The AFL’s biggest individual award will have its winner on Sunday night, with Brownlow Medal night back in Melbourne in 2022.
Football’s night of nights took place in Perth last year as Victoria grappled with Covid-19 lockdowns, but the ceremony has returned to Melbourne and been moved to Sunday night to avoid any scheduling conflicts with Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral.
While all eyes will be on the overall leading vote-getters and eventual winner, many punters will be keeping a close watch on who polls best for each club.
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Here’s a full guide to every club’s Brownlow count including each team’s best chance to win it and who else will be in the mix, with overall chance of winning odds via Pointsbet (correct as of Wednesday 6pm).
ADELAIDE CROWS
No surprises here. Despite missing the opening two games of the season, Rory Laird catapulted himself into the game‘s elite midfield brigade in 2022, posting some simply extraordinary numbers to continue his runaway success since being moved from half-back by coach Matthew Nicks. Ben Keays was another who enjoyed a career-best year in the midfield, posting some brilliant numbers before he tapered off in the final few rounds of the year. Taylor Walker was crucial to the Crows‘ fortunes since coming back into the side in round four, kicking 47 goals from 18 games.
Favourite: Rory Laird ($67)
BRISBANE LIONS
Their favourite is the favourite to win the whole thing: Lachie Neale. After a year of battling niggles, Neale returned to full strength in 2022 and arguably played even better than in the 2020 campaign that delivered him his first Brownlow Medal. He hasn‘t kicked too many goals, but the influence he’s had in scoring chains and in the middle has been gamebreaking on several occasions this season. Without Neale, Hugh McCluggage is the clear standout, who had a great season on the wing to launch himself into contention. Zac Bailey had a few standout games this season, most notably his six-goal haul against Gold Coast and Charlie Cameron kicked 47 goals and should get a few votes.
Favourite: Lachie Neale ($3.10)
CARLTON
Patrick Cripps is among the favourites for the award and should dominate proceedings, particularly early in the count. His ability to kick goals in the first half of the season was fantastic and his leadership was on full display as the Blues surged to start the year. It‘s likely he’s leading the count early in the night and then has to be run down by rivals. Sam Walsh was brilliant in his return from a syndesmosis injury but it will be a mighty tough ask to get close to his remarkable tally of 31 votes from last year. The Brownlow Medal count has rarely recognised forwards in recent years but Charlie Curnow has to pull in some votes for his performances en route to the Coleman Medal. Sam Docherty also had patches of blistering footy.
Favourite: Patrick Cripps ($5.50)
COLLINGWOOD
With such a well-rounded team, the Pies will be a tough one to predict. Jack Crisp appears the most likely to poll well, doing plenty of good work through the middle of the ground. There‘s also first-year wonder Nick Daicos, who could poll very well at his first count, especially given the external hype around him has been there from day one. Jordan De Goey had some great games but also missed several, which hurts his cause. Josh Daicos is another who played well, while Patrick Lipinski was nominated as an All-Australian candidate by the club.
Favourite: None under $251
ESSENDON
It should be a one-way count as far as Essendon is concerned, with Zach Merrett a very warm favourite to poll the most votes. Darcy Parish missed too many games to make any sort of run. Peter Wright had a very good season up forward and the smokey is Mason Redman, who had a career-best season. Merrett though is the clear standout, putting together a consistent season.
Favourite: None under $251
FREMANTLE
Andrew Brayshaw is one of the Brownlow Medal favourites, so it‘d be some sort of shock if he doesn’t even lead vote-getters in his own team! Brayshaw had a very consistent season with perhaps a slight dropoff after the bye. Will Brodie is the next best and should cap a breakout year with more than a few votes. Caleb Serong’s backhalf of 2022 was particularly impressive. Rory Lobb and Sean Darcy will have a couple of good results here and there.
Favourite: Andrew Brayshaw ($8)
GEELONG
It‘s odd for a forward to poll the most votes for his club, but that’s what may well be the case for Geelong, with Jeremy Cameron’s outstanding season surely recognised in the count. Aiding Cameron‘s cause is how far he gets up the ground and the unique skillset at his disposal. Next up would be Cam Guthrie in the midfield, then perhaps Tom Stewart for some of his commanding performances in defence before his substitution.
Favourite: Jeremy Cameron ($101)
GOLD COAST
Touk Miller would be the unbackable favourite to poll the most votes for the Suns, being a regular contributor and playing at a high level for virtually the entire season. Jarrod Witts had a career-best year in the ruck amid his injury comeback and was particularly good in the first half of the season. Noah Anderson served as a great partner-in-crime to Miller and should poll a few votes too.
Favourite: Touk Miller ($9)
GWS GIANTS
It was a disappointing year overall for the Giants and they likely won‘t poll too much. When they do, Josh Kelly could be best placed to tally. The dark horse would be Stephen Coniglio, who thrived under caretaker coach Mark McVeigh and a move back into the middle. Tom Green started the year brilliantly before spluttering later on.
Favourite: None under $251
HAWTHORN
It‘s a tough one to pick at Hawthorn, with many bit players but no genuine standouts. James Sicily had a fantastic year after an ACL rupture ruined his 2021 season. Tom Mitchell had some quiet games but when he fired he was very noticeable and has form in polling votes as a former Brownlow medallist. Jai Newcombe’s grunt work and burst would‘ve been very noticeable throughout the year. Jack Gunston is another who was vital when he was out on the park.
Favourite: None under $251
MELBOURNE
It‘s a two-horse race between Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca, but Oliver probably takes the cake. Petracca could‘ve polled more strongly had he converted more of his shots at goal, which he was found wanting in desperately. Oliver is the one to beat even though he played one game less than Petracca due to injury. Max Gawn will poll votes and Angus Brayshaw should go well late given how well he performed once moved back into the midfield. Jack Viney too should be up for some votes following his resurgence.
Favourite: Clayton Oliver ($3.60)
NORTH MELBOURNE
Luke Davies-Uniacke was phenomenal this season and started to grow into the hype that has been around him for some time. His backend of the season was particularly impressive. Jy Simpkin won his second best and fairest but Davies-Uniacke probably had a better season. It‘s slim pickings other than that in a bleak year, with Nick Larkey set for a few votes for some of his standout performances this season.
Favourite: None under $251
PORT ADELAIDE
Connor Rozee’s move into the midfield on a more regular basis will likely prove a winner at the count, with the young gun set to get most of the Power’s votes. Reigning Brownlow medallist Ollie Wines had a decent season but it wasn’t to his 2021 standard, which can be said for most of Port Adelaide in general. It’s slim pickings other than those two, with perhaps Travis Boak and Dan Houston polling at stages.
Favourite: Connor Rozee ($101)
RICHMOND
Shai Bolton’s midfield-forward split, coupled with the breathtaking moments of brilliance he displays, surely caught the umpires’ eyes throughout 2022. He’ll be one to watch for the Tigers throughout the night and Dion Prestia is right in the mix for most votes after his brilliant season, which is made even more remarkable by the fact he was injured in three of his 18 regular season games, giving him effectively 15 weeks to tally. It’s a testament to his importance to the side when fully fit. Tom Lynch arguably had a career-best season and some big hauls on the scoreboard surely see him rewarded.
Favourite: Dion Prestia ($201)
ST KILDA
Usually Jack Steele is the one to beat here, but he missed a stretch in the middle of the season due to surgery on his AC joint. Because of that, Brad Crouch could be the one to jump ahead given his impressive season. The breakout player for the Saints was Jack Sinclair, but it remains to be seen how much love the umpires give to those in that position. Jade Gresham should poll very well early.
Favourite: None under $251
SYDNEY SWANS
Callum Mills burst out of the blocks this season and should be leading the Swans’ count for most of the night, but the late-season surge from Chad Warner surely sees him soar up the leaderboard. Apart from those two, Luke Parker was great in the midfield once again and Isaac Heeney will have at least a couple of three-vote performances in there.
Favourite: Callum Mills ($67)
WEST COAST EAGLES
There won’t be many votes given to the Eagles given how horrible their season was, with wins few and far between. The now-retired Josh Kennedy could feature here or there given he still hit the scoreboard. He may very well end his career with a three-vote game for his eight-goal haul against Adelaide! Tom Barrass had an outstanding season with Jeremy McGovern injured for much of it, but defenders rarely get the love they deserve on Brownlow Medal night.
Favourite: None under $251
WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Dogs are a team primed to poll well at the Brownlow Medal count given the number of midfielders they have rolling through the engine room. Josh Dunkley had a good season, but it would be a tad bizarre to see him lead the side’s votes potentially after making a trade request. Jack Macrae started well but tapered off, while Marcus Bontempelli simply couldn’t get his body right consistently enough. Tom Liberatore’s work at the coalface is unbelievable and deserves to be recognised.
Favourite: None under $251
