By Neil Evans
Track improving Heavy 8/9 and rail out 2.5m from 800m to 350m into a Cut/Away
Race 1 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m)
We start over the mile on a surface that will continue to improve. Like the value of underrated seven-year-old 8. The Boomerang who can come back in distance and salute a month between runs. Has placed in two of his last three over further, hitting the line to just miss in deeper grade at Canberra carrying only 1kg less.
Racing returns to Nowra on Sunday.Credit:Fairfax
Dangers: Tough mare 6. Rebellious Miss draws wide, but three of her four career wins have come in heavy going, and she’s hard fit for the extra furlong. Improving and lightly raced 2. Malabar dug in hard to claim a country CL1 second-up, and can give another sight here up in distance in a race with little speed about. Included in exotics 4. Mr Cantankerous who likes it wet; and 1. No Impediment who drops sharply in grade fourth-up from the inside draw.
How to play it: The Boomerang to win. Odds and Evens: Evens a special
Race 2 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1400m)
Similar graded horses over a furlong shorter, and that’s the right recipe for progressive Canberra mare 2. Sweet Honesty who can make it two straight this prep up in distance and a month between runs. Charged home from the back to beat a handy Cl1 field at home, and carries the same weight here after the junior rider’s 4kg allowance.
Dangers: Improving four-year-old 1. Bon Frankie is the immediate threat over more ground third-up; while 7. Chaotic Beauty down in weight off a dominant maiden win three weeks back is clear next best. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Sweet Honesty to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m)
Toughest race of the day with plenty of chances. Sticking strong at the value with three-year-old 12. Midori Fuji despite being a little disappointing on debut when easy in betting. That was her first run in nearly a year, and she did finish through inferior ground that day, and had previously trialled well in heavy going.
Dangers: Stablemate 13. Motion Legend was a rock solid favorite when beaten under a length first-up, although has to overcome a wide draw. Another metropolitan visitor 11. Just An Upstart is in good hands, and was well supported on debut in a useful country maiden where he worked home fairly well from midfield, and is bred to thrive in heavy going. Expect 7. Commando Jack to improve over a further 400m off a handy closing debut in tougher provincial company. Both 14. Starros with blinkers added; and 15. Little Red Power if he gets a start; can run into the minor end of the money.
How to play it: Midori Fuji each way and box exacta 11,12,13. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1200m)
This set up strongly for improving metro filly 11. Power Puff who was preferred here to a stronger race at Newcastle on Saturday, while a couple of the big early fancies went the other way. Draws to get a soft trail right behind the speed, and is over the odds fourth-up.
Dangers: Provincial four-year-old 3. Globe Runner draws well, and will find this much more to his liking back 100m in trip in a weakened race after dropping out a long way when leading at Hawkesbury.
How to play it: Power Puff to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m)
Tricky sprint, with handy depth. Like improving metro four-year-old 3. Packer second-up back a notch in grade over 200m further. Hit the line hard late in a BM 66, and will carry only half a kilo more here after the jockey takes 2kg off, and best form is on heavy tracks.
Dangers: Big watch on 2. Fox Valley who held his ground okay in CL1 country company after a smart second start maiden win in soft ground. Another one from the Matthew Smith stable, 7. Midnight Oasis is drawn out fourth-up off a long break, but only missed by a length in superior grade 12 days ago; while including 8. Anchorage who improves sharply second-up over further.
How to play it: Packer each way. Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 6 MOLLYMOOK CUP BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1200m)
Now for the feature, and it shapes nicely for talented Canberra mare 7. Allgemeine who is ready to strike third-up with key gear changes. Has looked the winner in both runs back so far up to BM 70 grade before being collared late, and is well treated at the weights considering she was placed in the deeper Canberra Guineas Preview over 1400m last prep, and hasn’t been out of the money in all six runs.
Dangers: Honest provincial mare 5. I Am Brazen who thrives on rain-affected ground looms as the clear threat second-up. Tough 1. Shaddy shoots for three straight wins coming back in distance 22 days between runs, and was scratched from the Jungle Juice Cup at Newcastle to be saved for this; while 3. Lady Shenanigans won two straight in the country before narrowly beaten in this grade on Tuncurry Cup day.
How to play it: Allgemeine to win. Odds and Evens: Odds a special
Race 7 MAIDEN PLATE (1100m)
We close the card with the maiden sprinters, and keen to unload on tough mare 7. Hold Fast To Love who has run home well to place in her last three. Drawn to get to the outside here where she prefers, and jockey change is significant.
Dangers: Big watch on emerging filly 12. Mosgold who dug in hard to miss narrowly on debut in heavy ground, and will improve; while 6. Woodbraid Lad heads the rest third-up after doing his best work late third-up off a long spell just 12 days ago.
How to play it: Hold Fast To Love to win. Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS
Race 2: 2. SWEET HONESTY
Race 6: 7. ALLGEMEINE
BEST VALUE
Race 5: 3. PACKER
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.
