The first of Melbourne’s big three races – the $5 million Caulfield Cup – will be run and won at Caulfield on Saturday.
The Age’s form analyst Tim Habel and racing writer Danny Russell have combed through the programme to bring you their best bets, as well as dissecting the Caulfield Cup…
Buckaroo tunes up for the Caulfield Cup on Tuesday morning.Credit: Getty Images
Caulfield Cup day
First race: 12.15pm
Caulfield Cup: 5.15pm
TRACK: Good 4 on Friday morning. RAIL: Out 3 metres. PATTERN: The rail was true last Saturday when on-pace runners had an edge, which is historically the case at Caulfield. Out 12m Wednesday, back to 3m is a move successfully deployed in recent years. The forecast rain will have a big bearing on how the track races – if the track gets into the slow category they will be running on as the day progresses.
WEATHER: Friday – a top of 24 degreeswith up to 35mm of rain. Saturday – a top of 18 degrees with a morning shower or two.
Race 9: $5m Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m), 5.15pm
The favourite: All roads lead to Buckaroo. He has won a recent group 1 at weight-for-age – the Underwood Stakes – he finished second in the Turnbull Stakes and drops to 54.5kg. He can handle a wet track, and he can take a sit from barrier 8. The one chink in his armour might be that he has not won at 2400m. But it looks like he is a better horse this preparation after being gelded.
Tim Clark and Eliyass win the Lord Mayor’s Cup in Sydney in June.Credit: Getty Images
The threats: Barriers and race tempo will play a big part in the chances of Eliyass (53kg), Land Legend (53kg) and Deny Knowledge (50.5kg). If frontrunners Deny Knowledge and Eliyass can get to the lead from wide barriers without spending too many petrol tickets, they can win. Land Legend’s problem is the inside barrier, meaning he might be caught back on the rail when the race turns for home. If he gets out under Zac Purton, he might be too good, coming off an impressive Metropolitan win. But the rain is a concern. Zardozi ran Land Legend to a neck in the group 1 Metropolitan, drops to 51kg and has been super on wet tracks. Sayedaty Sadaty (50kg) is a 15-1 shot, but he brings European form that might exceed our standards.
The roughies: Young Werther is a consistent group 1 placegetter, Duke De Sassa is a former international, who has drawn well and has form behind Buckaroo, while Japanese runner Warp Seed is a horse on the rise but might be looking for 3200m and won’t enjoy a wet track. Warmonger won the Queensland Derby on a heavy track by 10 lengths but has looked a touch dour this campaign, Circle Of Fire romped in a Sydney Cup and is trained by Ciaron Maher, but might be a Melbourne Cup horse, and it might be 12 months too early for Coco Sun and Positivity.
Tim Habel
Caulfield Cup tips: 1st Sayedaty Sadaty (No.18), 2nd Buckaroo (No.2), 3rd Zardozi (No.13)
Habel says: This is a modest edition of the Cup so looking for the best international form. Sayedaty Sadaty has been competitive behind world’s best colt City Of Troy and Melbourne Cup favourite Jan Brueghel.
Habel’s best: Isthmus (Race 5, No.8) – Isthmus is delivering on her early promise. Makes her own luck on pace.
Habel’s next best: Geegees Mistruth (Race 6, No.3) – most unlucky at Moonee Valley and winner Bellatrix Star downed the older sprinters in group class last week so form line outstanding.
Habel’s roughie: Ripcord (Race 10, No.8) – A WA galloper all at sea down the straight for the first time, and on wet ground resuming, but made late ground. Has a big finish, suited out to 1400m.
Danny Russell
Caulfield Cup tips: 1st Buckaroo (No.2), 2nd Land Legend (No.8), 3rd Eliyass (No.15), 4th Deny Knowledge (No.7)
Russell says: The blueprint to winning Australian staying races seems to be having a quality import trained in this country for 12 months. Buckaroo, Land Legend and Eliyass all fit the bill.
Caulfield Cup trifecta play: 2, 7, 8, 15 – 2, 7, 8, 13, 15, 18 – 2, 7, 8, 13, 15, 18
Russell’s best: Reserve Bank (Race 2, No.6) – Beaten a whisker in the Danehill by stablemate First Settler. That’s good enough to win this.
Russell’s next best: Plenty Of Ammo (Race 8, No.14) – speaking through the pocket, but should have won last start. A late-blooming star.
Cup day quaddie: 1st leg: 1, 5, 6, 8; 2nd leg: 1, 14; 3rd leg: 2, 7, 8, 15; 4th leg: 1, 2, 10, 17.
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