Trend or mirage?
It is still very early in the season, but we are starting to see some evidence of what to expect from certain clubs this year. Below, we have had a crack at picking which starts to 2025 are a trend or mirage.
Adelaide’s 2-0 start: Trend. No team scored more points in 2023 than Matthew Nicks’ Crows, despite them finishing 10th, and they started this year with 21 then 25 goals. Last year was a step backwards, in part because the likes of Josh Rachele struggled, and Adelaide were ravaged by injury in defence – but ex-Pie Mark Keane was a discovery. Now, with Keane, a fit-again Nick Murray, a more-experienced Josh Worrell and the impressive Max Michalanney, they have a good base to hold up, while the offensive explosions take place at the other end. Adelaide recruited well, have one of the game’s best players in Jordan Dawson, an ascending star in Riley Thilthorpe and a good blend of youth and experience, plus role players and guns.
Izak Rankine and Riley Thilthorpe celebrate a goal.Credit: AFL Photos
Carlton’s 0-2 start: Mirage. The Blues were woeful in round one, but better on Thursday night against an unbeaten Hawthorn, although their wastefulness in front of goal cost them again in the final term. Sure, Carlton might not have the wealth of brilliant field kicks of other teams – where is Nic Newman when you need him? – and All-Australian defender Jacob Weitering needs more support, but they will stabilise. Winning contested possession and clearance should still serve them well, and would there be such strong reactions if they had not coughed up a 41-point lead to Richmond? It’s not as bad as it seems.
Essendon’s 0-2 start: Trend. The Bombers needed several kids to blossom, and a good injury run, to avoid their depth being exposed. Neither has happened yet. They teased their fans with a strong first half of the season the past two years, but the struggles have begun early in 2025. None of Kyle Langford, Darcy Parish, Jordan Ridley, Matt Guelfi, Jayden Laverde, Peter Wright, Nik Cox, Will Setterfield or Alwyn Davey jnr was available against Adelaide – and not even playing in Melbourne could spare Brad Scott’s side from a heavy defeat. There are concerns across the field, but you can rarely blame Zach Merrett, Jye Caldwell, Sam Durham or Nic Martin.
Richmond’s 1-1 start: Mirage. The trend was what we saw against Port Adelaide, not the unlikely victory from seven goals down against Carlton. No.1 pick Sam Lalor must have thought this AFL business was easy after his debut, but won only two disposals in the first half and four to three-quarter time in the 72-point smacking from the Power. The Tigers are short on top-end quality, and experienced and reliable players, so most games will be hard – but their fans were spoiled in the Damien Hardwick era. They should set modest expectations on a pass mark, simply hoping to see enough positive glimpses from the club’s young guns.
Hawthorn’s 3-0 start: Trend. But with an asterisk. The Hawks were challenged in all three matches to date, so that is a watch and the hype should be kept in check – but they responded each time, which is a tick. It’s not sustainable for Mabior Chol to effectively be the sole tall target up forward, even with how good Hawthorn’s mosquito fleet is, from Nick Watson to Dylan Moore, Connor Macdonald and Jack Ginnivan. Mitch Lewis’ recovery from an ACL rupture is crucial to the Hawks’ hopes, but they are doing plenty right. Jai Newcombe is the best mid-season draftee ever, and Will Day might be an All-Australian by year’s end.
Geelong’s loss to St Kilda: Mirage. The Saints have now won four of their past six clashes with the Cats, which is an oddity, given the clubs’ overall performances in that time. However, this result should not significantly change how you feel about either side. Bailey Smith was a big late out, while Tom Stewart lasted only 23 minutes either side of a right knee injury, the severity of which is still unknown. Geelong coach Chris Scott paid “Marvel experts” St Kilda credit for their ball use and ability to absorb pressure, but his side lost many of the key statistics early and paid a scoreboard price.
Bailey Smith was a big late out for Geelong.Credit: Getty Images
Melbourne’s and Fremantle’s 0-2 starts: Trend. The finals aspirants suffered contrasting, but equally notable, losses on Sunday that put them in an immediate hole. The Demons were optimistic after a gallant defeat to a good GWS team, but North Melbourne beat them up around the ball and put them to the sword in an 11-minute blitz to start the last term. Simon Goodwin’s squad has a chance to turn things around against Gold Coast next, and it is still early, but there are concerns. As for the Dockers, Swan Joel Amartey consigned them to a narrow home defeat to go with the thumping they copped off Geelong a week ago. In a tight competition, those hurt down the track, and Freo desperately need their big-name midfielders to lift.
Blessings in disguise
We are often guilty of handing out praise for clubs that scoop up a bevy of recruits in the player movement period, and can be critical when rivals who chased the same players missed out on them. But what about if those latter teams were the actual winners?
Hawthorn, for example, unsuccessfully chased both Ben McKay and Esava Ratugolea at the end of 2023, but ended up with fellow tall defenders Tom Barrass and Josh Battle instead. Neither McKay (Essendon) nor Ratugolea (Port Adelaide) have made a significant impact at their new destinations.
In fact, McKay has lost more one-on-one defensive contests than any player this season, although the Bombers did not help his cause on Saturday. “I don’t think he’s a great defender, at all,” ex-Saint Leigh Montagna said on Triple M. “He’s a terrific intercept mark, and he can clunk it as well as anyone, but in terms of being able to defend, I don’t think he’s quite at the level.”
Essendon must also be questioning their Jade Gresham investment. He averaged fewer than 14 disposals and kicked only 19 goals from 22 games last year before serving as the substitute in round one. Gresham won 11 disposals and kicked 1.2 against Adelaide.
The jury is out, too, on Collingwood’s high-priced free agency recruitment of ex-Giant Harry Perryman, who followed his 27-disposal debut in round zero with a combined 25 across the past two games. Missing out on forward Jack Lukosius (Port Adelaide) enabled the high-octane Crows to pivot to the cheaper option of James Peatling, and they have outscored everyone to date in 2025.
Essendon signed Jade Gresham in free agency at the end of 2023.Credit: AFL Photos
Big-time performers
They might not receive the same attention as others, but these five players were among the most important for their teams at the weekend.
Tom Liberatore has lived his AFL career in the shadow of his Brownlow Medal-winning father Tony, as well as Marcus Bontempelli, and is best known for his quirky personality and tattoos. But make no mistake, Liberatore is an excellent midfielder in his own right. He should bring up game No.250 this year and is off to a super start, including 34 disposals, 18 contested possessions, nine clearances and a goal against Collingwood.
Liberatore’s ex-teammate Jack Macrae is making a case for recruit of the year through two rounds, averaging 34.5 disposals (25 effective), 10.5 clearances and 7.5 tackles. Champion Data rates all of those numbers as “elite”. Well done, St Kilda.
Over at Arden Street, there were queries last year on whether North should continue giving Jy Simpkin centre-bounce opportunities. However, Simpkin has bounced back to his best in 2025 and has a big role to play for a young Roos squad as a leader, standard-setter, and with his hardness and smarts.
Adelaide captain Jordan Dawson is a star, and probably sits among the top 15 players in the competition. The ex-Swan seldom plays a bad game and his best is almost as good as anyone. Dawson is only a one-time All-Australian, but expect that to double this season.
Finally, the Power experimented with usual-forward Willie Rioli in the centre on Saturday, and may have unearthed a new weapon. Rioli has always been a high-IQ footballer with an exquisite kick, and he used those talents to good effect to win two centre clearances from eight centre-bounce attendances, while still slotting three goals.
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