In an era where trade news consistently trumps, last year’s AFL exchange period was underwhelming to say the least.
But not in 2022, with dozens of players up for grabs.
Foxfooty.com.au analyses this year’s 10 most pivotal trade storylines, with many linked in an impending domino effect.
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LUKE JACKSON TO FREMANTLE
Young ruck star Luke Jackson a fortnight ago officially told Melbourne he wanted to be traded home to Western Australia.
In a statement, the Dees said they would now work with FremantleandWest Coast to “secure a suitable trade”. The Eagles believe they’re firmly in the frame, but the links between Jackson and the Dockers have been strong for months – and it’s understood Jackson’s preference is Freo.
Considering Jackson’s initial draft position (Pick 3 in 2019), AFL feats (2021 Rising Star winner and premiership player), athleticism, age (nearly 21), talent and versatility, the Demons will have a high starting price when they enter negotiations with the Dockers.
The Herald Sun reported the Demons want a top-10 pick and potentially another first-rounder in exchange for Jackson.
For the Dockers, the initial hurdle in that request is they have one of the thinnest hands at this year’s draft: Their natural first-round selection (Pick 13), as well as Geelong’s fourth-rounder (Pick 72). They’ll obviously have their own 2023 first-rounder to play with at the trade table, but the Dees will be aware that selection could be outside the top 10, while the Dockers will be aware of how important it might be for them to hold a first-round pick for next year considering the array of quality WA-based talent — such as Koltyn Tholstrup, Mitch Edwards, Daniel Curtin, Riley Hardeman, Clay Hall and Koen Sanchez — at the top of 2023 draft class.
A potential workaround for Fremantle would involve striking a deal with a rival club that holds a top-10 pick and offering it a split selection trade. The Herald Sun reported a club like Port Adelaide, which holds Pick 8, might be prepared to shuffle back in the draft order and help the Demons out.
So Pick 8 and a future first for Jackson – with some balancing via later pick swaps – could satisfy the Dees and get the deal done. But lots to play out there.
FREMANTLE EXODUS
If the Dockers did push for a top-10 selection, though, to help them land Jackson, they’d have to satisfy the club parting with that pick in a trade. And, at this stage, the Dockers have little to offer for an attractive ‘split’ deal.
This is where the expected loss of several other Fremantle players to rival clubs would help.
Key forward Rory Lobb wants to get to the Western Bulldogs. The Dockers have told him they’re not interested in entertaining that request, but precedent suggests early tough talk often softens before the trade deadline.
Even though Lobb is 29, he’s a 206cm key forward that’s contracted – and it’s a substantial contract at that – for next year and is coming off a career-best season where he topped the club’s goalkicking with 36 majors. So the Dockers would have every right to ask the Bulldogs for a first-round pick in return as a starting point.
Then there’s Blake Acres, who wants to join Carlton. The 26-year-old was one of Freo’s most improved players this year and in All-Australian contention at the mid-way point of the season. But he’s uncontracted beyond this season – and happy to move after the Dockers’ contract offer to him was unsatisfactory for him. Would the Dockers be happy with a second-round selection from the Blues?
The Dockers are also set to lose two players to North Melbourne: Wingman Darcy Tucker and key-position utility Griffin Logue. Tucker is tied to Fremantle until the end of next season and out of the best 22, but the Dockers have indicated they’d be prepared to trade him if an appropriate trade offer from a rival was forthcoming. Logue, selected by Freo with Pick 8 six years ago, has been part of the Dockers’ best 22 this year, but isn’t contracted for next year.
The Dockers could ask North for second-round picks in return for both Tucker and Logue. The latter might even be worthy of a first-rounder considering his versatility.
The final one is Lloyd Meek, who’s contracted to Fremantle until at least the end of the 2023 season but managed just 15 AFL games since being drafted in late 2017. The Dockers want to keep him, but he’s attracted interest from several clubs and reportedly wants to join Hawthorn. Freo might drive up its asking price, but it might have to settle for a later pick considering Meek’s lack of AFL exposure.
The tricky situation for the Dockers is that if they play serious hardball at the trade table for any of these aforementioned players, rivals could point out how Freo ‘lowballed’ these players when it presented its own contract offers to them and, therefore, the club’s respective asking prices shouldn’t be that high.
But if they can bring in a multitude of picks for the five players, it’d not only help a potential Dockers play for a top-10 pick to snare Jackson, it’d also help them satisfy the Suns to land Jeremy Sharp and Josh Corbett – although it seems Gold Coast’s priority is for a rival to take on the players’ salaries.
BRODIE GRUNDY TO MELBOURNE
Should the Dees get their multiple first-rounders in via Fremantle for losing Jackson, they’d be well placed to bring in Brodie Grundy, who now appears highly likely to leave Collingwood.
Grundy still has five years to run on a juicy contract at the Magpies, but the club is keen to offload his salary to a rival – and Melbourne is the front-runner.
After the potential Jackson deal, the Dees could use one of those first-rounders to strike a trade with Collingwood for Grundy.
Considering the 28-year-old is a dual best and fairest and dual All-Australian, he’d arguably command more compensation than just a first-round pick.
But Melbourne’s ability to take on his salary would be a key aspect to trade negotiations. The Magpies are prepared to pay a portion of Grundy’s salary – conceivably up to $350,000 per year – and Melbourne earlier this year was said to be prepared to offer Jackson a new deal worth up to $750,000 for a couple of seasons.
Some, or all, of that cash could instead be used to pay the rest of Grundy’s wage.
TOM MITCHELL TO COLLINGWOOD
One of the most intriguing storylines to follow over the next couple of weeks will be the future of Hawthorn midfielder and 2018 Brownlow Medallist Tom Mitchell, who’s weighing up a trade request that would see him join a third AFL club.
While Mitchell is considering a move, Hawthorn is also keen for the star to explore his options given the salary cap space a trade would free up.
Mitchell, who’s contracted for another year to Hawthorn, wants to get to Collingwood. But whether a deal can be struck remains uncertain.
The Herald Sun reported a Mitchell-Magpies move depends on whether the Hawks would be happy to receive a middle or late draft pick as compensation, as well as how much of Mitchell’s salary they’d be prepared to pay.
Mitchell has a year to run on a contract worth more than $800,000.
If Jordan De Goey does leave, after rejecting the Magpies’ most recent contract offer over issues with the behaviour clauses within it, that would free up a large chunk of the cap.
De Goey has an offer on the table from St Kilda, believed to be more lucrative, but Collingwood and De Goey want to work something out and you suspect they will in the end.
THE OTHER COLLINGWOOD TARGETS
Mitchell’s possible arrival and Grundy’s highly likely departure comes with the Pies also set to bring in several other players from rival clubs.
Lions free agent Dan McStay will join the club on a five-year deal worth close to $650,000 per season. Giant Bobby Hill and Crow Billy Frampton are both expected to come to the Pies, while Suns ball magnet Brayden Fiorini looms as another acquisition as part of Gold Coast’s salary dump.
The latter three shouldn’t cost the Pies much at the trade table – particularly Fiorini, who the Suns would be happy to off-load to free up cap space. They have three selections in the 40s via rival clubs – Picks 42 (via Hawthorn), 47 (via Western Bulldogs) and 48 (via Richmond) – plus their future picks to play with.
JOSH DUNKLEY TO BRISBANE
Brisbane had a big win last week when off-contract Bulldog Josh Dunkley turned down significant offers from the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide to request a trade to the Lions.
Landing Dunkley, though, while having an eye towards a key draft looms as a tricky task for the Lions.
The Lions are tied to two of the best draft prospects of this year’s class in father-son duo Will Ashcroft and Jaspa Fletcher. Ashcroft, who last week claimed the Larke Medal as the best player of the AFL Under 18 national championships, is almost certain to attract a bid at Pick 1, while Fletcher’s draft range is between Picks 15 and 25, according to recruiters
It means the Lions will need to satisfy the Dogs in a Dunkley trade while also banking selections to match inevitably early rival club bids on Ashcroft and Fletcher.
Brisbane will enter the trade period holding Picks 15, 33, 44 (via Port Adelaide) and 69 in the draft. According to the draft value index, those four picks total 2086 points. But if North Melbourne holds Pick 1 and bids on Ashcroft then, the Lions would need 2400 points to match with the 20 per cent father-son discount. Then there’s Fletcher, who could cost the Lions between 890 and 730 points… when they already don’t have enough points for Ashcroft.
The Lions though have time and a few routes to explore.
They’ll be compensated for losing free agent Dan McStay. Where that pick will land remains uncertain – due to the AFL’s secret herbs and spices formula – but an end-of-first-round compo pick would give them just over 900 points, while an end-of-second-round selection would net them around 500 points. There’s also a chance restricted free agent Darcy Gardiner departs. A compensation selection would likely be in the second or third round.
That would give them enough points to match Ashcroft and, potentially, Fletcher bids. Alternatively they could go into draft deficit that would see their first pick at next year’s draft be pushed back.
As for Dunkley, Dogs list boss Sam Power last week made it clear how much the club rates him and wanted to retain him. Power said Dunkley was “at the peak of his powers in a football sense” after his “career-best season in 2022”, hence the club “tabled an attractive contract offer for him to continue with us for the long term”.
To secure Dunkley, Brisbane‘s future first-rounder mightn’t be enough, with the Dogs expected to target two first-round picks for him, according to AFL Media. Although Brisbane will hold some power at the trade table and could argue their suggested trade – a future first and second-rounder, for instance – is fair given Dunkley isn’t contracted and the Dogs will desperately want to be compensated for losing a player that topped their Brownlow Medal count.
The Lions could use future selections to land Dunkley. Alternatively, they could split their top 2022 selection (Pick 15) in a separate trade with a club that not only wants to get into the early part of next year’s draft, but also has second and third-round picks to offer back to Brisbane. It means the Lions would bank more points to pay for Ashcroft and Fletcher.
The Lions could also split Pick 33 in a trade and bank several later picks that way to help them acquire more points.
Alternatively, any Brisbane players that want out for a better opportunity at a rival club might be encouraged to leave.
NORTH ARRIVALS – AND THE PROSPECT OF A PICK 1 TRADE
Alastair Clarkson – of course pending the outcome of the Hawthorn investigation – mightn’t be the only significant inclusion at North Melbourne for 2023.
Despite their horror 2022 campaign that ended with a wooden spoon, the Kangaroos have been linked to an array of players ahead of the trade period.
As aforementioned, Dockers duo Darcy Tucker and Griffin Logue want to get to North. But contracted Saints pair Bradley Hill and Hunter Clark have also been linked to an Arden St move.
The Roos reportedly have strong interest in Clark, who’s had a topsy-turvy Saints stint since being taken with Pick 7 in the 2017 draft. A classy yet tough 23-year-old that was taken with a top-10 pick, Clark is contracted until the end of 2023.
Hill is reportedly open to joining a fourth AFL club, despite being three years into a lucrative six-year St Kilda deal signed reportedly worth around $900,000 per season. His manager Colin Young said on Monday that appears less likely to occur.
Should Clark and Hill both want out, the Saints, undoubtedly, would want to be well compensated, not only for losing two contracted players in their best 22, but also because they’re keen to get back into this year’s draft.
The Roos have been given an assistance package by the AFL that necessitates trading, so they’ll send out a future second and future third-round pick for players. The other 2022 selections outside the first round they have are Picks 55, 66 (via Richmond), 73.
But they do have Pick 1 – and rival recruiters believe the Kangaroos are open to trading that selection this year considering Ashcroft, the clear Pick 1 favourite, will join Brisbane as a father-son prospect and that this year’s top 30 draft crop is seen as relatively even. Rival clubs wouldn’t be surprised if North split Pick 1 and brought in multiple first-round selections to add to their list.
GIANTS DUO TO RICHMOND
Just when you thought Richmond was on the verge of slipping out of the flag race, it makes plays for two GWS stars to bolster its midfield brigade.
Giants duo Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto have their sights set on landing at Richmond. Hopper has another year left on his deal, while Taranto is out of contract but arguably has more points on the board than his teammate considering he won the Giants’ best and fairest in their 2019 Grand Final year.
The Tigers should be fine to fit the pair in from a salary cap perspective, considering veterans Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin have already done their part in and re-signed for 2023 on less money.
The deal to help Hopper and Taranto land at the Tigers could see the latter part with their first three selections in this year’s draft – Picks 12, 19 (via North Melbourne) and 30 – as well as their future first-rounder.
Whether the Tigers would be prepared to trade completely out of this year’s draft – and the start of next year’s draft – to land two gun on-ballers and help keep them in the flag window remains to be seen.
JUNIOR RIOLI TO PORT ADELAIDE
West Coast a fortnight ago said they’d been left “bitterly disappointed” after Junior Rioli informed the club of his desire to join Port Adelaide via a trade.
It’s understood Port Adelaide has offered Rioli a four-year deal worth around $2 million in total.
Eagles chief executive Trevor Nisbett stressed the club viewed Rioli as a player that “has high end talent, is a premiership player and is in the prime of his career, having played just 51 games of senior football”.
The key to unlocking the Rioli trade could be the compensation selection the Power receive for losing free agent Karl Amon to Hawthorn.
7 News Melbourne reported last month Amon was set to sign a four-year deal, which had previously been mooted to be worth up to $650,000 per season. While it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what the pick would be for losing a player to that sort of contract offer, industry sources wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a second-round compensation pick, which may satisfy the Eagles in a Rioli trade.
Although somewhat complicating trade somewhat is the fact West Coast already holds Port Adelaide’s second-round pick. The two clubs struck a trade during last year’s draft that saw the Power move up the order to help them land Josh Sinn at Pick 12, with the Eagles moving down two spots but netting the Power’s future second-rounder.
IZAK RANKINE TO ADELAIDE
Just as the Gold Coast Suns had begun to flip their list fortunes, Izak Rankine requests a trade to Adelaide.
But the Crows will have to cough up decent compensation, both financially and at the trade table, to get the livewire forward to the club.
Rankine is set to sign a five-year deal with Adelaide worth around $850,000 per season, which should make him the highest-paid player at the Crows next year.
All reports indicate the Suns will want draft picks as part of the Rankine deal.
The Crows hold Picks 5 and 23 – and the Suns will almost certainly ask that Pick 5 be part of the deal. It wouldn’t surprise if they also asked for another first-rounder to be involved, considering Rankine was, firstly, a first-round draftee himself and, secondly, a brilliant goalsneak that showed more than glimpses in 2022.
The Suns would be well positioned to sweeten the deal for the Crows as they also hold three second-round picks and two third-rounders. They should also receive picks back for losing Brayden Fiorini and Jack Bowes in likely salary dump deals, while Jeremy Sharp and Josh Corbett could also exit.
