Geelong is the premiership favourite, Melbourne the reigning premiers and Collingwood the fairytale yarn that has gripped the AFL world this year.
Sydney, though, has all the momentum, weaponry and youthful exuberance to usurp those three premiership hopefuls.
It‘s clear John Longmire’s troops are well placed for success beyond this season. Western Bulldogs legend Brad Johnson believes Sydney has the best group of 18 to 23-year-old players in the AFL “by a long, long way”.
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But these Swans, whose rise has been driven by those host of young guns, appear well placed for success this year.
“They’ve been a bit September by stealth, the Swans, but they’re not waiting,” St Kilda legend Nick Riewoldt told Fox Footy’s On The Couch.
“They have got enough weapons in their arsenal to really land a punch.”
UNDER THE RADAR
Of the top-four teams, the Swans have arguably entered this year’s finals series with the least fanfare, despite their impressive form.
The Cats have won 13 straight and the Magpies 12 of their past 13 – almost all of them heart-stopping matches that were impossible to ignore. The Demons, conversely, have won six of their past 12, sparking a rollercoaster media narrative where doubters had ample ammunition to question their back-to-back credentials before stunning wins over Brisbane (twice) and Fremantle.
Since their Round 13 bye, the Swans have won eight of their past nine matches, including seven on the trot. But it‘s been a somewhat understated run to September.
They thumped 14th-placed Adelaide (33 points), the 16th-placed Giants (73) and wooden spooners North Melbourne (38) in a trio of ‘less high-profile’ victories. Then came an impressive 27-point win over Collingwood that essentially secured a top-four berth, but you still sensed the end of the Magpies’ winning streak was ‘the story’.
Foxfooty.com.au last month surveyed several Fox Footy pundits and asked where the Swans sat in the AFL premiership power rankings. While bullish on their future flag chances, all of them said Geelong and Melbourne sat above them in 2022.
“Melbourne and Geelong are locks into the top group and I think Sydney is half a step behind because they’re still a young group,” triple premiership Lion Alastair Lynch told foxfooty.com.au.
“They‘re showing some huge progress, but I suppose we just haven’t seen it as consistently against the top teams. They beat Melbourne at the MCG and their best is right up there, but just because of their young stars coming through, that’s probably why I have half a question mark.”
Triple All-Australian Nick Dal Santo added: “I think they’re one below Melbourne and Geelong – and that’s probably out of evidence more than anything. You can look at the Cats and you can put forward a case of years gone by of ‘hey, I trust this team’ – and we can say that about the Dees off the back of last year.”
All the numbers, though, suggest the Swans can do damage this season.
NO. 1 PREMIERSHIP PROFILE
Dual premiership Kangaroo David King has often pointed to the ‘core four’ – a quartet of statistical categories that determine how well a team is placed to challenge for a flag: Clearance differential, post-clearance contested possession differential, ball movement and defending ball movement.
And, as foxfooty.com.au pointed out in this week’s finals formguide, the Swans enter the finals with the No. 1 premiership profile. Better than Geelong‘s. Better than Melbourne’s.
In an era where transition with the footy is as crucial as ever, the Swans this year have been the best ball movement team and the second-best team at defending ball movement.
King on Wednesday night pointed to vision from the last time the Swans played Melbourne in Round 12 and how disciplined they were from a defensive structure viewpoint.
“I think the way the Swans defend is going to make it very difficult for (upcoming qualifying finals opponents) Melbourne to move the ball,” King told Fox Footy’s AFL 360.
“They are the honest Swans. It’s like trying to get blood from a stone – or blood from a Swan.
“I think Sydney’s defensive game is undersold and underrated … They are so honest it’s frightening.”
The big concern throughout the season on the Swans has been around their ability at the coalface. But they finished the home and away season ranked seventh for clearances and fourth for post-clearance contested possessions. Even better, they were second for contested possession differential across the final six weeks.
“Their game is built for finals,” triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown told Fox Footy’s On The Couch.
“They’ve been able to fix up their contest stuff the last six to eight weeks and their pressure game is outstanding.
“If they can bring that elite pressure like they do every week, they’re going to be in the game.”
THE PERFECT LIST MIX
The Swans made no changes to their line-up for Friday night’s clash against Melbourne. Of their 22-man side, nine are aged 23 and under.
They have perhaps the best spread of youth on their list in the competition. That includes 23-year-old Will Hayward, 22-year-olds Nick Blakey, Justin McInerney and Tom McCartin, 21-year-olds Dylan Stephens, Chad Warner and James Rowbottom and 20-year-olds Logan McDonald and Errol Gulden. That list doesn’t include Ollie Florent, who only just turned 24, Sam Wicks and Braeden Campbell.
It’s a serious core to build around for the future. But the reality is they’ve been key to the Swans’ surge in 2022.
The likes of Florent, Warner and Rowbottom have been given bigger midfield roles, while Blakey and McCartin are crucial cogs in the backline and McDonald shapes as the future forward centrepiece to eventually replace Lance Franklin.
The fact is Sydney has been rebuilding on the run and regenerating its list for several years. Remarkably, it spent just two seasons outside the top eight in 2019 and 2020 as it gradually integrated more youth into the mix and groomed them into bigger roles.
This year, it’s clicked.
“We talked about their young blokes probably 18 months ago,” triple premiership forward Cameron Mooney told foxfooty.com.au.
“I think last year they probably all didn’t step forward together, which happens. But this year you‘re starting to see them all come through again. It’s the perfect example of some great players and some real youth coming through – if you can get that mix right, it’s a fun ride.
“We had it in 2004. We lost to Brisbane in a prelim by nine points. But we had Benny Graham and Peter Riccardi, Brenton Sanderson – all these greats of the club – and then the young brigade coming through. It was the most exciting year I’ve ever played in. It was so much fun.“
Like the Cats’ of ’04, the Swans of ’22 have been mighty fun to watch. But their most exciting period of the year could be over the next four weeks.
