Ferrari received a welcome boost of confidence after its Belgian Grand Prix drubbing by locking out the top two spots in second practice at the Dutch Grand Prix.
Charles Leclerc led Carlos Sainz by just 0.004 seconds after a late blast on the soft tyre, confirming Ferrari as the team to beat.
That is, so long as Mercedes doesn’t have a say in things.
In an intriguing second practice sessions that featured widespread timing loop outages and a late red flag that disrupted the race-pace simulations, Lewis Hamilton put his W13 in third and just 0.072 seconds behind Leclerc.
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Quite the turn-up after a deeply demoralising Friday and Saturday at Spa-Francorchamps just one week ago.
The contrast gets starker for Red Bull Racing. Max Verstappen’s best time at the end of a compromised day was good enough for eighth and 0.7 seconds down on his nominal title rival. It wasn’t enough to subdue his raucous home support, but it might get close if it extends into Saturday.
So where do we stand ahead of qualifying day for the Dutch Grand Prix?
VERSTAPPEN ON THE BACK FOOT AFTER GEARBOX PROBLEM
Zandvoort is still new to Formula 1, having returned to the sport only last season, and its unique layout — tight and twisty and punishing of errors — makes time on track extremely valuable.
But time on track is exactly what Verstappen lacked.
A transmission problem curtailed his first session to just seven laps, none of them at any kind of great pace, meaning he was forced to play catch-up in the second hour.
It hurt him particularly in his understanding of the soft tyre, which will of course be key for qualifying, which will be a crucial session given the difficulty expected in overtaking here, and is expected to be integral to a two-stop strategy, which appears likely.
“Just missing out in FP1 on the soft tyre, I think on that hard tyre [in FP2] we couldn’t really tell the balance because we had such little grip in the tyre and then you are a session behind,” he said.
“We went into FP2 and the balance wasn’t great, but in an hour’s session you can’t really change the car a lot, so we tried to deal with what we had, and that wasn’t great today.
“We’ll have the night to deal with things. For sure we can do better than this.
“We have the whole night to look at things and of course FP3 as well. I will try of course to be more competitive.”
The team will undoubtedly bounce back for Saturday; it’s just a question of how much. Will it be enough to take control of the weekend, or will it simply find itself in the mix?
There’s no real championship jeopardy here given Verstappen’s rudely healthy 99-point lead over Charles Leclerc — and his 93-point lead over teammate Sergio Perez, who was 12th in FP2 — but he will be battling against the certain irony that in a dominant season pole and victory at his home race might go to chief rival Leclerc.
Or — whisper it — perhaps even Lewis Hamilton.
MERCEDES SHOCKINGLY CLOSE TO THE FRONT
Every other weekend Mercedes is either surprisingly competitive or way off the pace.
In Hungary before the break George Russell took pole and Hamilton embarked on a late charge for victory.
In Belgium both drivers were way off the pace in qualifying, though Russell thought the Mercedes car was a match for Ferrari, which was hamstrung by high tyre wear.
Now here, in the Netherlands, the car was able to mix in with the Ferrari. Hamilton was less than a tenth off the pace, while Russell was only 0.3 seconds adrift.
“The car’s working better, there’s no doubt about it,” Russell said. “It’s going to be close tomorrow … and we still know qualifying is our weak point.
“I think the race will come towards us and I think our long run pace is looking strong. But you’ve got to be starting in the right position, you know. If we’re starting on row three, it’s going to be difficult to battle for first or second.”
“But it’s a little bit tricky out there because the timing screen wasn’t working so we didn’t have [live data].
“We couldn’t really actually see where our long run pace is really at, so I’m sure everyone is going to dive into it tonight and try to gather as much data as possible, but I feel we’re in a relatively good spot.”
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Hamilton was similarly optimistic, though he noted the car’s ceiling probably wasn’t much higher, which might prevent the team from following Ferrari further up the road when performance is turned up for qualifying.
“We’ve landed in a much sweeter spot with the car, being that it’s a much different track,” he said. “It’s a work in progress.
“We just have to keep chipping away.
“The car doesn’t feel that bad performance-wise — there’s probably not a huge amount more performance-wise, but we keep pushing.”
It marks an interesting change in fortunes for Mercedes. Early in the year the car was much happier on smooth permanent circuits rather than slow, twisty ones. But from the Hungarian Grand Prix that appears to have flipped, and Budapest was one of its most competitive races.
Zandvoort is similarly tight and moderate in speed, and that new pattern appears to be holding — so far.
FERRARI DOMINATING THE DOWNFORCE STAKES
There are few circuits as dramatically opposed as Spa-Francorchamps and Zandvoort. The former features some of the calendar’s most extreme dynamics — think about Eau Rouge and then the contract between the slower middle sector and the absurd blast of the final split — and demands a difficult compromise in terms of aero set-up.
As was decisive to last week’s result, it also requires cars to run a stuff and high ride height to avoid bottoming out.
Zandvoort, however, is more conventional and in its entirety a medium-speed track. Ride heights aren’t back to normal given the undulations of the banked sections and some general bumps, but it’s within what might be considered the normal set-up range.
It thus appears to have closed up the frontrunning cars, certainly compared to the Belgian Grand Prix.
Further, Ferrari’s leading pace is explained by the fact this track requires more downforce — through larger rear wings — and is far less punishing of drag, which the Ferrari’s aero concept has struggled with all season. In short, it’s a Ferrari track.
Mercedes’s form line is incredibly difficult to read — even the team seems constantly surprised by when the W13 switched on.
Red Bull Racing, meanwhile, has few places to exercise its power unit, and the RB18 has been less happy loading up on aero all year.
MIDFIELDERS IN THE MIX?
Practice was further notably for the standout performances of Aston Martin and McLaren, and in particular Lance Stroll and Lando Norris, who both finished inside the top six in FP2.
Aston Martin’s form is particularly unexpected. It’s not unusual for the team to run with lighter fuel in practice and sink backwards during the rest of the weekend, but Stroll’s long-run averages looked genuinely impressive, suggesting the team might be in the mix.
It’s worth noting that the Aston cars finished just behind McLaren and Alpine in Budapest two rounds ago, suggesting this kind of medium-speed circuit suits the philosophy.
But it’s McLaren that will be most looking forward to this weekend. Its 2022 car as a general rule likes neither slow corners nor long straights; instead it excels through flowing medium-speed corners.
It’s why the team struggled so badly in Spa, which is mostly about straight-line performance and launching out of a couple of tight corners, but why it’s well placed this weekend, where Zandvoort rewards momentum.
That’s not to discount Alpine here. Fernando Alonso and Esteban Ocon both split the McLaren drivers — albeit Daniel Ricciardo ended FP2 early with an oil leak — while Sebastian Vettel was way down the order in 14th.
But on the evidence of a disrupted Friday practice session, the Dutch Grand Prix is certainly on track to be one of the closest in months.
