9:05 AM ET
At first glance, things haven’t changed all that much since soccer’s post-World Cup restart a month or so ago.
Arsenal and Manchester City have averaged more than two points per game in Premier League play, just as they did before the break. Barcelona have dropped only two points and extended their LaLiga lead. Napoli have continued to roll in Italy , and Bayern Munich have yet to lose a match and remain a heavy Bundesliga favorite (82% chance, per FiveThirtyEight ).
But Bayern also haven’t won a league match, and Barcelona’s xG numbers hint at serious problems. And Brentford have been Arsenal’s equal. And PSG have been mostly sleepwalking. And Monza and Clermont Foot have been among the best in Italy and France .
Compared to expectations, there have been plenty of strange shifts in recent weeks. It’s almost as if pausing the club season for a month-long international tournament in Qatar was disruptive or something!
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Small sample sizes apply, and regression to the mean will settle in for some teams soon enough, but a lot of odds and statuses have changed since play resumed. Within Europe’s big five leagues, let’s look at who’s overachieving, who’s underachieving, and who needs to really get their act together before continental play starts again.
English Premier League Since the restart… TEAM MATCHES POINTS PTS VS PROJ* (RK) XG VS PROJ** (RK) Arsenal 5 13 0.8 (4) 0.4 (5) Brentford 5 11 1.0 (1) 0.7 (1) Manchester City 6 13 -0.1 (10) 0.3 (6) Manchester United 6 13 0.4 (8) 0.2 (8) Fulham 6 12 0.9 (2) 0.5 (4) Brighton and Hove Albion 5 10 0.5 (6) -0.3 (13) Aston Villa 7 14 0.8 (3) 0.1 (9) Newcastle 5 9 0.0 (9) 0.7 (2) Nottingham Forest 5 8 0.7 (5) 0.6 (3) Liverpool 5 7 -0.6 (15) -0.7 (20) Wolverhampton 5 7 0.5 (7) -0.3 (14) Chelsea 6 8 -0.3 (12) 0.3 (7) Tottenham Hotspur 6 7 -0.3 (13) -0.5 (18) Crystal Palace 6 5 -0.3 (11) -0.5 (19) West Ham United 5 4 -0.6 (16) 0.1 (10) Southampton 5 3 -0.7 (18) -0.1 (12) Leeds United 5 3 -0.4 (14) -0.1 (11) Leicester City 5 1 -1.0 (20) -0.4 (17) Everton 5 1 -0.8 (19) -0.3 (16) AFC Bournemouth 5 1 -0.7 (17) -0.3 (15)
* Pts vs. Proj.: A comparison of the points teams have earned vs. the average points they were expected to earn via FiveThirtyEight’s SPI projections . For instance, projections suggested Brentford should have earned an average of 6.2 points from their past five league matches against Tottenham Hotspur (28% of a win, 22% chance draw), West Ham (27% win, 25% draw), Liverpool (20% win, 19% draw), Bournemouth (58% win, 22% draw) and Leeds United (37% win, 23% draw). Instead, they took 11 points, an overachievement of 4.8 points, or 1.0 per match.
** xG vs. Proj.: Same as above, only comparing each team’s expected goals, or xG, differential vs. its projected goal differential. (Why xG instead of actual goals? Because with such a small sample size, that would be looking as much at who’s been fortunate/unfortunate instead of who’s been good/bad. Expected goals are a measure of how many likely scoring opportunities teams create, but finishing is more subject to luck.)
Steady as she goes for Arsenal Arsenal held a five-point advantage over Manchester City before the World Cup, but FiveThirtyEight projections suggested that City still held a 53% chance of winning the Premier League to Arsenal’s 36%. But despite losing forward Gabriel Jesus to World Cup injury, the Gunners have dropped only two points (via 0-0 draw with Newcastle) since the break. They’ve scored 10 goals in four wins, and took down both Spurs and Manchester United in their past two league games. Current title odds? Arsenal 63%, City 34%.
Spanish LaLigaSince the restart… TEAM MATCHES POINTS PTS VS PROJ XG VS PROJ Real Sociedad 5 13 1.2 (1) 0.6 (4) Barcelona 5 13 0.5 (3) -0.9 (20) Atletico Madrid 5 10 0.2 (7) 0.9 (1) Villarreal 5 10 0.4 (4) 0.0 (10) Sevilla FC 5 10 0.4 (5) -0.1 (12) Real Madrid 4 7 -0.1 (13) -0.3 (15) Celta Vigo 5 8 0.2 (9) 0.9 (2) Cadiz 5 8 0.3 (6) 0.1 (5) Espanyol 5 8 0.5 (2) -0.1 (13) Rayo Vallecano 5 7 0.2 (10) 0.1 (7) Real Betis 5 7 0.2 (8) 0.0 (11) Almeria 5 6 0.1 (11) 0.0 (9) Mallorca 5 6 -0.1 (12) -0.3 (16) Girona FC 5 5 -0.1 (14) 0.6 (3) Osasuna 5 5 -0.3 (15) -0.5 (17) Getafe 5 3 -0.6 (18) 0.1 (8) Real Valladolid 5 3 -0.3 (16) -0.7 (19) Athletic Bilbao 5 2 -1.0 (19) -0.2 (14) Elche 5 2 -0.4 (17) 0.1 (6) Valencia 4 1 -1.4 (20) -0.5 (18)
Barcelona’s doing well… and also poorly? Barcelona led Real Madrid by two points in the LaLiga race when play halted in November. That lead is eight points today. Real Madrid have played one fewer game, but per FiveThirtyEight , Barca’s title odds have improved from 67% to 74% since the restart.
After a draw with Espanyol , the Blaugrana took out Atletico Madrid , Getafe and Girona by matching 1-0 scores, then topped Real Betis 2-1 on Wednesday. They also won the Spanish Super Cup with a 3-1 win over Real Madrid, and advanced to the semifinals of the Copa del Rey (with help from another 1-0 win), where they’ll play the Blancos yet again. In all, they haven’t lost since Oct. 26’s 3-0 Champions League defeat against Bayern Munich.
With Real Madrid underachieving a bit, this was just about a perfect month for Barca in terms of results, buta glance at the xG numbers in the table above is a bit foreboding. In the trio of 1-0 league wins, only one of which was against a team in the top half of the LaLiga table, they generated a combined 2.5 xG from 26 total shots while allowing 4.0 xG from 35 shots. Barcelona’s attack has underwhelmed, and the defense has been a bit too reliant on errant shooting and strong play from goalkeeper Marc Andre ter Stegen.
The win over Betis was a sure step in the right direction — total xG: Barca 1.9, Betis 0.6 — but the schedule gets much tougher continuing into February with a trip to Villarreal and an improving Sevilla — and, of course, a Europa League home-and-home against Manchester United — meaning Barca must remain in a higher gear.
Real Sociedad’s probably going back to the Champions League La Real have made a habit of starting well before succumbing to a midseason funk. They took 23 points from their first 10 matches in 2020-21 and 29 from 14 in 2021-22, but finished well outside the top four in both seasons.
Since the restart… TEAM MATCHES POINTS PTS VS PROJ XG VS PROJ Napoli 5 12 0.4 (3) 0.0 (9) Atalanta 5 11 0.3 (6) -0.2 (15) AS Roma 5 10 0.4 (4) 0.6 (3) Internazionale 5 10 -0.1 (11) -0.6 (18) Monza 5 9 0.8 (2) 0.8 (1) Empoli 5 9 0.9 (1) 0.3 (7) Lazio 5 8 -0.1 (10) 0.3 (4) Verona 5 8 0.4 (5) 0.1 (8) Juventus 5 7 -0.2 (13) 0.3 (6) Bologna 5 7 0.2 (7) -0.1 (12) Torino 5 6 -0.3 (15) 0.0 (10) Lecce 5 5 -0.1 (12) 0.7 (2) Udinese 5 5 -0.6 (18) 0.0 (11) Fiorentina 5 5 -0.5 (17) -0.2 (16) AC Milan 5 5 -0.9 (20) -1.0 (20) Spezia 5 5 0.0 (9) -0.1 (13) Sassuolo 5 4 -0.4 (16) 0.3 (5) Salernitana 5 4 0.1 (8) -0.7 (19) Sampdoria 5 3 -0.3 (14) -0.2 (14) Cremonese 5 1 -0.8 (19) -0.3 (17)
That’s probably going to change. Coach Imanol Alguacil’s squad had lost to Real Valladolid and Real Betis before the break, but they’ve taken 13 of 15 possible points since the restart. All four of Real Sociedad ‘s wins came by multiple goals, and their lone draw, 0-0 at Real Madrid, was perhaps more encouraging than the wins.
Their Champions League odds, per FiveThirtyEight, were at 36% at the break, but are at 76% now. A funk remains possible, but they’ve banked a healthy number of points. You could make a strong case that, despite Barca’s matching 1-0 wins over both, Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid have been the best teams in Spain in recent weeks, and they could take a lot of the drama out of the top-four race if they keep playing like this.
Valencia are determined to get sucked into a relegation fight In midfielders Yunus Musah and Andre Almeida , goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili , winger Samuel Lino , full-back Thierry Correia and others, Valencia boast an intriguing collection of 23-and-under talent. A 3-0 win over Real Betis brought them into the top half of the table at the break, too. It seemed they could be an exciting team to follow over the second half of the season.
A month after the restart, they’re in 16th place, just one point above the relegation zone with a game in hand. They’ve lost three of four league matches and got thumped 3-1 at home by a similarly out-of-form Athletic Club in the Copa del Rey.
They’ve gone from “intriguing team?” to interim coach, having fired Gennaro Gattuso on Tuesday. They probably aren’t relegation-threatened just yet — FiveThirtyEight gives them just a 9% chance of going down — but just as Real Sociedad are banking points, Valencia are leaking them and creating a difficult situation for said young roster to handle.
German Bundesliga Since the restart… TEAM MATCHES POINTS PTS VS PROJ XG VS PROJ Union Berlin 3 9 1.5 (1) 0.5 (3) Borussia Dortmund 3 9 1.3 (2) -0.3 (13) RB Leipzig 3 7 0.6 (3) 0.4 (5) Wolfsburg 3 6 0.4 (5) 0.8 (1) Bayer Leverkusen 3 6 0.4 (6) 0.3 (8) Koln 3 5 0.5 (4) 0.8 (2) Eintracht Frankfurt 3 5 0.4 (7) -0.9 (16) Mainz 3 4 -0.1 (10) 0.1 (10) Freiburg 3 4 -0.3 (12) -0.5 (15) Bayern Munich 3 3 -1.3 (17) -1.1 (18) Borussia M’gladbach 3 3 -0.3 (13) -0.2 (12) Augsburg 3 3 0.1 (8) 0.5 (4) Bochum 3 3 0.0 (9) 0.1 (9) Werder Bremen 3 3 -0.1 (11) -0.3 (14) Stuttgart 3 2 -0.4 (14) 0.4 (6) Hoffenheim 3 1 -1.1 (16) -0.1 (11) Schalke 04 3 1 -0.5 (15) 0.4 (7) Hertha Berlin 3 0 -1.3 (18) -1.1 (17)
Bayern have two weeks to turn it on Barcelona aren’t the only team to have misplaced its attack over the extended holiday.
After a bumpy September run that saw them win just once in six league matches, it looked as if Bayern had once again established themselves as the Bundesliga’s ruler. The 10-time defending champs won 10 in a row in all competitions and took a six-point lead into the break. But after a trio of 1-1 draws, the champs now have to fend off a quintet of teams within five points, including RB Leipzig (two points back) and Borussia Dortmund (three).
Italian Serie ASince the restart… TEAM MATCHES POINTS PTS VS PROJ XG VS PROJ Napoli 5 12 0.4 (3) 0.0 (9) Atalanta 5 11 0.3 (6) -0.2 (15) AS Roma 5 10 0.4 (4) 0.6 (3) Internazionale 5 10 -0.1 (11) -0.6 (18) Monza 5 9 0.8 (2) 0.8 (1) Empoli 5 9 0.9 (1) 0.3 (7) Lazio 5 8 -0.1 (10) 0.3 (4) Verona 5 8 0.4 (5) 0.1 (8) Juventus 5 7 -0.2 (13) 0.3 (6) Bologna 5 7 0.2 (7) -0.1 (12) Torino 5 6 -0.3 (15) 0.0 (10) Lecce 5 5 -0.1 (12) 0.7 (2) Udinese 5 5 -0.6 (18) 0.0 (11) Fiorentina 5 5 -0.5 (17) -0.2 (16) AC Milan 5 5 -0.9 (20) -1.0 (20) Spezia 5 5 0.0 (9) -0.1 (13) Sassuolo 5 4 -0.4 (16) 0.3 (5) Salernitana 5 4 0.1 (8) -0.7 (19) Sampdoria 5 3 -0.3 (14) -0.2 (14) Cremonese 5 1 -0.8 (19) -0.3 (17)
Bad and worse in Milan The biggest story in Italy in recent weeks has been the fallout from Juventus ‘ latest scandal, which has resulted in what is currently a 15-point deduction and a plummet from second place to 13th. That has distracted a bit from the regression of two other heavyweights, both in Milan.
After beating Napoli to start the new year, Inter Milan lost to Empoli at home and drew with Monza. They’ve at least maintained a decent overall pace despite lackluster xG figures and those two results, and they have far less to be worried about than their derby rivals, who have completely fallen apart.
Since the restart… TEAM MATCHES POINTS PTS VS PROJ XG VS PROJ Marseille 6 16 0.6 (5) -0.1 (12) AS Monaco 6 14 0.5 (6) -0.1 (11) Toulouse 6 13 0.9 (2) 0.9 (2) Reims 6 12 0.9 (1) 0.6 (3) Clermont Foot 6 11 0.9 (3) 1.0 (1) Nice 6 11 0.7 (4) 0.6 (4) Paris Saint-Germain 6 10 -0.6 (18) -0.3 (14) Lille 6 9 -0.4 (15) 0.4 (5) Stade Rennes 6 9 -0.2 (12) 0.0 (9) Lens 6 9 -0.2 (13) -0.1 (13) Nantes 6 9 0.3 (7) 0.4 (6) Lyon 6 8 -0.5 (17) 0.0 (10) Lorient 6 7 0.2 (8) -0.7 (19) AC Ajaccio 6 6 -0.2 (14) -0.6 (17) Brest 6 6 -0.1 (10) -0.3 (15) Montpellier 6 6 0.0 (9) -0.6 (18) Troyes 6 5 -0.1 (11) -1.1 (20) Strasbourg 6 4 -0.5 (16) -0.4 (16) Angers 6 0 -1.2 (20) 0.1 (8) Auxerre 6 0 -0.9 (19) 0.4 (7)
In the past three weeks, AC Milan have played five matches and secured one point, coming back from 2-0 down to draw with 16th-place Lecce . Otherwise they’ve lost at home to Torino (in the Coppa Italia) and Sassuolo , lost at Lecce and Lazio , gotten pummeled by Inter in the Supercoppa Italiana and been outscored by a combined 13-2.
Thanks to Juve’s penalty, AC Milan’s odds of reaching the Champions League have fallen only from 77% to 55% per 538. But the wheels have come off, and their Champions League round-of-16 tie against Tottenham Hotspur is 12 days away.
Napoli are going to do this Inter’s form could rebound soon enough (and might have already begun to), but between Inter’s glitches and Juve’s penalty, Napoli now own a 13-point lead in the race for their first Scudetto since 1990. Their title odds were 68% at the break and are 92% today.
Napoli did what they were projected to do in January and responded to the Inter loss by winning their next four by a combined 11-2. They didn’t add any transfers — they didn’t need to — and they assured that any vultures stayed far away from Victor Osimhen and other desirable young stars. No matter what Inter and others do moving forward, Napoli’s form will have to suffer for this to actually become a race. If they continue to perform as projected, they will cruise. This is the best story in Europe this season.
French Ligue 1 Since the restart… TEAM MATCHES POINTS PTS VS PROJ XG VS PROJ Marseille 6 16 0.6 (5) -0.1 (12) AS Monaco 6 14 0.5 (6) -0.1 (11) Toulouse 6 13 0.9 (2) 0.9 (2) Reims 6 12 0.9 (1) 0.6 (3) Clermont Foot 6 11 0.9 (3) 1.0 (1) Nice 6 11 0.7 (4) 0.6 (4) Paris Saint-Germain 6 10 -0.6 (18) -0.3 (14) Lille 6 9 -0.4 (15) 0.4 (5) Stade Rennes 6 9 -0.2 (12) 0.0 (9) Lens 6 9 -0.2 (13) -0.1 (13) Nantes 6 9 0.3 (7) 0.4 (6) Lyon 6 8 -0.5 (17) 0.0 (10) Lorient 6 7 0.2 (8) -0.7 (19) AC Ajaccio 6 6 -0.2 (14) -0.6 (17) Brest 6 6 -0.1 (10) -0.3 (15) Montpellier 6 6 0.0 (9) -0.6 (18) Troyes 6 5 -0.1 (11) -1.1 (20) Strasbourg 6 4 -0.5 (16) -0.4 (16) Angers 6 0 -1.2 (20) 0.1 (8) Auxerre 6 0 -0.9 (19) 0.4 (7)
PSG have two weeks to turn it on It fits that Bayern and Paris Saint-Germain are playing in the Champions League round of 16, as they’ve been basically the same team thus far in 2023. While they hung seven goals on sixth-division Pays de Cassel last week in the Coupe de France, PSG had scored only six goals in five matches against actual top-division clubs before Wednesday’s 3-1 win over 14th-place Montpellier. They lost at both Lens and Rennes and drew at home against Reims and their Football Manager-playing football manager , Will Still.
At the break, they were leading Lens by five points and everyone else by double digits, and now Marseille within five. (Lens blew a chance to lead the table with their own series of scattershot results: frustrating draws to Strasbourg and Troyes , and a Wednesday home loss to Nice.)
With Leo Messi making a slow return to the club after winning the World Cup, and with PSG’s dominant recent history, they were always going to be in danger of succumbing to a short attention span. (And to be sure, this is a genuine run of poor play, not bad fortune — their xG differential since the restart was just +0.2 per match, 10th in the league, before Wednesday’s win.) But during Feb. 8-14, they will play ascendant Marseille and Monaco teams before hosting Bayern.
Wednesday’s win needs to end up the start of a surge. If it doesn’t, a tailspin could be just around the corner.
