The Parramatta Eels have been thereabouts in the premiership race under Brad Arthur, qualifying for the post-season in four of their past five attempts.
But on all four occasions they have fallen short in the second week, although last season’s exit seemed different.
Unlike the semi-final losses of previous years, this time there was little doubting Parramatta had given all it could, potentially one fit Reed Mahoney away from going one step further.
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Now, heading into Thursday night’s blockbuster meeting with Melbourne, the finals come one week early for Brad Arthur’s men.
In fact, The Daily Telegraph’s Paul Crawley went as far as to declare this the “biggest game” in Arthur’s career as he looks to help the Eels break their 36-year premiership drought.
“They have to go to the finals on the front foot,” he said on Fox League’s ‘NRL 360’.
“They had that big win last week but they’re up against the Storm. There is a top-four spot on the line. At the end of the year they lose Reed Mahoney, Isaiah Papali’i, their premiership window is wide open now but to win the comp you need to do it from the top four.”
And this year in particular shapes as the Eels’ best chance of going all the way should they finish inside the top four.
A win on Thursday would see Parramatta match up against Penrith, who it has already defeated on two occasions this season.
Sure, one of them came when Panthers halfback Nathan Cleary was sent off, but even discounting that result the Eels have a habit of troubling their Western Sydney rivals.
Only four of the past 16 games between the two sides have been decided by double digits (one when Cleary was sent off and another where Parramatta rested the majority of its squad).
Despite their success against the Panthers this year, the Eels would still be heavy outsiders against the defending premiers, another factor that works in their favour.
Then you consider the fact Parramatta has not won four games in a row since midway through last year. That is something the Eels would need to do to get to the grand final if they finished outside of the top four.
“They’ve proven they can beat Penrith but one thing they haven’t proven is that they can win three or four in a row,” Crawley said.
“And they haven’t done it in the semi-finals, which is vital and that is where it needs to happen,” Paul Kent added.
Kent believes the potential is there for Parramatta to finally make a legitimate push for the title, but like many others is hesitant to fall for the same trick.
“I like Parramatta this week, they’re on the upswing,” Kent said.
“But you’re right, Parramatta still have it all to prove. For several years now, they’ve got to this stage where we’ve sit back and thought: ‘This may be the year’. But then they’ve gone out and haven’t got past the second round.
“There are a few holes to fill. This is their best chance for some time. I really like the run-in they’ve had. They’ve had a couple of games where they got some good results but this game is going to put a steely edge to what they’re doing and they’ll get an indication of where they’re at.”
With Reed Mahoney, Isaiah Papali’i and Marata Niukore all on the way out at the end of the year, Parramatta’s roster will never be in a stronger position.
But the Eels are keen to keep Shaun Lane, who is off-contract at the end of the 2023 season and has been one of the key cogs in this year’s title tilt.
Lane has averaged a career-high 110 metres this season to go with 48 tackle busts, 11 linebreak assists and 11 try assists (highest of all second rowers).
Former NRL coach Anthony Seibold paid tribute to Arthur and the Parramatta coaching staff for getting the most out of Lane, who he called one of the team’s biggest “weapons”.
“They’re getting him one-on-one with what we call a three-in defender,” Seibold told SEN Radio.
“That’s the third-last defender and nine times out of 10 that is a halfback. So you saw him really give Billy Walters a challenging time when he came off the bench last Thursday evening. Just the way they use Shaun Lane, his ability to offload in traffic, he’s got a pre-line pass.
“I just love the relationship him and Dylan Brown and Mitchell Moses and Clint Gutherson are solidifying on that left edge. They use him in a real effective way. He’s one of the former back rowers in the competition.
“You’ve got to dip your head to Brad Arthur and the coaching staff there, they know they’ve got a weapon there and they’re using him exceptionally well.”
Parramatta’s forward pack as a whole is arguably its greatest strength and something which has caused all kinds of problems for Penrith in previous match-ups.
While the Panthers’ defence can be tough to break down, quick passing through the middle and late offloads are often the best bet and the Eels’ big men possess both of those skills.
“Running hard, creating second-phase play and playing off the back of it and just playing over the advantage line suits them,” Laurie Daley said on ‘The Big Sports Breakfast’, describing that approach as central to Parramatta’s “identity”.
“If they can go with that style, I think it will trouble Melbourne.”
Parramatta halfback Mitchell Moses said similar on Triple M earlier in the week, revealing how a lack of intensity up front was behind its 26-0 shutout defeat to South Sydney.
“We didn’t like how we went into game against the Bunnies,” Moses said.
“We weren’t happy with the physicality that we brought to the game and we definitely wanted to change that and I think our forwards have done that the last two weeks.
“It’s about doing it week-in, week-out now, especially heading into the finals. We spoke about it and addressed it.”
The fact the Eels easily took care of the Bulldogs and Broncos in the past fortnight speaks volumes to their growth given they have struggled to put away lowly sides in the past.
On Thursday night though, Parramatta will get a real indication of just how far it has come under Arthur’s watch and the Eels coach is welcoming the challenge.
“We’ve been presented with an opportunity and we need to look to put a run of wins together,” Arthur said.
“I think both teams will have the same attitude around it. History states, whether you believe it or not, that you’ve got a better opportunity if you finish in the top four. I’m sure both teams will be going for it pretty heavily.
“If someone said at the start of the year the last round would be at CommBank against one of the heavyweights to play for the top four, what more do we want? It’s up to us. They’ll be just as desperate as us for those two points.”
The Storm were uncharacteristically poor in the opening 20 minutes against the Roosters next week and will hardly want to enter the finals off two-straight defeats.
Although as Seibold pointed out, Melbourne had the benefit of playing a game of “real finals intensity” last week, something Parramatta last experienced against South Sydney — and we all know how that turned out.
“Parramatta have had two soft games,” Seibold said.
“And when I say soft, that’s disrespectful, but they’re two games where the scoreboard has been significant for them. They haven’t been in a real contest.
“This will be a bit of a jolt. The last time they played a top-eight side was South Sydney and they got beaten 26-nil. It’s a real test of where Parramatta is at.”
But going back to their last semi-final game, even in defeat the Eels proved they are closing in on a title.
Kent said on Triple M last year that the Eels have “never had the roster” to compete with the likes of the Roosters and Storm and that it is a “myth” that their premiership window is open.
But if Parramatta wins the battle up front, like it has against Penrith twice this year, it has more than enough strike weapons out wide to bust that myth and lift the trophy.
“They’ve got every right to believe in themselves though because even going back to last year, in that semi-final against Penrith, they gave as good as they got that day,” Crawley said.
“It was only a couple of moments that let them down. They were very unlucky. This year they’ve gone out and proven they can beat the best. They’ve got every reason to believe themselves but this is the crunch time, this is the moment Brad has to have them ready to go.”
