The 2022 season is at its close, but before the sun sets literally and metaphorically on the campaign, there’s some unfinished business needing addressing.
The top three teams are arranged in pairs on the grid in championship order, but after a year of development, they’re all roughly within striking distance of one another. And given all three teams — and of course Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez in particular — have title skin in the game, this will be no simple dead-rubber fixture to end the year.
The same goes for the entire grid in fact. Only first and last in the constructors championship are set in stone, with all other places up for grabs.
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The McLaren and Alpine drivers will line up alongside each other in their scrap for fourth. Aston Martin has a clear chance to outscore Alfa Romeo by five points after Sebastian Vettel’s superb top-10 qualification in his final race, while Alpha Tauri is just about within striking distance of the three points it needs to overhaul Haas for eighth.
With only four points-paying places up for grabs all things being equal, not every team will succeed, but you can be sure they’ll scrap hard for every place.
Whether the cars are up to it is another question. Throughout practice small niggles appeared up and down pit lane. Pierre Gasly’s car literally started falling apart in Saturday practice, his front-right wheel assembly collapsing just for running over a kerb. Alex Albon’s Williams also shed bodywork spontaneously.
After a 22-race slog, the cars are as ready for a break as the rest of the sport. Just one race to go.
RED BULL PRAISES ‘TEAMWORK’ AFTER SLOPPY WEEK
You couldn’t have written a better follow-up chapter to Red Bull Racing’s messy week of intrateam disharmony than qualifying for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Max Verstappen risking sacrificing his second pole lap to give Sergio Perez a slipstream was as good an example of teamwork as you can get in qualifying, and given the Mexican beat Charles Leclerc by just 0.04 seconds, it certainly had an impact.
At a track at which overtaking has historically been difficult, grid position could make a world of difference on Sunday, when Perez must finish ahead of Leclerc to snatch second in the championship and give the team its first one-two drivers title finish.
Both drivers were all smiles afterwards and keen to emphasise the primacy of the team.
“I’m very happy that both cars are on the front row, because we know that of course we want to win the race but we also want to finish second with Checo in the championship,” Verstappen said in a stark change of tone from his post-race radio in Brazil.
“Max did a great job also for me,” Perez said. “We worked together as a team really strongly on that final run.”
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It was all music to team principal Christian Horner’s ears. The boss was even on team radio to both drivers after the session to congratulate them on the result.
“It was a great qualifying from the team,” he said afterwards. “Our first front row lockout of the year and first since 2018.
“We are tremendously happy with the performance as it gives us an opportunity to end our most successful season in the best possible way.”
But the real test will come in the race.
Though Verstappen is best placed to win the race, getting Perez to second is the team’s primary goal. Will it give him the better strategy that requires Verstappen to play interference? Or would Verstappen countenance letting Perez past if they’re racing one-two and hold Leclerc up himself?
It’s a little bit of intrigue in a post-championship race.
FERRARI GETS RARE CHANCE AT REDEMPTION FROM SECOND ROW
Leclerc didn’t have the benefit of a slipstream on his final qualifying lap. Tyre preparation has been unexpectedly tricky this weekend, and both drivers instead had the chance to do their optimal preparation laps rather than worry about positioning themselves for a tow.
It was an opportunity missed to put Leclerc alongside Verstappen, but it at least means both Ferrari drivers will start on the second row.
That sets up a tantalising prospect for the race. Not only is Leclerc still very much in frame to snatch second in the standings from Perez, but it gives Ferrari a chance to prove its season of strategic miscalculations is behind it with a well-executed race.
With two cars in the fight, Ferrari has a decent chance at using tactics to move Leclerc ahead of Perez. Red Bull Racing is of course the most tactically astute team in pit lane, so it won’t be easy, and it’ll be doubly difficult considering Mercedes will be likely be in the mix and hoping to move forward — and second in the constructors standings is still a live issue.
But success here would be a deeply meaningful way for the Italian team to end what it hopes will be a transition season to a full-blooded title tilt in 2023.
“We know Red Bull and Mercedes will have a very strong pace,” racing director Laurent Mekies said. “We can expect a close six-way fight, and tyre management will likely be a key factor again.
“That could present opportunities and we will try to make the most of them.”
In a straight battle it seems almost certain strategies will be split, and if six cars are in the mix, strategy will require careful and delicate calibration.
It’s everything Ferrari’s been weak at this season. It won’t get a better chance to banish those bad memories than at the final race of the season.
W13 RISKS ENDING SEASON WITH A WHIMPER
So much for Mercedes’s storming end to the season.
The final race of the campaign looks remarkably like the first. Ferrari and Red Bull Racing are locked in an interesting battle at the front — albeit their positions are reversed — while Mercedes is reduced to a third wheel, a distant observer of the fight for victory.
It was a proper vintage performance too, with the car’s dreaded bouncing returning, affecting its ultimate performance.
That both Lewis Hamilton and George Russell were so far off the pace in qualifying was a surprise even to the team, with Toto Wolff saying it was a session “to put in the toilet”.
It also confirmed Hamilton’s first ever season in Formula 1 without a pole position, and he seems likely to complete the first season of his racing career without a victory too.
But there is the faintest glimmer of hope that the team might send off 2022 with an at least respectable performance.
After switching back and forth between high-downforce and low-downforce setups across practice sessions, both drivers opted to run more rear wing — and more drag — for qualifying and the race.
It left both cars too far down on the straights to be competitive over a single lap, but it comes in exchange for what the team hopes will be better tyre wear on Sunday — and with the race starting in daylight and an hour earlier than qualifying, managing the tyres will be more important today, particularly in the first half of the race.
Mercedes is already the best car among the top three when it comes to tyre usage, and the race is expected to be delicately balanced between one and two stops. Given there’ll be strategy games among the top four cars, there’s a good chance at least two drivers ahead will stop twice.
If Mercedes can be competitive with just one stop, it might manufacturer itself an advantage.
The W13 has also been more competitive in race trim all season, another reason to expect better form on Sunday.
Will it be enough to snatch a podium or even compete for victory?
“I expect Red Bull to be out of reach, but I hope we can chase Ferrari,” Russell said, tempering expectations. “Let‘s see what tomorrow brings.”
VETTEL’S EMOTIONAL FINAL QUALIFYING — AND HIS PROSPECTS FOR THE RACE
Sebastian Vettel’s final day in Formula 1 has arrived, and the German is fine form for his swan song.
He didn’t disappoint. The man with the fourth most poles in F1 history cracked the pole shootout in his final outing and qualified a commendable ninth, the most on offer from his thoroughly ordinary machinery.
It was five places higher than teammate Lance Stroll, who he beat in Q2 by a comfortable 0.385 seconds despite traffic interruptions.
“It was a bit emotional before getting in the car,” he said. “Once I was in the car I was all thoughts into qualifying, the laps.
“It was coming alive. I was coming alive. It felt good.”
Of course ninth on the grid won’t be remembered as a particular highlight in Vettel’s career — certainly not at Abu Dhabi, where he made himself F1’s youngest ever world champion 12 years ago — but this round as a whole is being etched into the sport’s collective consciousness.
It’s not all that often that four-time champions retire, and it’s clear his imminent departure is leaving a mark.
It started with the all-driver dinner ahead of the weekend — reportedly arranged and paid for by Lewis Hamilton. There are helmet livery tributes and countless exchanges of lids and other gifts.
And then last night Vettel did his final track run, complete with what seemed like most of the paddock, all kitted out in ‘Danke Seb’ white T-shirts — except for the man himself, who wore ‘Danke F1’.
It’s enough to thaw the heart of even the most ferocious competitor in the paddock.
“Tomorrow I think he starts ninth, I start tenth,” Fernando Alonso said. “So I will take care of him at the start, on the first lap, and let’s hope we both see the chequered flag.”
You don’t have to have been a Vettel fan to acknowledge one of the greats taking a most dignified bow out of the sport.
RICCIARDO OPTIMISTIC FOR POINTS IN FINAL RACE — FOR NOW
While Daniel Ricciardo news this weekend has been dominated by him being poised to sign a third-driver contract with Red Bull Racing — something Helmut Marko evidently let slip a little earlier than team and driver intended — on track he’s been piecing together a solid final weekend for McLaren with the promise of points.
Despite this not being on paper a track that would suit the McLaren-era Ricciardo, the Australian has had consistent top-10 potential all weekend. He duly cracked Q3 on Saturday, but 10th fastest means he will start 13th with his penalty for punting Kevin Magnussen out of the São Paulo Grand Prix last weekend.
“I‘m pleased with Q3 because it hasn’t been a sure thing this year,” he said. “So from that point of view, I’m happy to just be in it the whole session and be able to be in the hunt.
“We were competitive enough to give us a little bit of hope.
“I’m looking forward to tomorrow. I will try to attack from the start, make up a few positions and put myself back in the fight with the top 10.”
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McLaren will need him in the top 10 if it’s to have any chance of overturning Alpine for fourth in the constructors standings.
It’s already deeply unlikely as it stands, with McLaren needing to beat the French team by 20 points but with both Alpine drivers starting in the top 10.
Realistically the team needs to hope for some misery among the top three teams ahead. Norris finishing fourth with Ricciardo sixth and both Alpine cars out of the points is probably the least unlikely route to 20 points, channelling the team’s five-six finish in Australia and four-five finish in Singapore.
“We’ll see,” Ricciardo said. “We’ll try to be creative, but I hope on pace we can have a good race.”
