The Bulldogs forwards will be giving away roughly five kilos on average to their Broncos opponent when they clash in Brisbane on Thursday night.
Brisbane have lost two in a row and this year they’ve struggled when they’ve been put under pressure.
They also haven’t performed in wet, slippery conditions, and there’s the forecast of rain in Brisbane. Suncorp’s been extra slippery this year too with a lot of traffic on the surface.
This all suits the Bulldogs; the way they play and the way their team has been built.
They’ve got a pack of lightweight middle forwards who are all incredibly mobile with quick lateral movement, especially in defence.
In attack, they’re very similar and use their footwork and speed to get in behind the markers for a quick play-the-ball.
Then, once they get those quick play-the-balls, they stay in that area and hammer the defence until they break.
Toby Sexton has emerged as a genuine running threat at halfback as a result, as has fullback Connor Tracey. Both of them back up that dominance of the ruck.
Canterbury pulled South Sydney apart on Good Friday and did the same to Cronulla a few weeks earlier.
Out of their middle men, Max King, Josh Curran, Kurt Mann and Jaeman Salmon, King is the top weight at 105 kilos, while Mann and Salmon are significantly less. So they bring footwork, toughness and a very simple style by playing through the middle.
Curran’s opening try against the Rabbitohs was a classic example of ball runners being turned back under, like Penrith have done for years, to target a defender and keep the forwards moving.
Jai Arrow was dragged 20 metres to the left of his usual defensive spot, and two tackles later Curran was stepping inside him to score.
With the weight of possession, the Bulldogs kept hammering in behind the Rabbitohs ruck, and eventually overwhelmed them.
With just nine set restarts all season (the least in the NRL), Canterbury are incredibly disciplined under Cameron Ciraldo and play kick reception footy without giving their opposition a penalty or a leg-up coming out of trouble.
In Gus they trust
It all suits the club that Phil Gould has helped rebuild from the ground up.
Gus was a good player in his day, and an amazing coach. He’s still the best coach in NSW history and won a grand final in his first year of coaching with the Bulldogs almost 40 years ago.
He’s now a great administrator and polarising commentator (which is exactly what’s needed in his role on the mic) and one of the most influential figures in rugby league history.
Gus knows what winning looks like and the character traits you need in a player and a coach.
There’s no surprise that he went after Ciraldo, having seen what he could do and how he contributed to Penrith’s success.
Phil Gould during his playing – and kicking – days for Canterbury in 1985.Credit: Paul Mathews
Than add some of those other influential Panthers figures, such as Matt Burton, Viliame Kikau and especially Stephen Crichton. To hear Gus talk about him as a captain, the influence he has on that team is unbelievable.
In Gus they trust.
It’s not the size of the Dog in the fight
The Broncos need to learn how to win ugly, how to grind and scrap for everything. At the moment, they just don’t, and they’re not winning those tight games.
Payne Haas is the best front-rower in the world, and could be the best in the history of the game by the time he finishes.
Haas needs more support from his halves when he’s getting into one-on-one tackles, and then the fullback – Selwyn Cobbo at the moment and Reece Walsh when he’s fit again – needs to be chiming in as their second wave of attack.
No Walsh is a huge blow for the Broncos, and they’ll need to adjust their game with Cobbo playing fullback.
This game will be an arm wrestle, and for Brisbane to stay in it, they should be attacking out of dummy half with lots of support through the middle.
Ben Hunt will want to bounce back from a really poor game against the Warriors. Often when he got the ball he looked to be in two minds – run or pass.
Hunt is also a right-side dominant player, but he’s playing on the left this year with Adam Reynolds there, so he’s lost one of his favourite plays. On the right, he loves to dummy, step off his right foot and duck into the backfield, but he can’t pull that one out on the left.
Haas, Pat Carrigan and Xavier Willison against the Bulldogs pack is such a contrast in size and style, with totally different body shapes in the middle presenting different games.
In all, Brisbane’s eight forwards (excluding hookers and utilities) for this match tip the scales at a combined 849kgs (averaging 106.12) against Canterbury’s 812kg (101.5). The disparity was eight kilos wider until Brisbane’s Jordan Riki was ruled out due to an infection and replaced by Tyson Smoothy.
I’m predicting a low-scoring, tough, grinding game. Both teams should be looking for high completions, long kicks and to tackle their way to victory. That style suits the Dogs best, though.
It’s also a huge game for Canterbury hooker Reed Mahoney with Harry Grant’s hamstring injury putting him in doubt for Origin I. A big game from Mahoney at Suncorp Stadium, in front of a big crowd there, could be huge for him.
Joey’s tip: Bulldogs by six.
First try-scorer: Marcelo Montoya.
Man of the match: Connor Tracey.
11 v 11: Has Wok predicted league’s future?
The Eels win over the Tigers on Easter Monday was the most enjoyable game of the year so far for me. It was non-stop, fast, attacking footy and that’s what rugby league needs – we’re in the entertainment industry after all.
The Entertainers: Parramatta returned to the winner’s circle in fine fashion against the Tigers.Credit: Getty Images
Moses – Mitchell, not Isaac – was incredible in his first game back from injury. He was just the dominant voice and presence, and genuine on-the-ball No.7, that Parramatta desperately needed. Put simply, it was a masterclass from him.
His kick late in the game for Bailey Simonsson to score on play zero had me off the lounge and on my feet cheering at home.
There was also a stage in that match when it was 11 v 12, with three players in the sin bin.
Now I talk to Warren Ryan constantly about footy and rule changes, and his argument is that every five to 10 years, players get bigger, faster, stronger and fitter.
But since 1908 the field dimensions have stayed the same, and they can’t get any bigger now.
So “Wok” thinks that an ideal number eventually for modern rugby league is 11 players on each side, which would mean more space, bigger gaps in the defensive line and more attack.
For a few minutes on Monday we might have had a glimpse of the future, and I’ve got to say, it was pretty enjoyable.
Remember, we are in the entertainment business after all.
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Michael Chammas and Andrew “Joey” Johns dissect the upcoming NRL round, plus the latest footy news, results and analysis. Sign up for the Sin Bin newsletter.
