The Super Rugby Pacific table doesn’t lie but it’s certainly guilty of slipping in a few little fibs at the moment.
As the Waratahs prepare to take on the Blues at Eden Park on Saturday afternoon (and the weather looks favourable), the table tells you they just need a win against the seventh-best team in the comp to make the finals, given that Moana Pasifika will be hard-pressed to beat the Hurricanes in Wellington.
But even setting aside the Eden Park factor, there is no way the Blues are the seventh-best team in the competition. Or, more specifically, the Blues team named for the Waratahs game isn’t the seventh-best team.
All season, the Blues have struggled to put their top team on the paddock, with injuries and suspensions hurting their cause.
But on Saturday they’ll roll out Patrick Tuipulotu, Hoskins Sotutu, Dalton Papalii, Beauden Barrett, Rieko Ioane, Caleb Clarke and Mark Tele’a together, and it’s the only third time those heavyweights have all been available at the same time.
On the previous two occasions, they beat the Hurricanes and Moana Pasifika.
In fact, the Blues’ loss to the Brumbies at Eden Park in round four in March was a good snapshot of their campaign so far. With Barrett in fine touch, they led 20-10 at halftime. Then he suffered a broken hand and didn’t return for the second 40 minutes, and the Blues didn’t score another point as the Brumbies beat them 21-20.
The Waratahs could do with a similar slice of luck on Saturday, because the Blues game looks nothing short of a daunting way to wrap up their season, particularly without Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii in the side.
Suaalii would have given them a puncher’s chance in Auckland, but without him they are going to be up against it – especially with a young No.9 and No.10 pairing of Teddy Wilson and Jack Bowen.
The latter was excellent off the bench against the Western Force last weekend, but faces a big step up starting a game against Barrett, who is the favourite to start the Test season as the All Blacks No.10.
Barrett’s longevity, and the role carved out by James O’Connor at the Crusaders, raises the question of whether the apparently ageless Bernard Foley could bring some value to the Waratahs next year if Tane Edmed moves the Brumbies.
Joyous Waratahs players celebrate.Credit: Getty Images
Foley, 35, will contest the Japan Rugby League One final against Richie Mo’unga’s Toshiba Brave Lupus on Sunday, so the competitive fire is clearly still burning within the veteran playmaker.
But in the near term Bowen’s chances of running the Waratahs attack on his own terms will depend on how his tight five performs.
Angus Bell is a class act. He had the Crusaders prop Kershawl Sykes-Martin under pressure in Sydney two weeks ago and will look to repeat that, although Blues tighthead Marcel Renata is a savvier, more experienced operator than the Crusader.
But it’s really in the middle row where the Waratahs have to deliver, with the focus on big Miles Amatosero. He showed some really rough edges at the start of the season, but during the past few weeks he has started to show what the rewards could be if the Waratahs do invest in him for the longer term.
The return of the experienced Matt Philip will do wonders for Amatosero next year, and if he can resist the temptation to fight every war on the field, there are emerging signs he can be an asset.
He is, in fact, not too dissimilar in his physical profile to Tuipulotu, and it’s no secret that the Blues will look to establish dominance first and foremost through their big men. The other position where the Waratahs really need to find some answers is at No.7. Charlie Gamble, absent in Auckland, empties the tank every week, but there are indications that he has hit his ceiling this year, and it is lower than the opensides at the other Australian clubs.
It’s an area that Dan McKellar arguably needs to strengthen next year, regardless of how Saturday plays out.
Should the Waratahs fail to make the top six, murmurs of underperformance will naturally follow. But the season has roughly followed the path mapped out in advance by most realists, and the injuries to Suaalii and Max Jorgensen also had a major impact.
McKellar needs some smart recruiting over the off season to complement Philip and Pete Samu – they are still some way short of the opposition at the top end of the table.
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