The harsh truth about Australian rugby

The end of the regular season means it’s time for some uncomfortable truths. Despite the perceived performance benefits of cutting the Rebels, the four remaining Australian sides have actually won fewer games against the Kiwis this year. They have won seven this year compared to nine last year, with the discrepancy explained by both the Reds and Brumbies flipping from a 3-2 trans-Tasman winning record in 2024 to a 2-3 losing one. While the early-season narrative was one of Australian improvement, it quietly flipped about two-thirds of the way through the competition, and the last win against a New Zealand team was the Reds’ victory against the Blues in round 11. It’s an obvious concern on the eve of the British and Lions series.

Two-tier Super has a problem

The win-loss record outline above is part of a much broader problem. The top six finishers this year are effectively the same top six teams from the past four years of Super Rugby Pacific. In fact, in the competition’s history (beginning in 2022) only eight teams have finished in the top six, the Waratahs sneaking in twice (6th in 2023 and 6th in 2022) and the Highlanders sneaking in once (6th in 2024). It’s a competition with bedded-in haves and have-nots, as the points differential from this year highlights again. The big six all have positive points differentials, and the rest have deeply negative ones, with the Highlanders the ‘best’ at minus 90. This is one reason why this column has been sympathetic towards Dan McKellar at the Waratahs this year. He’s walked into a job in the current have-nots, and Super Rugby’s lack of player movement makes upward mobility very hard to achieve.

The Brumbies’ missing drop goal

There were six minutes left when Crusaders winger Sevu Reece knocked the ball on against the Brumbies on Saturday – that’s a lot of rugby left in such a seesawing game. While the failure to spot the knock-on was clearly a mistake, it’s an exaggeration to say it decided the game. Even if we enter the alternative universe of the knock-on being spotted, the Brumbies would have a defensive scrum with five-plus minutes to run down – the Crusaders would get another crack at winning the game. A bigger factor in the outcome was the Brumbies’ aversion to the drop goal option in the final seconds, despite being in the perfect position – about 15m out, in the centre of the field, with front-foot ball. Noah Lolesio had to go back into the pocket and call the drop-goal.

Suaalii v Tuipulotu is on

Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii’s scheduled return from his jaw injury is encouraging news, and his old mate Sione Tuipulotu is very much getting ready for their much-anticipated reunion during the Lions series. Tuipulotu was excellent for Glasgow against the Stormers in a URC quarter final over the weekend, making one outstanding second-half break. He showed no signs of the pectoral muscle injury that cast a cloud over his Lions participation earlier in the year. He must be a strong contender to start the first test in the Lions No 12 jersey, especially if Scotland’s Finn Russell is the No 10.