And to think, we just assumed he was looking through black and white lenses.
But perhaps we should’ve been listening to Collingwood great and ex-coach turned Fox Footy commentator Nathan Buckley when he made a bold call pre-season.
“Their best footy is going to be more than good enough to play finals,” he told Foxfooty.com.au. “Their best 22 is going to be super competitive.”
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“I think the morale is good, I know the quality of the individuals within there and how committed they are to one another. If they get an even run at it, playing finals will be the least of it.”
We wouldn’t say the Magpies had an even run; more an impossibly steep climb back up the ladder.
They are on the brink of smashing league records, already doing what seemed impossible by rising from 17th to a preliminary final, where they’ll face Sydney at the SCG on Saturday evening.
Regardless of how they did it – our view on performance in close games, and how unsustainable it can be, is well-documented – the fact is Collingwood has done it.
And they are inarguably good enough to win the flag, because anyone who makes the prelims – and is thus two wins away from glory – can win it.
So how did we get there, and how historic would a Magpies premiership be?
WHERE THEY WERE COMING FROM
Collingwood had never finished as low as 17th on the ladder (they’d won a wooden spoon, but in 16th) before a difficult 2021 season, which saw long-time coach Nathan Buckley depart and serious questions about their future.
But they were nowhere near as bad as your typical bottom-two team. Their percentage of 85.6% suggested they were closer to an eight-win team on true talent, and they went an AFL-worst 1-5 in close games, showing they were relatively unlucky.
Buckley’s comments above reflect the fact the core group which he took to a Grand Final was mostly intact.
Their list overall is not that old, but their best 22 is one of the more experienced in the league. In Round 23 for example, their squad was the fourth-oldest and had played the seventh-most career games on average.
So while 2021 was a clear dip, their ladder position exaggerated how far back they were coming from.
In the end this year, their percentage rose from 85.6% to 104.3% – Fremantle, Gold Coast, Richmond and Carlton all made bigger year-on-year leaps.
But the Magpies won 11 extra games, and thanks to their last-second win over Carlton in Round 23, leapt all the way from 17th into fourth and a qualifying final.
WHAT THEY’VE ALREADY DONE
No team had ever gone from 17th to the top four until Craig McRae led his side to a remarkable 2022 campaign.
Since the start of the 16-team era (1995), only four teams had risen from the bottom two to the top four – West Coast (2010-11), Brisbane (1998-99, both sides featuring McRae), Melbourne (1997-98) and the Western Bulldogs (1996-97).
No team had done it in the 18-team era until this year’s Magpies.
Biggest rises between seasons (Ladder positions)
13 – Collingwood 2021-22 (17th to 4th)
13 – Brisbane Lions 2018-19 (15th to 2nd)
13 – Brisbane Lions 1998-99 (16th to 3rd)
12 – Adelaide Crows 2011-12 (14th to 2nd)
12 – West Coast Eagles 2010-11 (16th to 4th)
12 – Melbourne 1997-98 (16th to 4th)
12 – Western Bulldogs 1996-97 (15th to 3rd)
11 – Six teams, most recent Essendon 2016-17 (18th to 7th)
10 – Eight teams, most recent Sydney Swans 2020-21 (16th to 6th)
All numbers via AFL Tables
This isn’t a brand new thing for Collingwood, either.
In VFL-AFL history there have been 21 teams that rose 10 or more ladder positions year-on-year.
Five of those were Collingwood sides, most notably the 1976-77 group which went from a wooden spoon to a drawn Grand Final (and a loss to North Melbourne in the replay).
The Collingwood climbers (Ladder positions gained)
13 – 2021-22 (17th to 4th)
11 – 1976-77 (12th to 1st)
10 – 2017-18 (13th to 3rd)
10 – 2005-06 (15th to 5th)
10 – 1987-88 (12th to 2nd)
All numbers via AFL Tables
That 2005-6 group has some similarities to this 2022 one, in that they were only a few years removed from a Grand Final appearance (two, in fact).
After the 2002 and 2003 Grand Final seasons, the Magpies dropped to 13th and 15th, before bouncing back strongly and playing finals for eight consecutive seasons.
Perhaps 2021 will prove to be a similar blip – as Nathan Buckley was telling us pre-season, when few were listening.
WHAT THEY CAN STILL DO
No team has ever won a premiership from 17th on the ladder the year before. In fact no-one has really come close.
The largest rise was Richmond, who famously went from 13th in 2016 to the 2017 premiership. (Collingwood was a Dom Sheed goal away from copying them a year later.)
Those Tigers were a similar story to this year’s Magpies. Damien Hardwick’s side hadn’t gotten as close to a flag, but losing three consecutive elimination finals exaggerated things – they’d twice finished one win outside of the top four.
The 2016 dip wasn’t as deep as the Magpies’ 2021 fall, but the 2017 climb was pretty sharp.
The next-best rise comes from Adelaide, who finished 12th in 1996 but then rose up into fourth in 1997 – and managed to win their first flag. (And then fell down the ladder the next year but won the flag again.)
Other than those two teams, every VFL-AFL premier at least finished in the top 10 the year before.
Rise of the premier (Previous year’s ladder position)
13th – Richmond 2016-17
12th – Adelaide 1996-97
10th – Geelong 2006-07
9th – Melbourne 2020-21
8th – West Coast 2017-18, Essendon 1992-93, Richmond 1979-80, Hawthorn 1970-71, Essendon 1945-46
All numbers via AFL Tables
Of course until 1985, the VFL only included 12 teams (or fewer). But in the entire history of the VFL-AFL, only nine of the 125 premiers have won it after finishing eighth or lower the year before.
That really puts into context what Collingwood has been able to do already, and what remains on the cards.
Even beating Sydney and making the Grand Final would be a historic aberration, placing us in uncharted territory.
But then, they ‘shouldn’t’ have done everything else they’ve done this year. So why not?
