The Panthers are on the cusp of history, but keeping their “$15 million” squad together could prove tougher than winning a second straight grand final on Sunday.
Penrith are contesting their third straight decider and trying to become just the second club in NRL history to win-back-to-back premierships.
But success comes at a cost and their salary cap squeeze is only getting tighter, with Viliame Kikau (Bulldogs) and Api Koroisau (Tigers) both departing after the grand final.
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Stephen Crichton, Liam Martin, Brian To’o, Scott Sorensen and Spencer Leniu can all start negotiating with rival clubs for the 2024 season from November 1.
Panthers icon Scott Sattler told foxsports.com.au the salary cap will “serve its purpose” and he tipped more stars to leave the club next season.
But is it a problem Penrith can overcome thanks to their conveyor belt of junior talent?
Local juniors make up more than half the side facing the Parramatta Eels on Sunday as the Panthers attempt to become the first club in history to win all four grades.
“If they do win this week, they become one of the great teams,” Braith Anasta said.
“However, the more success the more you pay the price with the salary cap – but they’ve done an amazing job to turn it into a powerhouse.”
Here foxsports.com.au breaks down the value of the Panthers squad and the salary cap pressures which winning creates.
THE PROBLEM
Bulldogs general manager Phil Gould accused the Titans of creating a “false economy” in the player market by paying backrower David Fifta $1.25 million per season.
Gould called the decision “reckless” and emphasised it had ramifications for clubs across the NRL as player managers inflated their client’s price tags.
The former Panthers general manager had no issues with Fifita taking the money but said the contract had been detrimental to the game.
Fifita has failed to live up the billing and Sattler agreed the controversial deal disrupted the entire player market.
“Gus hit the nail on the head… that David Fifita signing sent the market into a spiral,” Sattler told foxsports.com.au.
“We started comparing players, especially in forwards positions to what David signed on at the Gold Coast Titans so it made a false economy.
“The salary cap will do what it was intended to do. You’ll have players who want to stay together and others who chase bigger contracts at clubs which have the space.
“On the open market a lot of them are worth a lot more than they’re going to be on at the Penrith Panthers.
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“The end result is the decision they have to make on whether they want to continue to play finals or whether they want to go and help build a club”.
Gould famously set up the Panthers pathways which is currently paying dividends, with almost half their first-grade side coming through the system together.
Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai boast an incredible 93 per cent win record together as the most successful halves pairing since 1980.
“Why I’m so big on development is because you’ve always got to have those younger blokes coming through. And the system is you’re pushing guys out at the top and bringing in younger players at greater value,” Gould said on his podcast Six Tackles with Gus.
“At the start of the year I do an exercise. I go through and list every club’s roster and say well they’re all spending the $9.5 million salary cap.
“Then I go through each individual player and say if I sold that player at market value today, what would I get? Penrith I might get $15 million for all those players.
“But when I go down to the bottom of the ladder I might get $5.5 million.
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“Everyone is spending the same amount of money but it’s about what your cap is actually worth at this time at market value.
“That’s the true difference and that’s what’s reflected in the premiership table, that’s what’s reflected in our results.
“If you went out and put every Penrith Panthers player on the market today… and just let everyone openly bid for them – what do you think they’re worth? They’re worth a hell of a lot more than $9.5 million.”
THE SOLUTION
Sattler believes players – and their managers – are more money hungry than ever but said there are ways to counter cash.
Sattler won a premiership with the Panthers in 2003 after making one of the most famous grand final tackles in rugby league history.
The former Maroons forward played 202 first-grade games and believes the strongest clubs are ones with the best “salesmen”.
“You don’t need to lose some, you just have to be able to convince players that playing at your club is going to be better for their careers,” Sattler said.
“That it’s going to be better for them to play representative rugby league and finals footy, and to be around great players that make you a better player, like Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo and James Fisher-Harris for example.
“Is that going to be better for your career or is it going to be better to go and try and build a club from the ground up?
“To be a list manager or a recruitment manager and general manager of rugby league, you’ve got to be a really good sales person.
“So you don’t have to lose them, you just have to sell them what the future of the club is going to look like and whether you want to be part of it.”
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Panthers forward Mitch Kenny told foxsports.com.au there are plenty of players in the squad willing to make financial sacrifices to stick together.
“The club is in a position now, where guys recognise what we have here and want to stay together,” Kenny said to
“It speaks to how tight-knit the group is as well, a lot of these local guys, who probably want to repay the club as well for developing them and making them the first graders they are today.
“It would take a bit for a lot of these guys to leave because they are the players they are because of the teammates they have and the coaches they have.
“They don’t want to be rushing away from here and it is a great culture, and everyone wants to be a part of it for as long as they can.”
THE SQUEEZE HAS STARTED
The Panthers have lost five regular first-graders over the past two seasons and club chief executive Brian Fletcher admits the trend will continue.
Fletcher has conceded they’ll have to lose two stars a season at their current rate of success, which is showing no signs of slowing down.
Penrith are one of the best sides of the NRL era having won 66 of 78 games over the past three years.
Matt Burton (Bulldogs), Kurt Capewell (Broncos) and Paul Momirovski (Panthers) all left at the end of last season.
The success this season has squeezed out Kikau and Koroisau alongside fringe first-graders J’maine Hopgood (Eels) and Isaiya Katoa, Robert Jennings and Sean O’Sullivan, who will all join Wayne Bennett’s Dolphins.
Sattler believes allowing Kikau to leave was like if Penrith had let his premiership-winning teammate Tony Puletua walk back in 2003.
“Viliame is a massive loss,” Sattler said.
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“If we lost Tony Puletua, we become a less competitive side and I think Viliame and Tony have very like-minded attributes.
“In hindsight, the Melbourne Storm got young Eliesa Katoa from the Warriors and he would have been a perfect replacement for Viliame, same sort of player, same sort of athlete.”
Sattler wasn’t as concerned about Koroisau’s replacement but said the Blues hooker will still leave a huge hole in the squad.
“I’m a big fan of Soni Luke, the hooker coming through, and he’s been around a while, he’s not a first-year,” Sattler said.
“And that probably works in the Panthers favour, mature age and has played a fair bit of lower grades and come back from adversity.
“So in Api’s case I don’t think they can replace him immediately but they can fill a hole with some capable players.”
WHO LEAVES NEXT?
If they win on Sunday, Penrith’s premiership celebrations will barely have ended before a host of their stars can start talking to rival clubs.
Stephen Crichton, Liam Martin, Brian To’o, Scott Sorensen and Spencer Leniu can all accept offers on November 1 for the 2024 season.
All five will line up in the grand final and all five will attract offers if they’re not locked down by the Panthers over the next month.
“The culture, it is a very special place to be,” Sorensen told foxsports.com.au.
“It is a special time and just being present right now, those things will sort themselves out.”
Sattler believes the lure of a positional switch that attracts more cash could leave the premiers with their hands tied.
“There are guys playing in a position that would rather be playing in another position because they think it’s worth more in the market,” Sattler said.
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“Crichton for example who is playing in the centres, many argue he’d be a great fullback and many think he’s a winger, but where does Stephen Crichton see himself?
“If Stephen Crichton sees himself as a fullback moving forward, well he’ll put himself into the market as a fullback for a club that’s willing to pay it because Dylan Edwards is going nowhere.
“I still think the hooker is one of the most important positions on the field, you’ve got to have a threat out of dummyhalf before you expose the threats out wide.”
Sattler then went where very few people go on the record in rugby league, and blamed player managers for the power they wield in the game.
“The managers don’t help either, they make the players believe (they’re worth more money),” he said.
“I think the mindset of the athlete has changed as well, it really is about getting as much money as humanly possible in a short period of time.
“That’s always been the case because careers are so short, if you get through to 30-31 years of age you’ve done all right.
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“I think the mindset of the player and the player manager has changed a fair bit over the last decade.
“It probably started to change in Super League but probably more so over the past 10 or 15 years it has really changed where some players will take money over success and then realise it’s really harmed their career.”
THE ACE UP THEIR SLEEVES
The Panthers are $1.35 favourites on Sunday night to become the first club in history to win all four grades.
Penrith have already won the SG Ball, Jersey Flegg and NSW Cup competitions this season and sit on the cusp of the first clean sweep in rugby league’s 113-year history.
The success speaks to the club’s incredible depth, but Sattler warned the jump to the NRL is one that very few players make successfully.
“It’s good and on face value it’s great but there’s a difference between being good at junior reps and actually being NRL ready,” Sattler said.
“A very small percentage of players end up being converted into 80 or 100-game NRL players.
“It comes down to work ethic and attitude and elite coaching and they’ve proven at Penrith they’ve got elite coaching all through their junior reps and they’ve built a really good platform for those young players to continue through to the NRL.
“But there is a huge jump and a huge drop off rate after Harold Matthews and SG Ball age group.
“Being able to nurse those players through is really important for clubs and they do it better than most, but you can’t replace superstars straight away.”
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