Even the most optimistic Geelong fan would feel some level of nervousness ahead of Friday night’s preliminary final. After all, their team has won just two of its past seven preliminary finals under coach Chris Scott.
But there’s a different feel about the 2022 version of the Cats.
And it’s not one slight tweak that’s made the difference.
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It’s a combination of several considered changes that has led to the most dominant, intimidating Geelong outfit in 10 years, conjuring a 14-game winning streak.
“This is a football club that are the best they’ve been placed coming into a prelim final in almost a decade,” four-time premiership Hawk Jordan Lewis told Fox Footy’s AFL 360 this week.
“I think it gives you great comfort. They were challenged in the first final by Collingwood, but I think for me that was the biggest hurdle to overcome rather than a prelim. To tick that first final box and get that away, get the week off and really set yourself.”
NEW ‘FINALS GAME STYLE’
Arguably the most refreshing aspect about the Cats this year has been their ball movement adjustment.
Scott pre-season flagged his team would have “a far bigger appetite for risk, a greater willingness to attack through the corridor, to handball forward, to play on”.
It’s paid dividends to date.
The Cats this season are ranked third for points scored and, just as importantly, first for scores per inside 50. Conversely, upcoming opponent Brisbane is ranked 11th for points against and 11th for opposition scores per inside 50.
Triple premiership forward Cameron Mooney last month spoke of how Geelong’s approach to ball movement in the past had failed to stand up come September, most notably against Richmond.
But speaking to foxfooty.com.au, Mooney said the new-found approach had allowed the Cats’ dangerous forward group to thrive.
“I always felt like there was a game style there that wasn‘t quite finals game style. They probably disagree with that, but that’s just me looking from outside in,” Mooney told foxfooty.com.au.
“I always thought with the ability to score they always went too slow … but this year, just the way they move the ball forward – not sideways, not backwards – it’s positive ball movement that allows this I think the best forward line in the competition to go to work.
“For years, I would watch that forward line be crowded with opposition players in finals because they moved the ball slow and then everybody would jump on Tom Hawkins’ back – and it’s very hard to kick goals when you’re outnumbered in your forward line.
“This year with better ball movement, more speed, more youth, I feel we’ll see a different result.”
The Cats also have the maturity to sense when they should defer to a Plan B and slow the tempo of matches down. More importantly, they have the skill to execute the change mid-game.
All are crucial traits come finals time.
BEAUTIFULLY ‘BIZARRE’ DEFENCE
Not only are the Cats moving the footy better, they’re defending it better.
According to Champion Data, 80 per cent of AFL games won are by the team that wins the turnover battle – and no team this season has been in the same realm as the Cats in this category.
Geelong is ranked No.1 in the league for both points scored off turnover and least number of points conceded off turnover. Only one team has finished an AFL season with that double top ranking: The 2019 Tigers, who ultimately thumped the Giants by 89 points in the Grand Final.
“As far as their game is concerned, they are absolutely primed,” St Kilda legend Nick Riewoldt told Fox Footy’s AFL 360 Plus on Thursday night.
As dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna highlighted on AFL 360 this week, the Cats are so hard to score against because “no two looks are ever the same” in their backline.
Montagna pointed to three separate pieces of vision from the qualifying win against Collingwood that showed the array of defensive structure strategies the Cats can implement in a match.
On one slow play, Tom Stewart and Mitch Duncan held their positions in a zone – despite multiple Collingwood players being free close to goal – to force a turnover.
On another slow Pies play, six Cats defenders were positioned almost in a straight line from one wing to the other. The sextet “squeezed the field” in an aggressive press – even though Jamie Elliott was unmanned and the closest player to the Magpies’ goalline – and forced the ball out of bounds.
Later in the game, the Cats were outnumbered four-on-two in their defensive 50 with the Pies moving the ball forward, this time at speed. Yet the Cats were able to scramble, close space and find a way to bring the footy to ground and create a loose ball.
Montagna highlighted how the Cats were also prepared to defend “back shoulder” one-on-one from stoppages, while they’re also happy to have two or three extra players behind the ball to give them the best chance to intercept and reset from their defensive 50.
“It’s random, but there’s so much method to it. It’s bizarre,” Montagna told AFL 360.
HEALTH AND PERSONNEL
Certain fresh faces, as well as players in new roles, have also given the Cats a different vibe.
Arguably the biggest inclusion has been Tyson Stengle, who hasn’t let the Cats down after being given a delisted free agency lifeline last year. He was the shock All-Australian bolter, booting 46 goals during the home and away season.
Stengle’s ability to hit the scoreboard has taken pressure of key forward duo Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron to be consistent goalkickers, while it’s also allowed the likes of Brad Close, Gary Rohan and Gryan Miers to thrive.
Cameron, himself, has arguably been the best player in the competition this season. He leads Geelong’s goalkicking with 62 goals, but his ability to get up the ground and impact around the ball – and sometimes deep in defence – has seen him have the most influential season of his career yet.
Mark Blicavs has also had a career-best season in his return to the Cats’ on-ball brigade. He’s become a genuine ruck-rover at 198cm, pinch-hitting in the ruck but also playing as a midfielder, sometimes even a tagger.
Sam De Koning, who’d played just one AFL match prior to this season, has become a reliable first-choice full-back, Zach Guthrie arguably the club’s most improved player and Max Holmes a major threat as a midfielder-forward, highlighted by the fact he’s kicked four goals and averaged 21 disposals from his past four games.
Then there’s Tom Atkins – an inspired addition to the Cats’ on-ball brigade that‘s brought a hard edge during the team’s winning run. His fourth-quarter performances against Port Adelaide (Round 19) then Collingwood (qualifying final) were match-defining.
Just as importantly, Atkins’ presence has eased the burden on veteran skipper Joel Selwood and, especially, superstar Patrick Dangerfield to set the tone for Geelong at the coalface.
“In previous years at this time of the year, we’ve spoken about Danger,” Riewoldt said. “‘Does he have to play mid? Does he have to play forward? He probably has to have 30 (disposals) and kick three (goals) for the Cats to get across the line.’
“They are so better balanced, particularly in front of the ball, with Cameron being in the form he’s in, with Stengle being able to hit the scoreboard, Gary Rohan’s a big inclusion to the side.
“The desperation is as high as ever, but the pressure has probably been as low on Danger, individually, as it has been since he got there.”
The lack of reliability on individuals – and their ability to bank wins – has allowed the Cats to rest, or ‘manage’, key players during the back-end of the season.
Selwood, Blicavs, Dangerfield, Duncan, Zach Tuohy and Isaac Smith have all been given at least one match on the sidelines in the weeks leading up to the finals series to freshen up.
“They’ve planned this to the week,” Riewoldt said. “They’ve been able to rest players, they’ve tinkered with their gamestyle so it stands up now at this time of the year.
“All of the planning that has been done by Chris Scott – and it required so much bravery to do it because they were coming from such a strong base – is about this weekend.”
WHERE LIONS CAN POUNCE
While the Cats enter Friday’s clash against Brisbane on the back of a ridiculous 14-game winning streak and ranked first in arguably the most important stats category in footy (points differential from turnovers), they are gettable.
Perhaps the best way for the Lions to upset the Cats on Friday night, as identified by Riewoldt on Fox Footy’s On The Couch, would be to expose the Cats at stoppages.
While Geelong is the AFL’s best team for points from turnover differential – no team since Champion Data has been recording stats has ever conceded less points off turnover – they’re not as strong at clearance. In fact, the Cats have lost the points differential from clearance count in 12 games this season.
On Friday night, the Cats come up against the league’s No. 1 scoring team from clearances in Brisbane.
“Your deficiencies and vulnerabilities in finals, they show up. Geelong haven’t got many … but the one part of their game where they’re not at the absolute top-end is the clearance game,” Riewoldt said.
“That’s great for Brisbane, because that’s a real strength of theirs.
“If the Lions are going to win this game, it has to be part of the ground. So it’s (Jarrod) Berry, (Hugh) McCluggage, Lachie Neale getting a hold of the Cats at stoppage and scoring from that source.”
The Lions would fancy their chances, too.
Not only have they won six of their past eight games overall, they’ve also matched up well against the Cats in their past three matches. The Lions narrowly lost to Geelong by one point in early 2021, thumped them by 44 points three months later then went down by 10 points in Round 4 earlier this year.
Then there’s the fact the Cats have played just one match in 26 days due to the pre-finals bye and their qualifying final win, whereas the Lions have had a bit more continuity.
But in a clear sign of the different air of confidence around the Cats this year, coach Scott said the club “wouldn’t change a thing” about its preparation.
“We’ve had a lot of time to think through how we would prepare with our training, so we go in feeling really confident in our preparation and really on top of the ground,” Scott told reporters this week.
“The guys that needed extra work have got it, the guys that needed a freshen up have got it.
“We feel a level of anxiousness that every competitor feels going into these games, but really confident in our preparation.”
