By Neil Evans
Track improving to soft 6 and rail out 7m.
Race 1: CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2145m)
We start over the longer trip on an ever-improving track, with several chances. Expecting sharp second-up improvement from imported five-year-old 4. Iowa. Was left flat-footed behind a smart one at Newcastle, but fitter now and yearning for more ground.
Dangers: Tough five-year-old 1. Buff In Disguise dug in hard from the 250m to easily repel a well-backed favourite at Canberra in heavy going. Bred to run this right out but does climb up to 59kg. Keep safe 2. Crime Spree who has been largely disappointing this prep, but worked home into a place here only 11 days ago over the same trip. Gets a little weight relief, with a stronger pilot taking over, and the drying track is a further plus. Big watch on 9. Flying Witness who hit the line into a place in that same race as the top selection third-up, and also suited with a distance rise. Include home-track mare 7. Crazy Ladies after charging home late in heavy ground at Wagga 17 days ago.
How to play it: Iowa each way; first four 1,2,4/1,2,4,7,9/1,2,4,7,9/1,2,4,7,9.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 2: CLASS 1 HCP (1400m)
Keen on progressive three-year-old 1. Acceber peaking third-up over 200m further. Ridden quieter at Kembla and hit the line hard.
Dangers: Tough three-year-old 2. Daytona has been up for a while, and the logical threat behind some solid provincial form. 7. Ningaloo Star, who drops back a long way in grade from Group 2 level;, and lightly raced last-start Canberra maiden winner 5. Louie’s Legacy head the rest.
How to play it: Acceber win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 3: BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m)
Back to the five-furlong sprint shapes ideally for local mare 3. Emperor’s Star who shoots for a third win from her last four. Tracked the speed before surging well clear on the South Coast resuming off a seven-week break, and the sharp rise in weight off-set by a drop back in grade.
Dangers: Another one trained on the track, 2. Brazen Impact defied a betting drift to charge home late here and miss by a nose, and is also coming back from a BM 66. Can carry the weight, but needs the surface to continue drying. Must include tough Canberra mare 9. Redhair’n’freckles who has relished heavy ground to win both starts this prep, but up in grade carrying 3kg more on a firming surface goes against. Included in exotics 4. Scoffa who was well supported at double figure odds before doing best to win third-up in a country Class 1, but taking on some better ones here.
How to play it: Emperor’s Star to win.
Odds and Evens: Odds.
Race 4: BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m)
Solid depth here for this class. At the value, like lightly raced provincial mare 8. Izfallingdown peaking third-up and getting out to the mile. Has worked home well enough from a long way back in two runs this prep, drawn to get a trail, and the improving surface is a big plus.
Dangers: Tough local six-year-old 1. Rent A Rock has travelled far and wide to win his last three, with quieter trials in between. Has tracked the speed before taking over in the straight at his last two and will actually carry 1kg less this time after rookie rider’s 4kg allowance. Boasts a 30 per cent win rate from 15 starts on soft tracks. Keep safe 6. Mr Cantankerous who has been in and around the money in this grade since a Class 2 win four starts back. Included in exotics 4. The Towers who will find this easier than Open Hcp grade; metro mare 7. Another Alibi who will appreciate the step up to the mile third-up; and 10. Rebellious Miss coming off a similar-graded win 16 days ago.
How to play it: Izfallingdown each way.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 5: MAIDEN HCP (1600m)
Love the value of three-year-old filly 9. Mandalong Missile fifth-up. Was very fractious in the barriers before making a complete mess of the start and losing a stack of ground in a deeper provincial race 18 days ago, but has since scored a dominant trial win and can bounce back.
Dangers: Emerging provincial mare 1. Condrieu will be hard to hold out after missing by under a length in a solid debut at Newcastle when easy in betting. Keep safe improving mare 6. Zafarana deep into her prep, but having first run for a new Warwick Farm stable after switching from Queensland. 10. Painte, fifth-up from a soft draw, and 12. The Percentage are both capable of running into a place.
How to play it: Mandalong Missile each way.
Odds and Evens: Odds.
Race 6: MAIDEN PLATE (1200m)
Another one at good value, home track four-year-old 5. Wagunda can strike at just his third start. Has got through the line okay in two deeper maidens to start his career and is drawn to find a trail off the fence three weeks between runs.
Dangers: Big watch on Canberra four-year-old 2. Bombulla Boy who hasn’t started for 17 months. Only trialled quietly in heavy going, but has ability and the stable has a real knack for getting them ready first-up. Honest four-year-old 1. Big Baz resumes from a soft draw, and this is fairly weak, but still may need the run. Drawn the inside, 3. Chilean Express has been placed in a couple of handy maidens for a race like this and the improving track helps.
How to play it: Wagunda each way.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 7: BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1300m)
Not much between a few of these, although very much with talented Rosehill mare 10. Rosie Impact resuming off two progressive trials. Has a tidy fresh record, and took good strides last prep through stronger metro and provincial benchmarks before being well beaten in Group 1 fillies’ company during the Queensland winter.
Dangers: Big watch on progressive 12. Midnight Oasis third-up behind a fast-finishing maiden win at Newcastle 17 days back. Another metro-based mare 9. Squiggles is well-placed deep into her prep and down in weight after missing by a whisker in weaker grade at Canberra. Included in all exotics capable mare 7. Sherwood’s One who did her best work late resuming in a similar race at Moruya, and the winner goes around well fancied in an earlier contest here; while 2. Jamesonheart can produce a big run fresh off two trials.
How to play it: Rosie Impact win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 8: MAIDEN HCP (1400m)
Likely the widest and toughest race of the meeting is saved for last, with a stack of chances. Like promising metro three-year-old 6. Midori Fuji returning as a gelding with blinkers added off a near year-long spell. Has won both lead-up trials and on debut this time last year as a two-year-old was $11.00 into $8.50 in a black-type carnival race.
Dangers: Watch the betting on Savabeel colt 9. Saveadateforme who debuts behind some impressive trial work but is drawn wide. Consistent four-year-old 14. Fenton found the line well from midfield first-up in a handy country maiden and drew to get another economical run just off the speed. Include in wider exotics 2. Savanaci who can improve at second start; lightly raced 4. Leica Storm who draws to get good cover second-up; and 5. Malabar who also improves second-up off a city debut more than 10 months ago.
How to play it: Midori Fuji win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
BEST BETS:
Race 3: (3) Emperor’s Starr. Race 7: (10) Rosie’s impact
BEST VALUE:
Race 5: (9) Mandalong missile
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.
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