Bayern Munich‘s reign in the Bundesliga is threatened. They just panic-fired their manager with two months left in the season. They’re facing more uncertainty than they have in quite a while. They remain as Bayern as ever, though: still prolific, still the betting favorite (and the No. 2 favorite in the Champions League) and, of course, still incredibly watchable. So are their biggest challengers.
As we prepare for the biggest iteration of Der Klassiker in a number of years — Borussia Dortmund plays at Bayern (12:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC) — it’s difficult not to get excited. Sure, Bayern have won 10 straight league crowns and are unbeaten in the past nine Klassikers, and the last time these rivals played a match this important, in the home stretch of a tight 2018-19 title race, Bayern won 5-0.
This match could be tight and gripping, but even if it isn’t, it will probably still entertain. That’s what these teams do. Seventeen of their past 18 head-to-head battles have featured at least two goals, and their past seven meetings have averaged 4.7. And as far as European soccer goes in 2022-23, no two teams are as entertaining.
– Stream on ESPN+: LaLiga, Bundesliga, more (U.S.)
– Why Bayern made a risky switch at manager (E+)
Behold, the third annual ESPN Watchability Rankings, in which Bayern still leads, Crystal Palace, um, doesn’t, and we find that Ligue 1 has made itself increasingly attractive.
How do I go about assessing watchability? With stats and aesthetics. Here are the watchability criteria and how they’re all weighted:
* Quality (6%): It has to matter a little bit, right? If you try to do all the right things, but aren’t very good at them, it’s not going to be as watchable. (Relevant category: points per game in league play.)
* Shots and goals (36%): Traditionalists in every sport will always point out how a good defense can be fun, too, and — harrumph — when things get a little too high-scoring. Although I have indeed seen 0-0 matches that I enjoyed immensely … come on. Shots and goals (and the things that create them) are undeniably fun, especially when you are both taking and allowing them. (Relevant categories: goals scored, goals allowed, total average shots, xG per shot and xG per shot allowed, pass completion rate into the attacking third.)
* Pressure and intensity (25%): A large part of watchability is knowing that the team you’re watching is trying really, really hard. In soccer, that’s reflected frequently in terms of defensive intensity. There aren’t many effective and direct ways of measuring this, but there are a lot of indirect ways, so I’m using quite a few. (Relevant categories: passes allowed per defensive action, opponents’ average passes per possession, possessions beginning in the attacking third and because watchability goes both ways, opponents’ possessions beginning in the attacking third.)
* At least a little verticality (9%): In modern soccer, shot quality is often created through patience, building possessions slowly from the back, lots of horizontal passing, etc. But verticality — the ability to explode forward and create occasional fast-break opportunities — is exhilarating. Adding this to the mix rewards teams that create all the shot quality above with a little bit of extra verve. (Relevant category: direct speed, a Stats Perform measure of how many meters a team’s average sequence advances the ball.)
* Switches and through-balls (2%): I just enjoy them! (Relevant categories: switches of play and through-ball attempts per match.)
* Tension (7%): If you are up or down by a few goals, and the match is effectively over, things get pretty unwatchable pretty quickly, right? (Relevant category: percentage of a team’s matches that take place with the score within one goal.)
* Entertaining big matches (15%): In heavyweight-versus-heavyweight matchups, we can often see an overwhelming amount of caution. Let’s reward the teams that throw caution to the wind against the best opponents on the schedule. (Relevant measures: goals scored and total goals in matches against teams averaging at least 1.5 points per game in league play — the better teams in the league.)
Based on all the above categories, which are weighted to my whims, I graded every team in Europe’s Big Five on a 0-10 scale of watchability. Below are the results.
(Note: You can find 2022’s rankings here. and 2021’s rankings here.)
