When Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas get into an extended rally in their Australian Open men’s singles final on Sunday night, the Greek should just catch the ball and kick it into the stands. That’s how much of a chance he has of winning the point.
Djokovic has won nine straight matches against Tsitsipas and is an overwhelming favourite to win his 10th Australian Open title at Rod Laver Arena. The length of the rally will be just as crucial to the outcome as the specific shots flowing back and forth.
Here are seven strategy elements that will heavily shape the final.
1: Rally length. Djokovic loves longer rallies
Djokovic has played 180 points in rallies that are nine shots or longer. The Serb has crafted an impressive 50-point advantage (115 won/65 lost) in these lung-busting, lactic acid-inducing exchanges.
In contrast, Tsitsipas has played 112 points in extended rallies of nine shots or longer and has a losing record, winning 54 and losing 58.
Tsitsipas defeated Jannik Sinner in five sets in the fourth round, which is an ideal preview for the final, as Sinner and Djokovic play a very similar game style from the back of the court. Sinner won 23 extended rallies of 9+ shots against Tsitsipas while losing just 14. It’s bad math for the Greek any way you slice it.
Novak Djokovic (left) has the statistical advantage over Stefanos Tsitsipas in almost every aspect of the game.Credit:Getty
If a rally reaches double digits in the final and things look neutral in the baseline rally, know that Djokovic has already invisibly maneuvered himself into a winning position.
2: Backhands … and more backhands
Djokovic has arguably the best backhand in the history of the sport. He will look to take his formidable two-handed weapon and incessantly pound away at Tsitsipas’ one-handed backhand. It’s an unmistakable mismatch in favour of the Serb.
When you see backhands being traded back and forth through the Ad court, know that Djokovic is in the driver’s seat and Tsitsipas is looking for a way out of the backhand cage.
3: Baseline rallies = big advantage for Djokovic
Djokovic leads the tournament in Baseline Points Won at 55.8 per cent (352/630), vastly superior to Tsitsipas’ 49.8 per cent (320/642). It’s hard to fathom that Tsitsipas has reached a grand slam final by winning six out of six matches but has lost more points standing at the baseline than he has won.
It will be almost impossible for Tsitsipas to have a winning record (above 50%) in baseline rallies in the final. On the other hand, Djokovic is virtually a lock to be in positive territory.
4: Net points = a refuge for Tsitsipas
Understanding tennis strategy can be pretty straightforward. Imagine Tsitsipas hitting a deep ball and extracting a short shot in return. It’s a “50-50” ball that he could either stay back and rally or venture forward to the net to try to finish the point. If he stays back, he is more likely to lose the point. If he goes forward, he is more likely to win the point. It’s really that simple.
If Tsitsipas hesitates to come forward on anything, Djokovic will quickly have him on a string running side-to-side at the back of the court with the pressure meter ramping up on the backhand wing.
If Tsitsipas comes forward, he will have to weather the storm of a Djokovic passing shot, but at least he will be applying increasing pressure on his opponent. If Tsitsipas fully commits to coming forward, the pressure will mount as he asks Djokovic to hit dozens of passing shot winners to triumph. The alternative for Tsitsipas is to dig a trench at the back of the court, sprinting side to side hanging on for dear life.
5: Serve and volley
In the 2019 US Open final, Rafael Nadal defeated Daniil Medvedev 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4. Serve and volley was not on the agenda for either player in their pre-match game plans, but the final exploded with 49 serve and volley points as neither of them could forge an advantage at the back of the court. Medvedev won 20/29 serving and volleying, while Nadal won 17/20.
Tsitsipas needs to double down on this strategy against Djokovic as it keeps points short and avoids the inevitable bleeding in brutal baseline exchanges. Djokovic will also benefit from serving and volleying as it will help stop Tsitsipas blocking returns back in court. Those floating returns will be easy pickings when serving and volleying.
6: Returns In Play
Imagine this scenario, which will play out repeatedly in the final. Tsitsipas crushes a big first serve, and Djokovic somehow gets a racket on it and puts the return back in play. Who is now favoured to win the point? Remarkably, Djokovic will be.
During the 2022 season, Djokovic was the only player to win north of 50 per cent (50.3%) of first serve return points when the return came back in the court. This is another solid reason why Tsitsipas should serve and volley a lot, as he is statistically better off hitting a first-shot volley rather than scraping a deep return off the baseline with a defensive backhand.
7: Djokovic’s second serves
Both players have a winning record on second serve points, which is a solid effort considering that the tournament average is just 50.6 per cent (5283/10,428).
Djokovic is the master at mixing locations on second serves, and has served more to his opponent’s forehand return versus body or serves to the backhand for the tournament.
Tsitsipas employs a traditional second serve strategy of serving mainly to the backhand jam location. He needs to be sitting on second serves to the forehand much more than normal and must have more variety with his own second serve location, as Djokovic has the best backhand return in the game.
In many ways, the final looks reasonably even on a statistics sheet. It’s not. Djokovic is a prohibitive favourite, and Tsitsipas must move out of his comfort zone and attack early and often in the point to cause the upset.
