While building a premiership team is football’s toughest act, deep-dive data gives club list management, recruiting staff and coaches a potential blueprint for success.
Champion Data research, given to The Age, has dissected the key statistics of the past 20 premiers, providing a guide for teams hoping to be in the so-called premiership window.
Jeremy Cameron and Patrick Dangerfield are hoping the Cats can defy age and claim back-to-back flags.Credit:Eddie Jim
Of the title teams over the past two decades, the average age is 26.2, and average games experience is 126.7, figures reinforced by the top-eight teams last season.
Among last year’s finalists, Geelong, now embarking on a premiership defence, had the oldest average age of 27.8, and the most average games (145.7). The Brisbane Lions were spot on in age (26.2), while their average games experience (110.6) was close to the average marker. Melbourne, the 2021 premiers, had an average age of 25.5, and 102.8 games. Sydney, now determined to rebound after last year’s grand final stage fright, were also in the wheelhouse, with an average age of 25.4, and 104.8 games.
Richmond, now eager to remain in contention with the off-season acquisitions of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, were not far off, with an average age of 26.8 and games (119.5). The Western Bulldogs were also in the mix with age (25.5). All are expected to again be serious finals aspirants.
Matt Rendell, the former Adelaide and Collingwood recruiter, said teams aimed to have lists that boasted what clubs dubbed “shared experiences”.
“They [clubs] love this term, shared experience. It’s having enough of your best team playing with each other for enough games. Clubs get to finals, they [coaches] understand how their players work, how to get them motivated, how to get them at their best, but that takes time. It takes some time,” Rendell said.
“But, if you can get a group coming through together, like Adelaide and North Melbourne are, who are back at square one, and one part way through it in Hawthorn, and Essendon, who are already in there somewhere – they are ahead of Hawthorn – it’s that shared experience over four or five years, six years even, that’s how you can build a list.
“Don’t forget, Geelong did this, way back in the 1999 draft and 2001 draft. They took a heap of players … by the time they got to 2007, they had five or six years of shared experience. I reckon eight or nine of them ended up played 300 games.”
Those drafts led to such figures as Cameron Ling, Jimmy Bartel, Joel Corey, James Kelly, Steve Johnson and Paul Chapman heading to what is now GMHBA Stadium. However, as one recruiter said this week, the Cats had to “hold their nerve” in 2006 when they considered sacking coach Mark Thompson. A flag came a year later.
Jump on board: Charlie Curnow and the Blues believe it’s time to produce a September breakthrough.Credit:Getty Images
As Rendell suggested, the Bombers, under new coach Brad Scott, still appear to be out of the premiership picture, having last year had an average age of 24.6 and games played of 74.4. The Hawks have made deep cuts, trading out veterans Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O’Meara and Jack Gunston, while captain Ben McEvoy retired.
Statistics, of course, can be bent to boost an argument. Obviously, in what is a young man’s sport in the AFL, there will not be teams with an average age of 30 or more in the modern, hard-running game.
Adelaide’s deep rebuild last year was shown in that they had the youngest average age (24) and matches (64.2). Their average games were almost less than half of the historical blueprint, reinforcing how far the Crows were off the challenging pack – for now. If you take junior sport as a guide, and use a two-year difference from under 12s to under 14s, the Crows can this year expect to take a leap in physical and mental capabilities.
For diehard Crows fans, they could take a look at Hawthorn of 2008, Collingwood of 2010, the Bulldogs of 2016, and Demons of ’21, where age was no barrier to a flag.
Emerging superstar Nick Daicos and his Magpies are in the right age and games bracket to challenge for a premiership.Credit:AFL Photos
The Bulldogs of ’16 were also an anomaly in other areas, and found the right formula in the year the AFL introduced the pre-finals bye, allowing a handful of prime movers to return from injury.
Demons football boss Alan Richardson, who began a rebuild as St Kilda coach in his time there, said there generally was a cycle to success.
“The player [initially] wants to get a game, he then wants to then become a really good player, and then you’ll end up getting quite a few that go from wanting to be a good player to wanting to be a premiership player,” Richardson said.
“That’s when they become so much more consistent. They have worked out pre-seasons, they have worked out their own bodies, they are five or six years in. I know every club, and I have worked at a few, are very much aware of the significance of profiling and how many games you have got to get into blokes.
“It’s always balanced with selection integrity. You don’t just want to get games into blokes just because they are 24, 25 and have to have played 70 games. If they haven’t earned it, you don’t want to compromise that. And they have to be good players. That is as important as anything. It’s one thing to have a 25-year-old who has played 70 games, they have got to have the ability to do whatever you want them to be able to do to win.”
Recruiters can turn to algorithms for assistance, combining ages with a cap of 200 games, to help decipher the demographics of their list.
Sceptics this season might also question West Coast’s profile this season. The Eagles still have an experienced list in terms of age and games played, but rival clubs are tipping a list in transition to finish bottom six.
As one rival list manager said: “If their best players can stay fit and on the park, they can challenge for the eight. If that’s not the case, they look as if they are going to be too young.”
Until all teams’ best 22, or 23 if you include the revised new sub rule, are confirmed, age and games profiles can be massaged, or change considerably, if injuries or form of elder statesmen become an issue.
Collingwood (25.9 age, 101.1 games last year) and Port Adelaide (25.7, 104.6 last year), in what now may be Ken Hinkley’s final year in charge, also remain in the sweet spot. The Magpies conjured a memorable nine wins by single digits last season, before falling just shy of a grand final. Will opponents have a better grasp of their system and ability to clear opposition presses this season?
Carlton’s supporters are desperate for a return to the glory years of the 1980s and ’90s, having endured much upheaval for two decades. The Blues, still inexperienced last year in terms of age (24.8) and matches (77.6), were in the top eight until the Sunday evening of round 23, but slipped out thanks to a final-quarter meltdown against the Magpies. The Blues haven’t been alive in September since 2013, but club insiders believe they are closing in on the premiership blueprint.
Again, this is where the statistics can also be misleading, for age and experience can be overcome by A-grade talent. The Blues boast a spine, including forwards Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, the envy of most teams, and that’s why they are expected to make the finals this season. The Hawks do not have such a luxury.
History also suggests premiership teams need to be in the top six for scoring, and top five for points against. The Cats were the ultimate side last year, ranking top in both categories. They were also elite in other areas, including scores per inside 50 and curbing opponents in their inside 50s. They were also fourth for stoppage differential.
Over the past two decades, only three premiers have finished outside the top six in scoring – the Tigers of 2017 (eighth), Bulldogs of ’16 (12th) and the Swans of 2005 (14th). But all three were defensively elite. The Tigers were the stingiest side in the competition, the Bulldogs were third for points against, while the Swans were second for points against.
Using 2022 as a guide, only the Cats, Swans and Demons were elite in scoring and defence. The Magpies were ninth for scoring, and eighth for points against. St Kilda, seeking a lift in Ross Lyon’s second go-round, were a respectable seventh for points against last season, but even with Max King up forward were 15th for scoring.
The Bulldogs were fifth for scoring and 11th for points against, but hope to rectify the latter by securing veteran Liam Jones. The freewheeling Bombers of ’21 were a rabble last year (13th for points for, 16th for points against), while the Blues were mid-table for points for, and elite (sixth) for points against, reinforcing the frustration of missing September. It was no surprise to see North Melbourne last in both categories, and the Eagles 17th.
The back-to-back Tigers of 2020 and ’21 were an anomaly in that they finished outside the top five for stoppage differential, but their game was more based on reclaiming possession in the first phase after a stoppage.
Overall, the Cats’ blueprint of last season is what all teams crave. Of six key statistical categories, the Cats were the only side elite in all, this being points for, scores per inside 50 percentage, points against, scores per inside 50 against, scores from turnover differential and scores from stoppage differential. The Demons and Swans were elite in five categories, but, again, statistics don’t show heart and street smarts.
The Pies were elite in only one category (scores per inside 50 against), yet fell just one point shy of featuring in the sport’s showpiece event. Gold Coast, despite major improvement under Stuart Dew and missing the top eight by only two games, Greater Western Sydney, Crows, Eagles, Saints and Kangaroos were not elite in any of the six categories.
As a new season dawns, one club recruiter was quick to point out a premiership cocktail requires more than just on-field talent, for the window rarely opens unless the right chief executive, football department boss, recruiters and coaches are in place.
Keep up to date with the best AFL coverage in the country. Sign up for the Real Footy newsletter.
