Turn trade bonanza into a flag; just don’t win the spoon: Early 2023 AFL pass marks

With the trade period complete and the draft roughly a month away, AFL clubs are most of the way through their list changes for 2023.

Some already look better; some already look worse. But all have at least a minimum standard they’ll need to hit next season.

Foxfooty.com.au gives every AFL club’s early pass mark for next season.

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ADELAIDE CROWS

Izak Rankine is a huge inclusion and will compliment the building Crows nicely. From 18th in 2020 to 15th in 2021 and 14th in 2022, they will need to rise at least a couple of spots up the ladder in 2023 given the build they’re currently on. They won’t have the likes of Rory Sloane and Taylor Walker for much longer, but if they’re fit and firing in 2023 it makes the side much more imposing and necessitates more than eight wins. There’s still plenty of young talent on the list, led by Fisher McAsey, Riley Thilthorpe and Josh Worrell, but there are enough players approaching or in their mid-20s to mean output must improve next season.

PASS MARK: 10-13 wins, finish at least 11th

BRISBANE LIONS

No more excuses for Brisbane. It’s now or never in terms of a premiership in the near-to-medium term. Josh Dunkley’s arrival has bolstered their thin midfield and from all reports Will Ashcroft will make an immediate impact in the senior side next season. Add to that Jack Gunston who if fit will be an upgrade on the now-departed Daniel McStay and it is a lineup that is not wanting for much at all. The defence continues to be a sore spot for the Lions at times, but full pre-seasons for Harris Andrews and Marcus Adams will hopefully help lock down the key posts more effectively than this season. Dayne Zorko will be 34 when the season begins, Jarryd Lyons turns 30 next year and looked to take a significant decline in form late this season, while Daniel Rich will be 32 at the end of next year and has had soft-tissue setbacks in the past. Next season is the best they are going to get for some time. With Chris Fagan set to return to the club in the final year of his contract, 2023 is a make-or-break season for Brisbane in so many ways.

PASS MARK: 15-17 wins, finish in the top four and make the Grand Final

CARLTON

The Blues were literally seconds away from returning to the finals in their first year under Michael Voss, but an agonising defeat to arch-rivals Collingwood took it from them. Needless to say, finals is a must for the Blues in 2023. It arguably was in 2022 – it was certainly the expectation of Voss and the wider club – but the circumstances in which they fell short means it’s easier to forgive (albeit only slightly). With Blake Acres set to prove a marked upgrade on one of Carlton’s wings, they’ve addressed their need and will enter 2023 with plenty of expectation. Surely lightning doesn’t strike twice for the Blues next year… finals have to be the destination.

PASS MARK: 14-16 wins, win a final

COLLINGWOOD

The Pies would have to be the hardest team to gauge what a pass mark is in 2023. So many of their 2022 wins were nail biters – was it just an aberration? If it was, and those sorts of games are instead split down the middle – the Pies would not have finished in the top four. Conversely, the fact the Pies won so many close games in 2022 and were desperately close to making the Grand Final shows there’s more to it than sheer luck. This is a side that was grossly underestimated in 2022, so there may well be a big overcorrection heading into 2023. Usually, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. A finish in the sixth-to-eighth bracket may be a more realistic goal for the Pies next season but their fans will be expecting plenty.

PASS MARK: 13-15 wins, finish top six

ESSENDON

Brad Scott appears to be laying the groundwork for a building side, not one that is going to rocket back up the ladder after a disappointing season. Whether that’s enough of a concession to satiate Bombers fans, we’ll have to wait and see. Whatever the case, a season like 2022 simply won’t be acceptable. Just seven wins was hard for Essendonians to cop after a finals run in 2021, while some of the losses were nightmarish. The lack of defensive integrity, the thinness of the midfield, the Peter Wright or bust entries up forward… it all went wrong this season. If the list is relatively healthy, then Essendon should at the very least avoid blowouts like we saw in the finals two rounds of the season (an 84-point loss to Port Adelaide and 66-point loss to Richmond). Ultimately, Essendon fans will just want to see something resembling a bankable game style and consistency.

PASS MARK: 10-12 wins, finish above 12th

FREMANTLE

It was a great season for the Dockers despite bowing out in a semi-final. It was a marked improvement on 2021 and the arrival of Luke Jackson only adds to the excitement around them in 2023. The big variable is Nat Fyfe, who couldn’t get his body right for virtually the entire season. If he’s able to play at a high level consistently next year, he will make a huge difference to the side in the middle and up forward. If he isn’t, however, you still back the Dockers to make do as they did this season. Now that Fremantle has had a taste of finals action, a return to the top eight is the bare minimum. Ideally they should be trying to finish in the top four – the top two would obviously be a huge advantage given the Optus Stadium factor, but that would be overreaching for many.

PASS MARK: 14-16 wins, finish at least top six

GEELONG CATS

After so many near misses, the Cats finally scaled the mountain in 2022. One could be forgiven for thinking there’ll be a natural drop-off now they finally reached their goal, but they then went and added Jack Bowes, Tanner Bruhn and Oliver Henry to their lineup and have pick No.7 in this year’s draft. That cliff we all thought was coming? It isn’t. They might not have an immediate impact, but this side is a force to be reckoned with as long as Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron are commanding the forward line. Joel Selwood’s retirement may prove a blow once the season gets underway, but Tom Atkins and the like may well relish the chance to step up in his absence, let alone the fact Patrick Dangerfield was barely anywhere near his best for much of the home and away season. They look like being right amongst it yet again next year. Given the premiership win, Cats fans would forgive a bit of a slide, but for them it may well not be as big as it could’ve been.

PASS MARK: 15-17 wins, finish in the top four

GOLD COAST SUNS

The Suns are getting closer to their maiden finals appearance. This season they didn’t fall off the face of the earth as they had in the second halves of seasons past, while the development of the midfield continued to impress. When Ben King went down with an ACL injury before the season started, there was plenty of doom and gloom around, but the Suns instead now have to figure out how to fit King in along with boom recruits Mabior Chol and Levi Casboult. Jarrod Witts had a great return season from injury, Touk Miller cemented himself as a star of the competition and Noah Anderson is looking better with each passing game. There’s no reason the Suns shouldn’t be aiming for a finals berth in 2023 and, given the talent there and the build under Stuart Dew, that may well be the pass mark.

PASS MARK: 12-14 wins, make the finals

GWS GIANTS

The Giants have effectively undergone a mini-reset under new coach Adam Kingsley and as a result expectations shouldn’t be too lofty in 2023. Still, they should be hoping for more than just six wins and third-last. Yes, Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper are no longer in the midfield mix, but there are still some very talented veterans on the list, while there is plenty of young talent due to break through, not to mention the fact they now have the number one pick in the upcoming draft. It will be a fairly long road back to September for the Giants, but having said that there’s enough talent already – and more coming through – to expect more than what 2022 brought.

PASS MARK: 7-10 wins, avoid the bottom four

HAWTHORN

Coach Sam Mitchell pre-empted what sort of year the Hawks can expect when he left his side with just one player over the age of 30 on his list. Hawthorn are officially in rebuild mode and it’s going to be a grind in 2023 as youngsters are given the chance to find their feet. There are some positives looming for the club, with Max Lynch stepping up after crossing from the Magpies at the end of 2021. Injury may have limited him to just seven games this season, but he showed enough promise. Jai Newcombe is only getting better while the young attack end of Mitch Lewis and Jacob Koschitzke are still forming their craft against the game’s best defenders. Hawthorn’s back six were confident enough to take the game on early in the 2022 season. James Sicily is a key piece of that defensive unit while the return of Sam Frost will boost the club’s chances of securing wins in 2023.

PASS MARK: 6-9 wins, avoid the bottom four

MELBOURNE

The Demons fell to a straight sets finals exit in 2022, despite being the most dominant team of the competition before the mid-season bye. The fitness of Christian Petracca played a massive part in that finals exit, while the inability to find a forward line answer cruelled their premiership hopes. But Tom McDonald looms as a key figure for the Dees in attack, after he failed to play past Round 10 due to injury. Harrison Petty also showed plenty as a makeshift forward when his side got desperate, making the transition from defence with ease in their semi final loss to Brisbane. The loss of Luke Jackson is offset by the addition of Brodie Grundy this trade period. How the club balances the ruck time of Grundy and skipper Max Gawn will be a massive talking point in 2023. But with the likes of Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Angus Brayshaw at their feet, first use shouldn’t be an issue for Melbourne next season.

PASS MARK: 15-17 wins, finish in the top four

NORTH MELBOURNE

There’s no doubt it’ll be another tough slog at Arden Street in 2023. They’ve lost Jason Horne-Francis and traded away the number one pick this year so they can snap up two early first rounders in the Draft. There’ll (presumably) be a new coach at the helm in Alastair Clarkson – he’s yet to begin given the Hawthorn racism investigation – so that means a new game plan and new footy department set-up. But the club will head in the right direction if they can continue to pump games into their young list. The likes of Jackson Archer, son of club great Glenn, will help fast-track his development, while Will Phillips is by all reports finding his way after missing the entire 2022 season through illness. Luke Davies-Uniacke continues to impress while there’s plenty of tall targets for the club to choose from. Some support for young Nick Larkey will go a long way for the club’s success. Ben McKay’s fitness will be key to the club’s hopes of snaring a few wins in 2023.

PASS MARK: 6-9 wins, avoid the bottom two

PORT ADELAIDE

The Power underperformed in 2022 but resisted the urge to make mass changes and give coach Ken Hinkley the boot after missing finals for the first time since 2019. Instead the club opted to back in the talent they’ve got – plus add the likes of last year’s number one draft pick Jason Horne-Francis and Junior Rioli to replace retired forward Robbie Gray. Horne-Francis is a big unknown for the Power, as a 19-year-old entering just his second year of footy after a see-sawing year at North Melbourne. But if he, and Rioli for that matter, can find their feet at the Power, Port Adelaide loom as a danger side. They fell to 0-5 this season on the back of a horror injury toll. Orazio Fantastia didn’t get on the park while Charlie Dixon didn’t make an appearance until Round 11 and Aliir Aliir struggled through his early injury setback. A fit squad will keep Port in contention; now they’ve got to get the job done in the dying stages after falling to seven losses by two goals or less this season.

PASS MARK: 13-15 wins, win a final

RICHMOND

At risk of being a little harsh on the Tigers, their squad looms as one of the most dangerous in the competition. Without superstar Dustin Martin for much of 2022, and with key forward Tom Lynch sidelined through periods of the season, Richmond still found their way into finals, and were seconds away from progressing to the second week. Adding the likes of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper for 2023 will only bolster the Tigers engine room, plus it will allow Martin and fellow firestarter Shai Bolton to play more of an attacking role – and that can only be a good thing for those at Tigerland. Josh Gibcus has shown he’s a player for the future, Noah Cumberland is getting better with each game, plus they’ve got solid players in that 26-30 age bracket that are primed for their best footy, including Ivan Soldo and Nick Vlastuin. Liam Baker will be just 25 when the new season rolls around, and is a player who can spark the side. Coach Damien Hardwick will be eyeing finals, and top four.

PASS MARK: 15-17 wins, make the top four

ST KILDA

The Saints are a tricky prospect to judge heading into 2023 given the promise they showed early this season and the slump that followed post-bye. St Kilda are without a head coach, although Ross Lyon is seemingly in the box seat to return, and have been accused of becoming the “list clogger capital of Australia” by Fox Footy’s David King due to their recruiting strategy of years gone by. But there’s a renewed focus at the Saints, with some believing the club is ready to adopt the “ruthless” approach that’s been missing. Max King remains a shining light for the club and will only get better with another season under his belt. Rowan Marshall is expected to step up with Paddy Ryder’s retirement while the likes of Marcus Windhager and Jade Gresham showed plenty in their 2022 seasons. Add excitement machine Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Jack Higgins to the mix and the Saints could have some crafty options in attack.

PASS MARK: 11-13 wins, finish above 11th

SYDNEY SWANS

The Swans showed they are a team to be feared in 2022, despite saving their worst performance of the season for grand final day. Sydney are confident in their young list and were largely inactive this trade period as a result. They now hold two first round picks for the upcoming draft to further bolster their young stocks. With Lance Franklin back for another year, and top 10 pick Logan McDonald waiting in the wings, Sydney’s attack certainly has enough firepower to compete with the best. The Swans backline, including the McCartin brothers, proved a revelation in 2022. With only Franklin, Dane Rampe, Tom Hickey, Sam Reid and Luke Parker on their list for 2023 over the age of 30, it’s prelim final or bust for John Longmire and his Swans next season given the sheer talent they’ve got in their squad.

PASS MARK: 14-16 wins, finish in the top four

WEST COAST EAGLES

The 2022 season was simply a write off for the Eagles after the club was so decimated, it had to dip into the Covid player reserve just to field a team at times in unprecedent scenes. But despite plenty of youngsters getting shot this year, there wasn’t a stand out player to lock themselves in to the best 22. It’s well known the Eagles are short on top young talent, after giving up their early picks to secure Tim Kelly. But they now head into this year’s Draft with their best hand in more than a decade. The decision to trade their pick two for picks eight and 12 gives the club two bites at the first round draft cherry. The return of Oscar Allen – who didn’t feature at all in 2022 due to injury – is set to help offset the massive loss of veteran Josh Kennedy. Tom Barrass showed he is capable of leading the Eagles defence, which will be bolstered by Jeremy McGovern – who managed just 10 games this season. The Eagles midfield core still features the likes of 2018 premiership trio of Luke Shuey, Elliot Yeo and Andrew Gaff. But just getting their best players on the park will need to be the priority in 2023.

PASS MARK: 6-9 wins, avoid the bottom four

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Despite never sitting higher than eighth on the ladder – and spending just four rounds in that spot – this season, the Dogs scraped into finals. And they were out of the blocks early in that elimination final against Fremantle in Perth and looked prepared for another stunning finals run before it all fell apart. Just three goals in the following three quarters ensured they meekly bowed out of the race. The Dogs turned cutthroat this off-season, delisting the likes of “heart and soul player” Mitch Wallis. The addition of Rory Lobb will ease the pressure on Aaron Naughton in attack while the return of Liam Jones should help address the club’s defensive woes. Where to play young Sam Darcy is a pre-season problem of the best variety for coach Luke Beveridge and the Dogs. A pre-season under Josh Bruce’s belt will set him up for a big year after returning from that ACL injury in 2022, plus prized pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan showed plenty late this season in promising signs for the Dogs attack end. The Western Bulldogs will want to at least host a final in 2023 – and it’s still remarkable they’ve never made the top four under Beveridge.

PASS MARK: 13-15 wins, finish at least top six