Europe’s summer transfer window is fast approaching and, with domestic leagues ending within a month, teams are starting to think hard about which players they want to bring in.
With most of the top leagues able to start doing business from July 1 — England‘s Premier League opened the 2022 window on June 10 but clubs could only sign players from domestic leagues for three weeks — it won’t be long before the money starts flowing again.
In 2022, Premier League clubs broke the transfer spending record for a season in the summer window alone, spending £1.9 billion ($2.2bn) during the period, according to finance company Deloitte. The previous record of £1.86bn ($2.5bn) for a whole season was set in 2017-18, while it also beat the previous summer spending record of £1.4bn ($1.6bn) set in 2017.
So what could happen this summer? We asked some of ESPN’s correspondents and writers for their predictions.
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What one big deal do you expect to happen?
Alex Kirkland: Real Madrid are optimistic of beating Manchester City to the signing of Borussia Dortmund midfielder Jude Bellingham, sources have told ESPN. Negotiations have advanced and Madrid’s chief scout Juni Calafat and managing director Jose Angel Sanchez have been key, while Bellingham’s desire to make the move to the Santiago Bernabeu has helped Madrid maintain belief that a deal will be possible. Indeed, sources said that City’s wage offer to Bellingham is larger so it down to the 19-year-old to decide. However, Dortmund’s transfer valuation of around €150 million won’t be met and Madrid are looking to pay around €100m with add-ons.
Whatever happens with Bellingham, Madrid will certainly try to sign a centre-forward. Karim Benzema‘s injury struggles — which he now appears to have finally overcome, just in time for the business end of the season — have left no doubt that Madrid need an alternative to help manage the 35-year-old’s body at this stage of his career. Benzema himself, coach Carlo Ancelotti and club executives all agree that a target man is required. A single candidate has yet to emerge, with the club still weighing up a wide range of options. It’s a position that Madrid have struggled to fill in the past, though. Remember spending €60m to sign Luka Jovic?
Rob Dawson: Dortmund haven’t given up hope of keeping Bellingham and Real Madrid’s interest is detailed above, but there is still hope at Manchester City that the England international will be wearing a blue shirt next season. He’s seen what manager Pep Guardiola has done for his former teammate Erling Haaland (51 goals in 45 games) and there is no better place in the world to improve as a player and win trophies while you’re doing it. Liverpool have already been put off by Dortmund’s valuation and City can put together a financial package that very few other clubs can match. If City can sign Haaland, they can certainly land Bellingham.
Mark Ogden: Sources have told ESPN that Lionel Messi will leave Paris Saint-Germain on a free transfer this summer and, while there is long-standing interest from former club Barcelona and Major League Soccer side Inter Miami, the financial power of the Saudi Arabian Pro League will see the Argentina captain move to Al Hilal.
The emotional pull of a return to Barcelona may tempt the 35-year-old, but nobody outside a very small circle of executives at Camp Nou believe that Barca can finance the deal — they might not even believe it themselves. A move to Inter Miami would be a gamechanger for MLS and the club has made no secret of its desire to sign Messi, but again, the financial equation just wouldn’t stack up for the league or team.
So unless a major Premier League side are prepared to break their wage structure for a fading star — his Champions League performances for PSG are a better gauge of Messi’s current ability than his 2022 World Cup displays — then Messi will head to Saudi Arabia to renew his rivalry with Al Nassr’s Cristiano Ronaldo. Messi has already made a fortune from his ultra-successful career, but the financial rewards on offer in Saudi Arabia will make it difficult for him to move elsewhere.
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WEDNESDAY, May 3 (all times ET)
• Valencia vs. Villarreal (1:30 p.m.)
• Stuttgart vs. Frankfurt (2:30 p.m.)
• Atletico Madrid vs. Cadiz (4 p.m.)
• Getafe vs. Celta Vigo (4 p.m.)
THURSDAY, MAY 4 (all times ET)
• Sevilla vs. Espanyol (1:30 p.m.)
• Girona vs. Mallorca (1:30 p.m.)
• Athletic Club vs. Real Betis (3:30 p.m.)
• Rayo vs. Valladolid (3:30 p.m.)
FRIDAY, MAY 5 (all times ET)
• Mainz vs. Schalke (2:30 p.m.)
Ogden: Chelsea will want to be busy, but they will quickly discover how tough it is to offload players on huge contracts, so my tip is for Manchester United to be more active in the market. United will have a similar problem to Chelsea in that they have high-earners who need to be moved on, but the good news for manager Erik ten Hag is that the majority of the players he wants to transfer out are approaching the end of the long-term deals they were given three or four years ago.
The one tricky deal to pull off will be moving on defender Harry Maguire, who has two years to run on a £200,000-a-week contract. Having signed for £80m from Leicester in 2019, United will have to accept a significant loss on that outlay and also face subsidising Maguire’s wages. But United still have plenty of players who could leave including Victor Lindelof, Scott McTominay, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Phil Jones, Donny van de Beek and Anthony Elanga. They will also look to sign at least three new players, so Old Trafford will be busy this summer, regardless of whether the club has new owners or not.
Dawson: Man City could end the season with a Treble of Premier League, Champions League and FA Cup but there are still plans to refresh the squad over the summer. Guardiola would like a central midfielder (namely, Bellingham) and the long-term issue at left-back is also set to be solved. Oleksandr Zinchenko was allowed to leave for Arsenal last summer and Joao Cancelo departed for Bayern Munich on loan in January, meaning that centre-back Nathan Ake has had to fill in for most of the season. It’s possible that Ilkay Gundogan, Bernardo Silva and Kalvin Phillips could all leave in the next window which would leave City looking for more than one midfielder.
Jon Molyneux-Carter: Liverpool are in need of an overhaul after a very disappointing season. Jurgen Klopp’s side pulled out of a deal for Bellingham because they didn’t want to spend their entire budget on one player, so expect a number of arrivals and departures at Anfield — particularly in midfield. Roberto Firmino, James Milner, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Naby Keita are set to leave, with a host of players including Chelsea‘s Mason Mount, Sporting CP‘s Manuel Ugarte, Brighton’s Alexis Mac Allister and Bayern’s Ryan Gravenberch linked to replace them.
Marsden: The answer is always Barcelona, surely?! The drama has already started at Camp Nou with the confirmation that director of football Mateu Alemany will leave the club this summer. Alemany, who will move to Aston Villa, has committed to finishing the plan he has already drawn up for the upcoming transfer window, though, and speaking last weekend promised a “very interesting summer” at the Catalan club.
Even while targeting free agents — Athletic Club‘s Inigo Martinez, City’s Gundogan and PSG’s Messi — Barca still need to make at least €150m of savings to be able to register any new arrivals under LaLiga’s salary cap. Therefore, offers will be considered for several players. Franck Kessie, Eric Garcia, Ansu Fati, Ferran Torres and Raphinha are some of the names who could leave, but Europe’s wealthier clubs may want to test Barca’s resolve to hang on to some of their best players. If Barca do raise some money, they are keen to sign a right-back, a striker, a left winger and possibly another midfielder on top of the aforementioned free transfers. More drama awaits.
Kirkland: Real Madrid’s business will depend on how much they end up spending to sign a centre-forward and whether they land Bellingham. A €5m deal to bring academy product Fran Garcia back from Rayo Vallecano to provide competition at left-back is already in place.
Elsewhere in Spain, LaLiga clubs’ limited spending power will dictate their movements. Atletico Madrid‘s finances have been squeezed more than most, and their summer planning so far has been restricted to agreeing a free transfer move for Leicester’s Caglar Soyuncu. Real Sociedad could look to invest some of their Champions League windfall if they finish fourth, while Sevilla have plenty of work to do after flirting with relegation thanks to sporting director Monchi’s botched transfer dealings last summer.
