By Nick Berney
Selections based on a soft track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 – 1:25PM JOHNSON & MONGAN CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1600M)
4. Bob finished second and beat the rest easily in a strong time race relative to the day at Newcastle 20 days ago. Further, he chased a fast tempo throughout and never shirked his task to the line. Further, the eventual winner King Frankel has since come out and run well in stronger grade. The five-year-old is rock-hard fit, brings the best last-start figure and has a favourable map. Each way.
Dangers: Import 3. Jack Duggan wasn’t suited first-up in a moderate tempo at Scone, and he battled on OK. The gelding will undoubtedly improve from that run, and the step up in distance is ideal. 2. Into The Blue is a consistent type, and all his career-peak figures have come on rain-affected ground. 1. Too Good To Be Tru has had factors against in both runs this preparation. He is a key late-market watch and can bounce back.
How to play it: Bob each way.
Odds & Evens: Split.
Race 2 – 2:00PM TONY BALL RACING COUNTRY BOOSTED MAIDEN PLATE (1000M
9. Venatic, who represents value, was specked $12-$10 on debut last prep and had excuses. The filly raced greenly and was forced into the inferior ground, but to her credit, she battled on well and tried hard to the line. The three-year-old resumes after one soft trial where she wasn’t extended and looks to have come back improved. Each way.
Dangers: 10. War On Bling was outstanding first-up at Scone after racing four-wide throughout and was just beaten on the line in a solid time race. She receives a significant barrier change and maps to have all favours. 5. De Lovely lad and 7. Fiery Panz bring strong starting price profiles to this event and have a fitness edge.
How to play it: Venatic each way.
Odds & Evens: Split.
Race 3 – 2:35PM BAKEWELL HAULAGE KRAMBACH CUP (1600M)
1. Greek Hero was honest first-up in a Benchmark 78 at Randwick and had to race in the inferior ground throughout. Second-up, he got too far bar back in a slow tempo but ran on well into the placings, clocking the fastest final 200m split of the entire meeting in 11.50. The Jason Deamer-trained runner sectional/ratings profile suggests he is ready to peak third-up. In addition, he maps to have all favours, brings the best last-start figure and is proven on rain-affected ground. Hard to beat with even luck.
Dangers: 3. Super tried hard in defeat last start at Warwick Farm and ran on well. The seven-year-old hasn’t won in a long time but has a favourable map, and this is the easiest race he’s contested for some time. 4. Valleys Sister is ticking over well and receives a significant barrier change here. 2. Catesby brings metropolitan form lines and will roll forward.
How to play it: Greek Hero.
Odds & Evens: Odds.
Race 4 – 3:10PM ALLAN BAKEWELL MEMORIAL KRAMBACH SPRINT (1250M)
7. Deep Snow resumes and has trialled well, hitting the line hard in a fast time heat at Scone. The consistent type raced well last prep in time/sectional merit races, and his figures line up solidly against his rivals here. The gelding has had factors against him in his past two first-up efforts, and he can rate to win from the soft draw.
Dangers: 2. Poseidon Ruler has trialled well enough, and the in-from apprentice Anna Roper rides. He has a tricky gate but will undoubtedly be hitting the line. 1. Bugalugs is a last-start winner and brings a fitness edge. 5. Xtra Approval had all favours winning a TAB Highway (1400m) last start but draws perfectly, and senior rider Grant Buckley rides.
How to play it: Deep Snow win.
Odds & Evens: Split.
Race 5 – 3:50PM CELLARBRATIONS AT WINGHAM MAIDEN PLATE (1250M)
8. Little Beginnings raced in the inferior ground throughout on debut at Scone 21 days ago and was beaten in a photo finish. Moreover, he sprinted one of the meetings fastest 400m-200m splits in 11.44. The three-year-old is still immature but will improve with race experience and maps to have all favours.
Dangers: Debutant 11. Millennibarr has trialled well and went through the line full of energy in a recent heat at Port Macquarie. She has drawn well, and Ben Looker rides. 6. Denarvi is suited up in distance and 10. Jaex hit the line well first-up at Kembla. Market watch 13. Willinga Karisma who started favourite in front of Little Beginnings first-up.
How to play it: Little Beginnings win.
Odds & Evens: Split.
Race 6 – 4:30PM KRAMBACH HOTEL MAIDEN HANDICAP (1400M)
4. Dreamdeel resumed at Hawkesbury 15 days ago and was bravely defeated in a high-rating race with decisive margins. Further, he led at a fast tempo and never shirked his task to the line holding on for a place. That race rated highly relative to the day after adjusting for age, class and additional factors. The Allan Kehoe-trained galloper profiles well for this race with a positive map and brings a strong provincial figure to this event. Will take some catching.
Dangers: 1. Dawso got too far back first-up and had to make his run through the inferior ground. The gelding will be fitter, the rise in distance is ideal and a senior rider goes on. 14. Sh’bourne De Lago is ticking over OK this prep and brings a fitness edge. Add 8. Crown and 13. Power Legend to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Dreamdeel win.
Odds & Evens: Split.
Race 7 – 5:10PM VALE TERRY “DIVER” WRIGHT CLASS 2 PLATE – COUNTRY ONLY (1250M)
2. Gold Card had every chance last start at Port Macquarie but was honest running second, and there was a big gap to third. Further, he closed off strongly and ran some of the meeting’s fastest final 600m/400m/200m splits in 36.13/24.89/12.29. The gelding has a tricky draw but will roll forward with the in-form apprentice Anna Roper on board. In addition, she brings a competitive last-start figure and is a definite chance. Each way.
Dangers: 6. Hard To Dismiss made a long-wide sustained run to score at Tamworth last start and did it in style. The mare must drop back in distance but is rock-hard fit and will be savaging the line. 4. Durnstein deserves all honours for his first-up win at his home track and can improve again. 9. Robarge maps to have all favours and brings strong form lines. Add 12. Milingimbi, who gets the blinkers back on, to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Gold Card E/W. Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 8 – 5:50PM MCC USU PICNIC DAY COUNTRY BOOSTED BENCHMARK 58 HANDICAP (1000M)
9. Nevada Smoke, who represents value, resumes without an official trial but races well fresh and has a strong first-up record. The mare has a tricky gate but races at her home track, is proven on the rain-affected ground and can rate to win. Each way.
Dangers: 12. Continuum was solid in defeat six days ago at Port Macquarie after sitting outside the leader at a genuine tempo and battled on well to hold second place. Expect an aggressive ride, and she will take some catching. 1. Ready To Chase maps to have all favours and drops in grade. 2. Slice Of Heaven had no luck first-up after starting favourite in a similar grade race.
How to play it: Nevada Smoke each way.
Odds & Evens: Split.
Best Bets
Race 3: (1) Greek Hero. Race 6: (4) Dreamdeel
Best Value
Race 8: (9 ) Nevada Smoke
