this final will be few and far between. Whoever wins the battle of the first two touches will walk away with the silverware.
Rybakina takes the honours in these three match metrics to the final, hitting the most aces (45) of anyone in the women’s draw.
A decisive advantage for Rybakina when serving is her ability not to have to hit another ball in the rally.
Elena Rybakina has served 45 aces – the most of anyone in the women’s draw.Credit:AP
Rybakina’s stats are stunning, especially compared to the men’s draw. When you compare unreturned first serves against any male player that won a match, the highest was Felix Auger-Aliassime at 52 per cent (152/192). Rybakina was a percentage point better than the big-serving Canadian.
First Serve Speed
Rybakina has hit the fastest serve in the women’s draw at 195km/h. That’s faster than 16 players in the men’s draw, including Jenson Brooksby (193km/h), John Millman (193km/h), Fabio Fognini (189km/h), and Constant Lestienne (176km/h). Sabalenka has the third-fastest serve in the women’s draw to the final at 193km/h. Thunder will face lightning in the women’s final.
Returns In Play
This specific slice of the match should tip in Rybakina’s favour. She has put 82 per cent (303/371) of her returns back in play, which will add pressure to Sabalenka’s first serve to do more. This could potentially lead to more first-serve misses and more exposure to her second serve, where double faults are a well-known Achilles’ heel in her game.
The tournament average for Returns In Play is 76 per cent. Sabalenka has only made 72 per cent, which has her tied at 80th best for the tournament. Advantage Rybakina.
One area in which both players excel is clubbing return winners. Sabalenka has 28 in the tournament to date, while Rybakina has notched up 18. The highest amount in the men’s draw is 16, from Tommy Paul. This speaks to the urgency for both women to essentially end the point before it begins.
Sabalenka’s big hammer from the back of the court is her forehand, which strikes a lot of winners, and comparatively yields fewer errors.
Rybakina has made 59 more errors than winners off her forehand wing, while Sabalenka has made just 15. Sabalenka will be hunting forehands all match long.
Sabalenka (left) has the advantage on both the forehand and backhand side over Rybakina.Credit:Getty
Sabalenka’s numbers are awe-inspiring. The ability to strike winners almost at will while not making errors is a crucial component of her run to the final.
This is not a primary pattern of play for either player, with Sabalenka only coming forward around four times a set and Rybakina five times per set. But rest assured, net points won will provide confidence and momentum for both players as they seek to blast heavy groundstrokes from the back of the court and mop up short balls as a result at the front of the court.
When watching this match from the comfort of your couch or a prime seat on Rod Laver Arena, make sure you pay attention when the serve as struck. There typically won’t be much happening afterward.
When Sabalenka defeated Donna Vekic 6-3, 6-2 in the quarter-finals, the average rally length for the match was a speedy 2.8 shots. Only one rally out of 148 points reached double digits, and that was an 11-shot rally.
When Rybakina defeated Jelena Ostapenko in her quarter-final, the average rally length was also 2.8 shots. Not one rally for the match reached double digits.
Expect much the same in the women’s final. The average rally length will probably not reach three shots in the court, which will be just fine for both Rybakina and Sabalenka.
This final will overdose on big serves, short points, and explosive groundstrokes. Welcome to a new era of women’s tennis.
Watch the Australian Open, live on Channel Nine, 9Gem and 9Now.
For daily updates of all the tennis action during the Australian Open, sign up for our Sport newsletter here.
