Every AFL draft is a high-stakes game of educated guessing and projection, mixed in with various risks and rewards.
With that in mind, Brayden George is this year’s most-coveted mystery box.
Scouts know he’s a powerful athlete, a leader, highly skilled, disciplined, a good character and already compare him to big-name stars Jordan De Goey and Christian Petracca.
What is there not to like?
Brayden George is one of the most intriguing prospects in this year’s draft.Credit:AFL Photos
But The Age understands many recruiters have drawn a line through George’s name – at least with their first-round pick – based on him rupturing the ACL in his left knee in late August.
He was a surefire top-10 selection before his catastrophic landing from a trademark strong mark, and may even have been snapped up before pick six.
That is no longer the scenario for the talent-rich Murray Bushrangers forward, who plans to add a midfield string to his bow.
George was playing just his second game back when disaster struck, after already spending 10 weeks out recovering from surgery to repair a lateral meniscus tear in his right knee.
He will almost certainly sit out all of his debut AFL season and many recruiters, or their coaches, simply don’t want to wait – or can’t afford to.
Brayden George.Credit:AFL Photos
The key figures behind clubs have never faced more pressure to perform, meaning patience is increasingly in short supply.
Those same recruiters are willing to take the punt if George slides to round two, but that is considered unlikely. The GWS Giants and Sydney have four of the last five picks in the first round, meaning they are more willing to take a chance.
George also isn’t the flight risk some of his draft peers are – the Giants already hinted they can’t pick some of the top talents for this reason – another indicator he might be bound for the Harbour City.
“He’s got more athletic traits than anyone else we’ve had come through our program in the time I’ve been involved, in the last seven years,” Bushrangers talent manager Mick Wilson told The Age. “The way he kicks the footy – you know when you watch a good golfer, and it’s effortless, but their shot still goes further than everyone else and makes that nice sound?
“Him and (ex-Bushranger-turned-Crow) Josh Rachele kick the ball exceptionally well, just with timing and power. “There’s no patience in footy nowadays … they want a ready-made player who can make an impact in his first season, especially in the first round.”
Joel Selwood had a magnificent career after some pre-draft injury concerns.Credit:AFL Photos
George is far from the first highly regarded teenager whose draft stock slumped on the back of a serious pre-draft injury.
Joel Selwood is possibly the most famous example after sliding to No.7 in 2006 because of a knee injury that ruined his draft season. He retired 16 years later after playing in his fourth premiership, to go with six All-Australian selections, 355 senior appearances and becoming the VFL/AFL’s longest-serving captain.
The promise was there: he was an AFL under-18 All-Australian who captained an AFL Academy squad that included the player, Marc Murphy, who went No.1 a year earlier. But six clubs passed on Selwood, at least partly because of concerns about his knee. They all regret it to varying degrees now.
Ryan Burton tumbled to No.19 nine years later because of a gruesome leg break, with accompanying ligament and joint damage.
Jake Lever fell to No.14 in 2014 after an ACL injury, while Jy Simpkin’s broken leg contributed to him still being up for grabs at pick 12 in 2016. Lever required a second knee reconstruction in his fourth AFL season but has developed into an All-Australian defender and played in Melbourne’s drought-busting flag.
In more recent years, Brodie Kemp and even Max King were first-round selections after ACL ruptures but relative bargains where they were taken.
Clubs can no longer compile their own medical data on draft prospects, with the AFL instead using a centralised system with league-appointed doctors and specialists. Medical representatives from each club then huddle around individual footballers on the draft combine’s medical assessment day.
A player’s medical background, convoluted or not, flashes onto a screen behind him or her for select members in a private room to analyse.
AFL national talent ambassador Kevin Sheehan, who was commentating the match where George suffered his football “tragedy”, is a massive fan of the young Bushrangers star.
But Sheehan concedes talent is just one part of the sizable package scouts must consider before investing in a young footballer. There might even be more selfish factors.
“I think every recruiter has got to think about his personal situation,” Sheehan said.
“How long has he been at his club? Where does he sit in their staff structure? What’s his relationship with the coach and is it long term or brand new?
“Plus, the recruiter is just one of the people making the decision, especially when there is an injury involved.”
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