The UEFA Champions League returns this week with the quarterfinals as Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Benfica, Inter Milan, Real Madrid, Chelsea, AC Milan and Napoli battle it out for a chance to advance. The First legs begin on Tuesday April 11 with the second legs starting on April 19.
So, what is the best advice for bettors looking to get in on the Champions League action this week? Paul Carr and Dalen Cuff break it all down for you here.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Tuesday
Man City (-135) vs. Bayern Munich (+340) Draw (+290)
Champions league quarterfinal action gets underway on Tuesday night with Manchester City taking on Bayern Munich as the English club looks to secure their first European Cup title against six-time winner Bayern. What are your thoughts on the odds and which team do you see coming away victorious?
Paul Carr: As tempting as the longshot prices are for a Bayern win or draw, especially with Thomas Tuchel’s history of frustrating Man City, I’m sticking with the better team here. City are rolling like few teams can, with eight straight wins and at least three goals in six of those games, plus City knows they need a good result in this game with the second leg in Munich. I’m going to parlay the City double chance with over 2.5 goals to get an even-money parlay.
Dalen Cuff: I’m not as tempted as Paul is here with Bayern. Thomas Tuchel is only three games in with mixed results beating Dortmund and Freiburg while losing to Freiburg in the DFB Pokal. It’s a little juicy, but my favorite play is City to win -135. Tuchel’s success against Pep Guardiola may come in how he sets up his team, being the first game of a two-legged tie, he may be hoping to minimize goals leaked as opposed to scoring themselves. I think the under 2.5 goals +120 is in play.
Benfica (+112) vs. Inter Milan (+265) Draw (+220)
Carr: Both teams are coming off disappointing weekend results, but Inter’s form has been much worse lately, going winless in six straight games including Friday’s 1-1 draw at Salernitana. While Inter’s underlying numbers look better than their results, struggling against bottom-half teams isn’t a good sign for their chances in Portugal.
Cuff: Benfica lost to Porto in a fairly even game on Friday for their first defeat of 2023 but have still scored in all 17 games this year, with multiple goals in 13 matches. Benfica have been better than Porto on the whole this season and Inter was fortunate to get by Porto last round. I’ll take plus money on Benfica to win this game.
Wednesday
Real Madrid (-145) vs. Chelsea (+400) Draw (+270)
Carr: Real Madrid don’t seem to do normal games. Their past four matches have averaged 4.5 goals and 3.8 expected goals, and it’s hard to see Real sitting on a small home lead against a weak Chelsea side. The Blues would be thrilled with a low-scoring draw, and the defense may be optimistic with N’Golo Kante and Thiago Silva back in training. I’m not convinced either will hold up for 90 minutes, and Real Madrid will inevitably do Real Madrid things to create goals. I’ll go with over 2.5 goals at -110.
Cuff: I think Madrid’s League form and position in the table factor here. They just lost at home to Villarreal 3-2, are 15 points back from Barca atop the table and Carlo Ancelotti said his team was not 100% motivated at the weekend. They will be Wed at home as the Champions League is their main focus now. Despite the return of Silva and Kante, I think Madrid dominates this game so my play is Madrid -1.5 +205
AC Milan (+180) vs. Napoli (+155) Draw (+220)
Carr: Under 2.5 goals seems like the obvious play, as the -140 price suggests. Other than the 4-0 win at Napoli two weeks ago, when everything seemed to go in, Milan have scored multiple goals once in nine games, while conceding multiple goals twice in that stretch. The Milan loss aside, Napoli’s defense has been strong, and with Victor Osimhen‘s status in doubt, the obvious play is the one I’m making. Under 2.5 goals at -140.
Former ESPN senior researcher Paul Carr is director of content for TruMedia.
