The Waratahs have a tough block of games coming up – the Reds in Brisbane on Saturday, the Brumbies in Sydney, and the Hurricanes in Wellington.
In a close competition such as Super Rugby Pacific, those three fixtures could wipe out their early-season gains without the Waratahs necessarily regressing from a performance point of view.
The Reds game, therefore, looms as critical irrespective of the historic rivalry or the individual match-ups across the field.
The absence of Jake Gordon and the fact that Langi Gleeson is a bit beaten up favour the Reds, particularly as they have regained Tom Lynagh and Hunter Paisami.
But there is still a route to victory for Dan McKellar’s side – and a fourth win on the bounce would really set their season up.
The Tupou factor
Reds loosehead Sef Fa’agase is the most improved prop in Australian rugby, by a long way. He’s a prime example of tight forwards not hitting their peak until their late 20s or early 30s, and his set-piece work has improved out of sight. But McKellar has Taniela Tupou exactly where he wants him – playing week-on-week rugby.
Big prop Taniela Tupou is hitting his stride.Credit: Getty Images
That’s the key to unlocking Tupou, and there have been plenty of signs that he is on the upward trajectory. Watching him give the highly promising Marley Pearce a wee lesson in seniority at scrum time last weekend suggests the Tongan Thor is in a good space.
There is still a lot he can contribute around the park, but his core roles are strong and getting stronger. Not many tightheads can squeeze a scrum penalty out of All Blacks and Highlanders loosehead prop Ethan de Groot like he did in round one.
The bomb-y squad
Gleeson’s place on the bench as part of a 6-2 split alongside Siosifa Amone, Felix Kalapu, Mahe Vailanu and English bulldog Jamie Adamson isn’t quite the Springboks’ “bomb squad”, but the intent is clear.
Felix Kalapu got his name on the scoresheet in the win over the Force last week.Credit: Getty Images
Kalapu is underrated – he can play – and if Gleeson is healthy enough to empty the tank for 30 minutes, the Waratahs can finish strongly.
It’s been a strength of theirs during their three wins to date, and the forwards-heavy strategy is probably the right one to take to Brisbane.
Challenge the Dawg
Tim Ryan, aka the Junkyard Dawg, is either on the cusp of a breakout performance or else is suffering from a case of second-season syndrome. There’s nothing in his stats to suggest a slump, and he is certainly trying his heart out.
But there have been fewer signs of the self-confidence that led to the uninhibited performances that caught everyone’s eye last year.
The Waratahs should ask a question or two down his edge – it shapes as a big evening for Triston Reilly.
Us against the world
To the rest of the competition, it might seem bizarre that McKellar is trying to cultivate a view of the Waratahs as plucky outsiders, trying to punch up to the Reds. But that’s exactly what he has been trying to do by latching on to the underdog tag this week – and don’t underestimate how much that can work inside the bubble of a footy team.
Of course, it doesn’t really stack up in the real world when you have Tupou and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii on your payroll. But good coaches find a way of firing up their troops and the reality is that the Waratahs are comfortable outsiders with the bookies.
McKellar will be telling his men no one thinks they can win and that their critics reckon they’ve been lucky to date.
Stop Uru
The Reds can hurt teams in multiple ways, but they’re probably most dangerous when they get their big middle forwards rumbling straight down the guts and getting offloads away.
Seru Uru and Josh Canham are the key men here, and while the Waratahs muscled up against the Force last week, players such as Nick Champion de Crespigny are far less likely to keep the ball alive than Uru.
The Reds’ support runners are excellent at flooding through once the initial half-break or offload is made – especially Harry Wilson, Fraser McReight and Tate McDermott. Stopping them at that point is almost impossible. The Waratahs will have to do it on the gainline.
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